Saturday, November 19, 2016

Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd



CMP = 148



Omkar Speciality Chemicals Ltd. (OSCL) is primarily engaged in the production of specialty chemicals and pharma intermediates. Diversified portfolio of over 200 products which include inorganic intermediates of Selenium derivatives, Iodine derivatives, Molybdenum derivatives, Cobalt derivatives, Bismuth derivatives, Tungsten derivatives and the organic intermediates include Tartaric acid derivatives and derivative of several other rare elements.  These products find niche applications in various industries like pharmaceutical industry, chemical industry, glass industry, cosmetics, ceramic, pigments and cattle and poultry feeds.






OSCL has 4 subsidiary companies (Lasa Labs, Rishichem Research Ltd, Urdhwa Chemicals and Desh Chemicals) with 9 manufacturing units in state of Maharashtra.





OSCL is importing and exporting  several raw material from and to abroad. Its location of all manufacturing is close proximity to consumption area of product or raw material and to the  ports like Dharamtar, Jaigad and JNPT besides connectivity to road and rail.  It will saves transportation time and costs significantly.






OSCL has a strong and well diversified customer base developed over the last 3 decades from different industry segments like pharmaceuticals, chemicals, glass, cosmetics, ceramic pigments, poultry, veterinary feed etc. Further the enhanced processes to cater to the specific needs of the customers gives OSCL an added advantage. Some of its major customers in the pharmaceutical segment include Cipla, Ranbaxy, Glenmark, Wockhardt and Ipca and Dr Reddy’s being its most vital customers in pharmaceuticals segment. Its other prominent customers in chemicals segment are Clariant-UK, BASF, Dupont, Asahi India Glass, Suguna Poultry, Venky’s India, Gharda Chemicals etc.






OSCL has good R&D capabilities and infrastructure to develop new high value added products and APIs.  R&D facilities are accredited by Department of Scientific and Industrial Research (DSIR) recognition. Mr.  Pravin Herlekar himself  chemical  Engineer  from  the  IIT Mumbai and he has a team of experienced scientist. With various product and process patents filed, OSCL’s Intellectual Property (IP) plays an integral role in developing a rich patent portfolio of the company. It  has filed claim for 18 patents of which 3 have already been granted. OSCL has acquired Rishichem Research Ltd in 2010 to strengthen its R&D. It has developed several new niche value added products like 5 iodo 2 methylbenzoic acid (used in anti-diabetic & brain tumour imaging),  di-azo salicylic acid (used in veterinary APIs), iodo benzoic acid (used as a pharma intermediate). Selenium anhydride (used in steroid manufacturing), cuprous iodide (used in tyre manufacturing) etc.



http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/370607F0_C6AF_4012_9187_D0B6B85B04AA_182226.pdf






OSCL management has initiated process to demerge Lasa Laboratory in March 2016 and it is expected to be completed in March 2017.



http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/982350B0_957E_4346_BBD4_DC4E8546CED4_153801.pdf


Investment Rationale



Increased restrictions due environmental issues have forced the chemical and API manufacturers to close unsafe units in China. It has created demand and supply gap and sharp rise in chemicals prices. Specialty chemicals are key ingredients for pharmaceuticals (APIs) manufacturing and APIs are main raw material for drugs manufacturing thus both are going to be key growth driver for OSCL and LASA.


Companies with higher production capacities will benefit most. OSCL has already got environment clearance for unit 5 which will double its current operational production capacity from  5,350 metric tonnes to 10,750 metric tonnes in next 4 -5 months. Company has expanded its capacity from 950 metric tonnes in FY 2011E to 10,750 metric tonnes FY 2016E.


Recently OSCL has posted best ever result for H1. Aggressive capacity expansion and strong R&D work in past 3- 4 years has started yielding reward and sales growth is coming through niche value-added chemicals.






http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/953A9FD0_F62E_400F_98ED_AB04FD2F91B2_170133.pdf


OSCL has developed high entry barrier manufacturing processes for new niche high value added molecules for specialty chemicals and APIs. The company is also working in new fields like retroviral protease inhibitors (anti HIV) and oncology space. All these technical capabilities gives it clear edge over its competitors.

Lasa Lab (Veterinary API) to contributes higher revenue due to capacity expansion & also company has developed advanced intermediaries in Iodine Derivative segment like Anti-Diabetic which is in process of receiving approvals & will start commercial production post approval in coming quarters.

OSCL will continue to launch new high value added products, which find application in various end user markets, which offer significant growth opportunities to the company going forward.


OSCL has large product portfolio and strong customer base which covers several sectors. It has insulated the company from risk over dependency on specific sector or customer.

OSCL does not have direct competitor and it has an edge over its peers mainly on the back of its R&D focus, operational flexibility, product diversity and its ability to launch new products with IPR filing. 


