Monday, June 27, 2016

Update on Brexit, TCI-XPS and Next Stock



Brexit



Britain has chosen to leave the European Union on Friday and it was an unexpected result for stock markets around the world. Most of the analysis went wrong because majority of 50+ age group people were in favour of exit. Media has added fuel to fire to increase the volatility in markets. 


Brexit does not means that UK is going to close all businesses or it can not run without EU. Initial impact seems severe for UK economy because some emotional attachment also get detached with exit from EU but it will become normal, even stronger than before in few years. 


In context to Indian economy it has very minor impact because it is based on domestic consumption. Indian market recovered 400 points quickly after fall of more than 1000 points on sensex. Market is likely to stabilize within next 2-3 days. Only stocks with direct exposure in UK may correct further. Tata group operates several companies in UK and it is having highest exposure. Some other major companies from IT and pharma sector are having subsidiaries companies in UK. There may be some short-term effects due to currency rate fluctuation.


Indian economy and stock market will continue its uptrend in the wake of good monsoon season which will ensure rural and industrial growth. Government has approved special package and incentives for textiles sector and  policy will be announced in coming weeks. GOI has full expectation to get the clearance of GST bill in the coming session of the Parliament starting in July.


Any further correction should be taken as good opportunity to add stocks at lower level.


TCI XPS Demerger



TCI management has wisely hold the announcement on record date due to recent event of Brexit. Court order already updated on HC website.

http://164.100.12.10/hcorders/orders/2016/cp/cp_119_2016.pdf

Demerger date will be announced very shortly once market will get stabilized.




In the  series of 'Best Stock Picks' next stock will be posted before  06.07.2016. 







Saturday, June 4, 2016

Alkali Metals Limited


Alkali Metals Limited  CMP - 47






Company Profile



Alkali Metals Limited was set up in 1968 for manufacturing of Sodium   Metal, the company subsequently diversified into manufacturing of Sodium derivatives, Amino pyridine derivatives, Picoline, Potassium derivatives,  Fine Chemicals, Speciality Chemicals, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and other Cyclic compounds. These products find wide application and use in various industries like the pharma, agro based products, pesticides, explosives, bio technology products, electroplating chemicals, nuclear plants etc.  Its products are sold primarily to pharmaceutical and chemical companies for further processing and conversion into bulk drugs or any other form of end use.






Alkali Metals Limited has entered in the capital market with an initial public offering ( IPO) of price range Rs. 86 -103 for 2.55 million equity shares in 2008 with intention to enter the active pharmaceutical ingredient segment by setting up of an Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) plant at Jawaharlal Nehru Pharma City Visakhapatnam. Company caught on wrong foot due to severe recession from 2008 to 2011 years. Most of the pharma and chemical companies are performing exceptionally well from last three years but due to delayed regulatory approvals Alkali Metal enable to start the production of Metformin (API) only from last year (2015) . Company has shown turnaround performance in FY 15 -16 results after posting poor results for several years. All ratios and parameters started improving quickly like debt reduction, sales growth, improved operating and net margins. Company has declared 8% interim and 4% final dividend for FY 15 -16.






The company has three manufacturing units, at Uppal, Dommara Pochampally and JNPC Visakhapatnam.  Last year company has completed metformin API manufacturing facility for APIs at Jawaharlal Nehru Pharma City, Vizag. Company has already completed the implementation of the expansion plan of its second unit. Manufacturing facilities are ISO 14001 and ISO 9001 certified.


Products and Application



The major strength of the company is its ability to handle hazardous chemicals like alkali metals, alkali metal amides, alkoxides and organometallic products, sodium hydride, amino pyridines, pyridine derivatives and tetrazoles. Sodium metal, which is the key raw material for sodium derivatives and is a highly explosive material. The company is one of the few manufacturers who use the sodium metal route to manufacture sodium azide, which provides higher purity levels as compared to the alternative manufacturing process that uses hydrogen hydride. AML facilities are well equipped to carrying-out specialized reactions like nitration, diazotization, chlorination, bromination, n-oxidation, reduction, chichibabin, organometallics, cyclisation.






Research & Development Centre



The Company has converted unit-1 into R&D facility and it is approved as an "In house R & D Facility" by the Ministry of Science & Technology, Government of India. The company has spent  4.9 million towards Research and Development during the previous financial year and is putting continuous efforts in R&D to increase the cost efficiency through optimum material consumptions by improving the processes. Company has developed more than 300 products in the categories include amides, hydrides, alkoxides, azides, tetrazoles, pyridine compounds, cyclic compounds, drug and pharma intermediates, specialty and fine chemicals etc. It manufactures products on bulk and regular basis, campaign basis and on contract manufacturing basis for international customers. The technology for these products was developed in–house which is an achievement considering hazardous process chemistry involved in the development and manufacture of the same.



Future Growth Drivers  



Metformin (API) facility began its operation last year and the capacity utilization is lower in the initial operation stabilising phase. However the capacity utilisation is expected to improve with stabilisation of operations and also with the receipt of international regulatory approvals from US FDA, WHO & EU in the medium term. Company has marketing arrangement with Thinq Pharma for metformin. Metformin is primarily used for type 2 diabetes, it is an orally administered biguanide derivative used to lower blood glucose concentrations in patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus by improving insulin sensitivity.

Fine chemicals sales gradually increasing from last two years. The company has commercialized 3 new products which have good potential in the coming years. AML is sole supplier of  Pyridine Aldoxime Methochloride (PPAM) to Archimica S.R.L. Italy. This product finds application in anti-histamine, anti poisoning, blood pressure control drugs. The raw materials for PPAM are sodium hydride and chloropyridines, which are manufactured captively. 


Well Established Customer Base 



AML caters to the product requirements of both the domestic and overseas markets. Its major domestic customers are Rallis India, Granules India, Porus Drugs & Intermediates, Dr. Reddy’s Lab, Punjab Chemicals, TEVA API India, and Allied Chemicals. International clients: Allwin Asia Limited, Nihon Siberhegner K.K, Novasep Syntheasis, Euticals S.P.A, Teva Pantex Chemicals Limited. Its major export customers include Chemsource SA (Switzerland), and DKSH Japan KK. Company able to get repeated orders due to superior quality of the products. 


Conclusion



Future demand for specialty and fine chemicals is expected to grow at good pace. 

AML is well known brand name in sodium derivatives, well established infrastructure, in -house R&D capabilities and reputed customer base. Sales growth from Metformin (API) and fine chemical segment is expected to increase in coming quarters. Commercialization of new value added products will further increase its top and bottom line. With all these capabilities company is well set to make major turnaround.

Stock is providing very good investment opportunity for long term investment.





Thursday, June 2, 2016

Update on FY 15 -16 Results & Next Stock


Dear Readers, 


We have received the FY 15 -16 results for all stocks suggested in this blog. Most of the companies have