Even though OSCL has very strong fundamental but in the last 3 -4 months it has not participated in rally of chemical sector  because promoters have pledged and sold some portion of their shareholding.


It is very easy to understand from above mentioned investment rationale that in the past 6 years OSCL has acquired 4 companies, increased its manufacturing capacity 10 x fold, product portfolio increased from 80 to 200 +,  patent filing for 18 product and 3 approval, same time company has paid good dividend every years since listing in 2011. Working capital cycle is on the high side because major raw materials like Iodine and Selenium are imported from Chile with transit time more than 2 months. Now demerger and listing of Lasa Lab is in process. All these activities are need significant capex and sufficient working capital to day-to-day business operations. Company has not gone for any enhancement in working capital or equity dilution. 

In this case if promoters has pledged or sold some portion of their shareholding to meet the business requirement than nothing wrong with it. In fact company has created huge asset and intellectual property in past 6 years. In future they have option to buyback or issue preferential shares against loan of 27.2 Cr to the company. Pledge shares will released  before end of December 2016 as per guidelines given by management. 


http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/27CE8A56_19BF_44DD_95EB_151271EF4FF9_145815.pdf


Conclusion


Omkar Speciality Chemicals is one of the most trusted name for quality products and serving to all major customers like Cipla, Ranbaxy, Glenmark, Biocon and Dr Reddy’s being its most vital customers in pharmaceuticals segment.  Its customers in chemicals segment are Clariant-UK, BASF, Dupont, Asahi India Glass. Suguna Poultry. The company excels in supplying products to both the segments which have stringent quality concerns, reflecting its significant supplier credibility. 

Company has received environmental clearance for Unit V of Chiplun and expected to start commercial production in coming quarter. Overall it will increase the production capacity of Lasa laboratory more than double and sales growth is expected to grow at a robust rate in future.  Listing of Lasa laboratory is expected to be completed in Q4  it is going unlock decent value for investors. 

OSCL has corrected heavily in recent market correction due to demonetisation. At  cmp 148 it is providing best investment opportunity for short term as well as for long term. Allocation can be given upto 10%.



680 comments:

  1. Grt sound and strong fundamental of the company in this volatile MKT.

    ReplyDelete
  2. A big thank you for this one. Will market correct further. As I told you earlier my HDFC guy insists on 7500 as a certainty in the uncertainty. your views

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But still HDFC has not sold its mutual fund holding. They are buying more. If your HDFC guy will understand this process than definitely he will quit the job and start the business because it is very easy to make the money from stock market.

      Market correction is solely linked with demonetisation and market will bounce back very strongly once cash liquidity will improve. It will take another 10 -15 days.

      Delete
  3. Aditya birla fashion purchase Kar Sakura hu Kya ?
    3 year ka Kya target h

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thank a lot man.. can I pls let us know how much can we expect for both the short term and long term

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it can give around 100 return in one year and 300% in 3-4 years.

      Delete
    2. Thank u so much dolly jee.....

      Delete
  5. Thanks dollyji for all the efforts which u put for small investors

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thank you for your commitment towards to small investors....

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi
    Thank you for the recommendation. Volumes of this stock seems on lower side. What could be the reason for this? Can you kindly let me know.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock has enough liquidity and trading near 2 year low

      Delete
  8. is it advisable to sell skm egg bought at rs
    95 & buy Omkar Speciality Chemicals?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No comparison between above stocks. Definitely Omkar Speciality Chemicals much better option. You have to take decision about it because SKM still trading 20% above our buying target.

      Delete
  9. Madam can omkar be better pick in comparison to sudarshan,meghmani,clariant chem etc?how much return we can expect?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, it can give much better % return than above mentioned stock. It can give around 100 return in one year and at least 300% in 3-4 years.

      Delete
  10. Can I switch Shree pushkar with omkar.which has better future growth?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are very good companies in their business segment. Buying price is important and at cmp Omkar is better option because you will also get shares of Lasa Lab (200+ crore turnover pharmaceutical company).

      Delete
  11. Thanks a lot for the recommendation mam. Is abfrl a value buy at a CPM of 132₹.how much can I allocate in my portfolio. What is the time period ?
    Thank you.
    Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can buy it and keep allocation around 20%

      Delete
  12. Dolly-ji, thanks again for an excellent opportunity - you are really putting in a lot of effort & finding these gems in an otherwise frothy small/midcap market. Thank you!

    Some thoughts / Qs
    a. OSCL seems to be occupying a niche in the value-chain.
    b. Some competitors, but (much?) smaller product portfolios
    c. competitors have lesser cost advantages as compared to OSCL?
    d. OSCL's 30+ year history gives it long-standing & diverse relationships - which is also a big barrier for other speciality chemical companies?

    1. Am trying to understand - if it is really quite hard for a competitor to replace what OSCL offers its customers - then OSCL is actually a very good business & may even trade at a premium to this sector later?

    2. Debt has increased ~2x last 4 years, you think they will have any further needs to borrow more?

    3. Any chance of working capital to reduce?

    Thank you for your time..

    Uday

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also adding to Uday's point... The Shareholding has continuously gone down.

      Last few Quarters:
      Mar-16: 65.70%
      Jun-16: 56.18%
      Sep-16: 53.09%

      This looks alarming. Please let us know you thoughts no the same.

      Delete
    2. Debt is related to production capacity expansion. There was delay in environmental clearance for unit #5 now the issue is settled and it is going to start commercial production in coming quarter which will boost the current operational production capacity from 5,350 metric tonnes to 10,750 metric tonnes.

      Bigger business need higher working capital so no chance to go back at 2011 level.

      Delete
    3. It is very easy to understand from above mentioned investment rationale that in the past 6 years OSCL has acquired 4 companies, increased its manufacturing capacity 10 x fold, product portfolio increased from 80 to 200 +, patent filing for 18 product and 3 approval, same time company has paid good dividend every years since listing in 2011. Working capital cycle is on the high side because major raw materials like Iodine and Selenium are imported from Chile with transit time more than 2 months. Now demerger and listing of Lasa Lab is in process. All these activities are need significant capex and sufficient working capital to day-to-day business operations. Company has not gone for any enhancement in working capital or equity dilution.

      In this case if promoters has pledged or sold some portion of their shareholding to meet the business requirement than nothing wrong with it. In fact company has created huge asset and intellectual property in past 6 years. In future they have option to buyback or issue preferential shares against loan of 27.2 Cr to the company. Pledge shares will released before end of December 2016 as per guidelines given by management.

      Delete
  13. AMO placed at 155.Hope to get it on Monday

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thanks Madamji for yet another good pick. It also provides us a good learning experience and some insight in to your thought process while selecting stocks.Thank you once again for eveything that you are doing for the common public.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Thanks for the advise. ...if I have to choose between OSCL and sri phuskar chemicals. .which is the better company for long term investment. ..thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are very good companies in their business segment. Buying price is important and at cmp Omkar is better option because you will also get shares of Lasa Lab (200+ crore turnover pharmaceutical company).

      Delete
  16. Thank you dolly mam for this great share again..
    But mam
    1. Donear ind.
    2. JK AGRI
    both have came down very sharply ...what is your view now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some correction in Donear is normal after 400% rise within year. I hope most of people booked profit near 75, they can re-enter again if it come near 20.

      JK Agri - All hybrid seed stocks unable to perform in last 2 years due to poor monsoon and price capping on cotton seeds. Further growth will depend upon climatic conditions, 2-3 good season can bring
      desired results. Enough patience required to get decent return from it.

      Fresh entry advisable in April -June near 400.

      Delete
  17. Ma'am as I see this is your new stock posted.. what target or say returns one should expect? And what should be time horizon?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can give around 100% return in one year and at least 300% in 3-4 years.

      Delete
  18. Hello Ma'am,

    Thank You for the new stock.

    I have some surplus cash, pls advice If i should avg ABFRL which is 7% below your recommended price or buy this new stock.

    I have 11% allocation to ABFRL @143.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can allocate 20% in ABFRL and 20% in Omkar. Generally people invest with long term vision but give up after 10 -15% correction or delay in gain for 1 -2 years.

      Due to this reason it is advisable to keep portfolio balanced with both type of stocks which can give good gain in short term as well as in long term.

      Delete
  19. Thank you for the pick. What will happen after demerger? Will we get alloted shares of Lasa also.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, you get the shares of Lasa lab and after year its sales turnover will be higher than OSCL

      Delete
  20. Thanks Dolly Mam for this new gem.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Dear Blog Owner. Thank you. Read the report above and also the investor calls and saw the reports. Excellent team in an excellent business in excellent times which it seems are still just at the beginning still for speciality chem part of the business especially. Plus a huge big moat is that they get first emails to develop for customers and then get to patent the developed product. The more I read on speciality chem the more it starts reading like pharma from 5-7 years ago. This company I think I can hold for 5-10 years (Of course, will review results every quarter and also take advise to clarify any questions from you that you so kindly take time to answer). Thank you so much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OSCL has created decent asset in the past 6 years and it has started giving reward to investors.

      Lasa Labs was acquired in 2012 for 6 crores with less than 11 crore annual turnover. Now it become big enough to list separately with installed production capacity 7000 metric tonnes year and turnover will be 200 + crores after starting commercial production of unit # 5 in coming quarter.

      Similarly Rishichem Research Ltd was acquired in May 2010 for 1.3 crore. Up till now it has intellectual property asset worth 100 crores by developing several new molecules and products.

      Delete
  22. is this stock good for short term?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can give around 100% return in one year and at least 300% in 3-4 years.

      Delete
  23. Hello Mam, This share is been in a range of 98-240 in all this 5-6 years post listing. With such a strong management and niche segment operation where even entry for competitors is tough, why has this share not shown a rally in all these years..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock has gone up from 26 to 240 with 1000 metric tonne installed production capacity in 2011.

      Now it is ready for next move with 10750 metric tonne installed production capacity. It is going to unlock decent value with demerger of Lasa Lab.


      Delete
  24. Thank you madam, I have been following the blog for a few months now, I think its great you are blogging. But so many stock recommendations are making it difficult. Some of the previous stocks have also fallen even below recommendation price, I think that is okay as market will fluctuate but will you recommend buying the previous stocks also if they fall below recommendation price?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Omkar and ABFRL are best available option to buy or add.

      JK Agri and Surana Solar are trading upto 6% below suggested price, both are good for long term investment only with allocation up to 10%.

      Others are well above suggested price.

      Delete
    2. Thank you madam, I am just trying to ask will it be better to invest in those or in new stock you have mentioned. ABFRL is also close to suggested price, Normally when you suggest a stock its very difficult to buy it in a week or so but sometimes the stock price gives another opportunity also. Thanks a lot

      Delete
  25. Omkar speciality chemicals is undoubtedly a gem but only thing bad was promoter selling the stake , but still if madam has recommended this thing can be overcome ....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pledge and sold to support company for expansion and working capital requirement. 27 crore of total debt on the company is given by promoter.

      You have to read the blog and given links to get all information before making investment decision.

      When someone doing big thing in his life, some time it need to take such decision to complete this goal.

      http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/entrepreneurship/how-iit-graduate-herlekar-created-omkar-speciality-chemicals-into-a-rs-100-crore-venture/articleshow/17993785.cms

      Delete
  26. Ma'am just for understanding.. you and your team (if any ) does so much of hard work in analysing n research.. my question is do you also invest in stocks you suggest? or it is only for your followers..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you think it is possible to write this blog without buying the stock? Definitely all stocks are bought

      Delete
  27. CAN ANY ONE SHARE MADAM EMAIL ID PLS?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Dear Mam,

    Market cap of omkar is too small..if on monday everyone jumps to buy then it will be locked in circuit or atleast 10% higher then current price..shall we wait for few more days as still us fed hike is also in near term & market is also currently looking weak till december end.

    I already have this share in my portfolio but very minimum quantity because i sold few months back when promoters sold there stake.
    I also heard full concall which was 2 days back & it seems that promoter holding can further decline to 50.5% or 51% as per Mr herlekar talks.
    Please advice..Is it advisable to buy 10% higher then current price or shall we wait for few more days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock has enough liqidity and it can be bought easily near suggested price ( + / - 10 to 15%)

      Pledge and sold to support company for expansion and working capital requirement. 27 crore of total debt on the company is given by promoter.

      You have to read the blog and given links to get all information before making investment decision.

      When someone doing big thing in his life, some time it need to take such decision to complete on going work.

      http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/entrepreneurship/how-iit-graduate-herlekar-created-omkar-speciality-chemicals-into-a-rs-100-crore-venture/articleshow/17993785.cms

      Delete
  29. ORCL and ABFRL trading at similar price. Which is a better opportunity to invest or can we go 50-50

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OSCL is good for short term as well as for long term with expected return around 100% in one year and around 300% in 3-4 years.

      No short term target for ABFRL but very good stock for long term investment.

      Delete
    2. Dear Madam
      Demonitization will affect the business of ABFRL in long run? May be everybody will more conservative in spending and chances to shift branded goods to some local brands. Please clear my dount.

      Delete
    3. It will have some effect on Q3 but higher sale during Deepavali has compensated it. Within next 10 -15 days all cash liquidity related issues will get settled.

      No effect on the income of common people but it is to neutralize the black money.

      Delete
  30. Madam, will it perform like Navin flouride and Thirumalai chemicals?

    ReplyDelete
  31. thanks mam for your new recommendation.

    ReplyDelete
  32. thank you ,madam :) feeling v happy to see this stock as a pick :)
    what price could Lasa list at?
    Warm Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Overall return on investment will be around 100% in one year and at least 300% in 3-4 years.

      Delete
  33. Mam,
    Donear daily on LC. Is it due to profit booking? At what level it will sustain

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some correction is normal after 400% rise within year. I hope most of people booked profit near 75, they can re-enter again if it come near 20.

      Delete
  34. Mam what is good price to add Emkay Global? and expected returns?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can be bought near 50 with expected return 50 -100% in 2-3 years.

      Delete
  35. Madam looking at demonitisation effect and GST on cards how u see coming quarters of OSCL. Further debt also increased 4 fold n contingent liability too of 100 crores. Pls throw some light on this too. Madam do we buy at one go or Sip. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Debt increased 4 fold, Sales revenue and profit also increased 4 fold, Production capacity increased 10 fold, intellectual asset also increased several fold in the past 6 years.

      Now it is ready for next move and it is going to unlock decent value with demerger of Lasa Lab.

      Delete
  36. How IIT graduate Herlekar created Omkar Speciality Chemicals into a Rs 100 crore venture
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/entrepreneurship/how-iit-graduate-herlekar-created-omkar-speciality-chemicals-into-a-rs-100-crore-venture/articleshow/17993785.cms

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Pravin Herlekar is first generation entrepreneur, he has started the company in his kitchen with 10,000 rupees and turned into 500 crore turnover company.

      Inspiring story for new investors

      Delete
  37. Hi Mam, What is the right price to buy IFB Agro. What percent of the return we can expect in 3-4 years from current price 380.
    Your valuable views please regarding Cosboard Industries.

    Thanks Mam.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IFB is good stock to buy near 300, it can give consistent return around 15% per year

      Not tracking Cosboard Industries

      Delete
  38. dear Mam,
    Thank you for your hard work and posting the info...
    Is there any remote possibility that, management fudging accounts???
    It is very difficult to prove at this stage...
    They said in Q1 con call that they are not going to sell their holdings, but they did sell some portion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have seen many people sold land to arrange money for their daughter marriage , several sold their wife ornament to buy house and several sold their property and other asset to save their business.

      Are they did fraud with their families by taking above decision?
      Assessing the depth of water from river bank will never give right reflection.

      It is always better to take decision to sacrifice small things to win the situation instead of losing both.

      The person who can build 500 crore company with 10k rupees has enough brain to increase the holding easily.

      UPL and Tata Chem are two top companies in chemical sector with 30% promoter holding. How and why they have sold their holding?

      Delete
  39. Thank you mam for all the support ur giving time, knowledge, news , everything thanks a lot ... may God be with all of us ...

    ReplyDelete
  40. Mam may I please send you my portfolio for review...

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hi Madam, Thanks for the great insight - could you please tell what would be the impact of demerger to OSCL? Also, NOCIL has shown stellar performance last quarter, do you think we should accumulate after this correction - do you think Tyre chemical industry has a long way to go? thanks a lot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Around 35% of sales revenue and 80 crore debt will go out from OSCL. Lasa will able to double its sales revenue and profit after start of unit # 5.

      Nocil is good stock to add near 40

      Delete
  42. Namashkar madam...please tell how do you see markets on march 2018... In my opinion markets will be at a new high as demonetisation negative effect will be over by march 17 and only it's positive effect will remain and also the gst will also have been implemented by then... Wat is your opinion please tell... I am asking for investing in good stocks( available at cheap prices now) by keeping a time frame upto march 18

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, some sector like real estate, housing construction and finance will slow down for short to mid term but in other sectors we can see normal growth. Overall demonetisation is big positive for Indian economy and long term investors.

      Delete
  43. Thank you madam for all of your selfless support to new and small investors like me.

    After lot of pondering decided to overcome the lure of short term gain in Omkar and continue investing in ABFRL for long term gain till it is within your prescribed buying price.

    I was overwhelmed by your your detailed analysis and also by your extreme confidence on ABFRL business. Started accumulating in an extremely focused way since I read your blog . Within next 2 months I will be able to accumulate 10000 units in my portfolio. Avg price will be 145/--- will constitute 50% of my portfolio.

    Hope I am not taking too much risk considering long term ( 5-10 yrs) horizon ?

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can allocate 20% in ABFRL and 20% in Omkar. Generally people invest with long term vision but give up after 10 -15% correction or delay in gain for 1 -2 years.

      Due to this reason it is advisable to keep portfolio balanced with both type of stocks which can give good gain in short term as well as in long term.

      Delete
  44. Thanks a lot mam for that great gem.
    Mam please share your opinion on jk Agri and donear after that drastic fall in both the stocks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some correction in Donear is normal after 400% rise within year. I hope most of people booked profit near 75, they can re-enter again if it come near 20.

      JK Agri - All hybrid seed stocks unable to perform in last 2 years due to poor monsoon and price capping on cotton seeds. Further growth will depend upon climatic conditions, 2-3 good season can bring
      desired results. Enough patience required to get decent return from it.

      Fresh entry advisable in April -June near 400.

      Delete
  45. Hi mam,what is your opinion on capital first, can we buy post correction for long term

    ReplyDelete
  46. Madam,
    Thank you for all your work in this, I have been following the blog for a couple of months and I am happy to learn all this. Thanks for everything. So many stocks have been confusing me. Some of the previous stocks have fallen with the market and some of them are also below the recommended price, Will you advice adding them or buying onkar

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Omkar and ABFRL are best available option to buy or add.

      JK Agri and Surana Solar are trading upto 6% below suggested price, both are good for long term investment only with allocation up to 10%.

      Others are well above suggested price.

      Delete
  47. Dear Ma'am thank you so much..words are short for this gratitude..
    I have bought ABFRL buying price is bit Higher @ 154.. also will buy Omkar.. will try to buy at reco price..but sometimes it is difficult to get @ same price..

    Which stocks will you suggest after abfrl n omkar (both got 20% allocation) me to buy... please advise

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. + / - 10 % from suggested price is OK and 154 is good price.

      You can allocate 20% in ABFRL and 20% in Omkar. Generally people invest with long term vision but give up after 10 -15% correction or delay in gain for 1 -2 years.

      Due to this reason it is advisable to keep portfolio balanced with both type of stocks which can give good gain in short term as well as in long term.

      Delete
  48. Maam What is your view on ADF foods?

    ReplyDelete
  49. Thanks for the valuable inputs Ma'am. I would also request your inputs on Canfin homes, whether to hold or sell the position at current level. thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  50. Hello mam
    Can you please reply to my PF advice request email.
    Thanks
    Srini

    ReplyDelete
  51. Thanks madam, i purchased all stocks as you advise , i have pushkar chemicals ,insecticide . i hold or sale . i have a big portfolio , can you revise my portfolio, this will great obligation on me

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can continue to hold Pushkar chemicals and Insecticide for further gain.

      You can mail your portfolio on excel file

      Delete
  52. Hi Mam,
    Thanks for an another jem in our protfolio.

    Regarding Donear, i thought you asked to book profit at 75 for those who have allocated more than 20% in their protfolio.My allocation is around 10% and i havent sold that off. Is it worth to wait to see Donear at 75 levels again and sell it.

    Can you please advise?

    Thanks,
    Viswa

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If any stock has given 300 - 400% gain within year than it is very easy to take decision for some profit booking.

      It feeling scared about these conditions the better to book profit near 100% and keep free of cost shares

      Delete
  53. Mam, I don't sell donear at 75 and now price is decreasing heavily. I bought 1000 donear at cmp 22. As my allocation is 5% I don't sell. Should I hold for long term or sell in this bleeding market?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some correction in Donear is normal after 400% rise within year.

      It feeling scared about market fall then better to always book profit near 100% and keep free of cost shares

      Delete
  54. Hello mam !

    Do you track Majesco? What's your view on it for 2 to 3 years?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Thank you Maam for your insight and recommendation of new stock. Appreciate you taking time out to reply which is indeed so nice of you to do. Don't you track Sugar stocks and if not, could you please give me some rationale behind your decision? Thanks! Sahil

    ReplyDelete
  56. Hello Ma'am, Can you give any insight in Vikas Ecotech ltd? Is it a fundamentally strong company for long term investment? Thanks! Sahil

    ReplyDelete
  57. Abfrl still coming down madam , can be added at these levels ? Pls guide

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy at any price below 140 for long term investment.

      Delete
  58. Hello Dolly - Thanks for the detailed analysis. I have one question for you - where does the PE ratio of this company stand in comparison to its peers? Should PE ratio be considered at all while picking stocks?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stocks suggestion based on future growth of the company and product demand.

      Delete
  59. Hello mam,
    I have bought Shares of ABFRL,Jubilant Ind.& Xpro want to buy more.
    Can you suggest me some other stock from your earlier recommendation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jubilant and Xpro still 50% above suggested price. Omkar and ABFRL are better option.

      Delete
  60. Mam, Need your valuable insights on demonetization.I understand due to currency crunch people are selling.When can we expect a rebound in markets as this can impact the results of Q3&Q4 Request you to kindly recommend few stocks which are corrected heavily which can be added for good short term gain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Market will start recovering within month

      Omkar and ABFRL are better option.

      Delete
  61. mam..next stock you will be posted in Dec or Jan?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Next stock will be posted after 2 months, in mid of Jan

      Delete
  62. Mam, what is your view on this falling market? Its keep falling, I have positions in 20 stocks, all turned into red in these 7-8 days except Shree Pushkar, TCI (including XPS) and Union Bank. Should I HOLD or EXIT few?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most of the stocks will recover quickly once market will change the trend.

      Delete
  63. Dear Mam,
    It is looking horrible now. Is it because any fundamental change in Economy? As India was counted on the base of consumption. And consumption getting hit by this demonetization. So market is adjusting it? I am quite disturbed this time. If you guide us about how to cope up with the situation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is normal in stock market. Once or twice in year market will find some internal or external reason for good correction. Shares will slip from weak hands and move to strong hand, this normal cycle of making loss and profit.

      Delete
  64. Mam, Pls share your insights on demonetization.We all understand that is good for the nation in longrun. But i understand thatdue to temporary cash crunch situationsand fear people are selling.In the current scenario kindly suggest few stocks which are not part of blog which can be added for decent gain in short term.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy any good stock Cosmo Film, Srikalahasthi Pipes, NOCIL for 20 % gain within one year.

      Delete
  65. Thanks Mam for UR new Superb Omkar recommendation. Got @158 price 10% little higher from UR recommended price.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Hi Mam,

    Can we buy Shree Pushkar after todays fall.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can add in small quantities for long term investment.

      Delete
  67. ABFRL, Shree pushkar, omkar , surana , valuations wise looking great at the moment can one investment more into these stocks @ available prices and on dips with a 2 year view for more than 100 percent returns

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, you can buy Shree pushkar, omkar for 2 years

      Delete
  68. Hi Madam, i am holding Aarti Drugs and need your views for it. This company has its footprint in API, Speciality chemicals and Pharma intermediates.
    At current price, do we have margin of safety to buy it for next 3 years point of view?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it is good stock to add during market correction for consistent gain around 20% per year

      Delete
  69. Hello Mam.. Just wanted to know one thing.. Oscl is listed 6 years back with the strong management and also it has increased the turnover of subsidiaries after acquisitions with so many innovations over the years.. With all this in place over the years why has its share price is still at 150 after listing at 98 over 6 years back.. What factors has kept it sideways in the market over the years.. Isn't it a concern mam..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have not checked the price properly. It was trading below 30 in march 2011 and gone up to 250 in January 2016

      Delete
    2. Further detailed update given in recent con call

      http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/5C9668CB_6733_4F16_A51A_2B208580EDC8_172204.pdf

      Delete
  70. Madam why donear is coming from 80 to LC because of quarterly results or general market correction, at what price it will stabilise for LT.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most of the investors booking profit after getting 300% gains within year (who bought it below 20)

      Delete
  71. ANY VIEWS ON SYBLY INDUSTRIES I AM HOLDING 1300 SHARES @ 9.71

    ReplyDelete
  72. Madam please through some light regarding listing date of TCI XPS.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stil no update

      No role of company in new listing but it will be done by Sebi and stock exchanges will list it after getting the approval

      Delete
  73. HELLO MADAM
    I AM NEW TO YOUR BLOG, I AM HAVING LOT OF SHARES IN MY PORTFOLIO CAN YOU GUIDE ME REGARDING WHAT TO KEEP OR TO SELL

    AWAITING YOUR REPLY
    THANKING YOU

    ReplyDelete
  74. hi madam,,,first of all, thanks for ur valuable suggestion, i m already having it in my portfolio with the same reason u mentioned,, n i request u to please take a look at another company of same potential...CLARIS Lifescience ltd..this company could also gv 300% return over 2-3 years.. so would u plz take a look of the bussiness of this company n ur views on it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking Claris but promoter are same of Core Healthcare so take your investment decision carefully.

      Delete
  75. Hi Madam ,Can you please tell me about Vikas Ecotech,i would like to buy for long term.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Dont you see Promoter holding as a concerned. In the last concall they categorically mentioned that there will no further selling in stake and it will remain as 58 % . But then they again sold stake. How do you see this?
    Moreover Dont you think that their aggressive expansion plans are constantly putting pressure on their working capital requirements?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have already replied to several comments and in the blog.

      You can read recent con call for detailed answer.

      http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/5C9668CB_6733_4F16_A51A_2B208580EDC8_172204.pdf

      Delete
  77. Madam

    There has not been much traction in DTIL over
    last two years. It goes up to a level of 330-340
    and during correction it comes down to a level of 250-260. The pattern has been quite consistent.

    My questions:
    1) Given your original projection of 3-4 years for a gain of 300-400%, maximum upto 2 years is left. Do you expect the story to turn around in coming 1-2 years drastically to meet your original timeline projection and gain expectation?
    The status quo has hardly changed since last two years.

    2) If so, will be grateful, if you can explain how that would happen at a very macro level.


    3) Do you expect the promoters to split shares in next 1-2 years in order to change the status of this highly illiquid stock.
    It's quite difficult to offload this share at such low level of traction, specilly during correction (if somone wishes so).

    Thanks for your continuous guidance.

    Warm Regards..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agri and plantation business growth depend on climatic conditions. We can not expect very high return in continuous draught condition as happened in Malawi from last 2 years. Company is working to expand the plantation and retail business.

      Growth of Indian retail and Malawi business are main factor to achieve the target easily and only 2 -3 good season are sufficient. Stock split or bonus will happen at higher price near four digit.

      Delete
  78. Mam,
    Can we enter chem fab Lab after this steep correction.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is good stock to buy near 100 ( + / - 10% from suggested price)

      Delete
  79. Ma'am what will be the impact on chemical companies if the oil prices rises substaintially. Since the oil is major cost constituent? Would they be able to pass on the cost to customers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will not make much difference until crude oil will maintain price above 80$/b than cost will passed to customer.

      Delete
  80. Hello madam,

    Is it a right time to buy textile stocks. I want to buy nandan denim, nitin spinners so which one you suggezt to buy?

    I also like lloyd electric so can I buy at current price?

    Thanking You so much.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can start adding textile stock in small quantities on every correction.

      lloyd electric can be bought near 200

      Delete
  81. Hi Mam: How do you see Promoters of Omkar Speciality? Promoters holding is agan very good at 63%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. % Share holding of Promoters is not the criteria to measure the quality of management. Otherwise top two chemical companies like UPL and Tata Chem will come into worst managed companies with 30% promoter holding.

      Delete
  82. How does Cosmo Films seem to you Ma'am at CMP for 3-5 years ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is good stock for investment with expected gain around 20% per year

      Delete
  83. Dear Dolly, Thanks for all the information ,I am currently Holding ABFRL 4000 @ 197, With quarterly results to be declared on 24 Nov, Should I add more or Kindly suggest...With the current uncertainty going on in the market.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can allocate 20% of your portfolio for long term investment at least for 3-4 years without looking quarterly result. You have shown good patience to hold even buying at very high price 197.

      Delete
  84. mam, whats ur view on KKalpana industries and DHP India?
    Thanx in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Hi mam, I need ur view on infra stocks. And why mbl infra quoting at 3.5 pe. Has some debt but any corporate governance issue? Thanks mam.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking MBL Infra. Still not very positive on infra sector.

      Delete
  86. Thanks a lot mam for your guidance to pick stocks.
    Please let us know your views on Caplin point labs and Balaji Amines if you are following any of them?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are good stock but not advisable to buy at such high price.

      Delete
  87. mam,can you please tell me about visagar polytex .how it can perform in next 2years .Thanks for new pick mam.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Hi Dolly Ma'am!
    Looking to invest in this stock.. wanted to understand what are the risks associated. Regulatory, suppy side, customer's side..etc.. how do u evaluate the overall risk..

    ReplyDelete
  89. Do you track oriental carbon and chemicals? Is it better bet than pushkar chemicals

    ReplyDelete
  90. Respected madam... Everyone is talking about abfrls falling below the recommended price and consider buying it... Same is the case with tci... But no one is talking about tci... Is there any change in view about tci or it is as good as it was earlier to keep in portfolio... I am asking because I want to buy more of tci in this fall...thanks in advance madam

    ReplyDelete
  91. Madam I am in your follower list but not got your recommendation in time ,Anyhow at CMP 155 is it still a buy call . If not at level i can enter as learned from your only that entry point has to be assessed for successfull investment.
    kudous for your perseverance and hope i will get benefitted in future from your prudent guidance .Great going madam

    ReplyDelete
  92. Dear Blog owner, What is your view on Havells India. It's down ~30% from 52 WK Hi. Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  93. mam,i have bought visagar polytex at 2.75 ,shreenuj at 2.25 ,graphite india at 79 .mam please suggest me whether i sell or hold or buy more at cmp in this falling market.Is any stock is good for long term among these stocks madam.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Hello Ma'am,
    I really appreciate the guidance and knowledge you are providing to everyone. Thanks a ton.
    My query is regarding Talbros Auto. Should I gain exposure to it at CMP. Also is there any other auto stock which can be bought at CMP. How do you compare Talbros with Pricol and Banco Products.
    Looking forward to your valuable thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Hi Dolly Ma'am!
    Looking to invest in this stock..what is the reason for its down trend in last 1 yr.. wanted to understand what are the risks associated. Regulatory, suppy side, customer's side..etc.. how do u evaluate the overall risk..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HI if you would have spent some time reading his blog you may not ask this question. please read the blog again you will get the answer for all your question we have answer in the blog.NO PAIN NO GAIN.Hope you understand

      Delete
  96. I have samkrgpiston@225 .It is better to buy omkar speciality and to sell samkrgpiston.Thanks for valuable guidance

    ReplyDelete
  97. Madam what is your view on JHS Svengard and Cox & Kings?

    ReplyDelete
  98. Dear Mam...Thanks a lot for replying to each query so patiently and making the effort to bring such gems to our notice...

    Request you to kindly give your views on Force Motors...

    ReplyDelete
  99. Hi Mam,
    Thank you very much for the in-depth info and wonderful analysis. I was able to buy 2k shares @158. Planning to buy some more.

    When you say 20% allocation for a stock, do you refer to hold value or Market value of the total holdings?

    ReplyDelete
  100. Hi Dolly ma'am
    What are your views on Ifb agro in the current circumstances? Do you expect huge impact on the liquor and seafood businesses?

    ReplyDelete
  101. Dear Ma'm
    what is the reason for not publishing my comments?
    Do you publish only positive and neutral comments? but not negative comments about the company?
    Thanks in advance...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your comment is already posted yesterday and replied November 21, 2016 at 12:01 AM

      Delete
    2. It would be nice if you have patience and go through the comments before jumping ahead and posting. It would really help others.

      I hope you would have taken the message in a positive spirit.

      -Viswa

      Delete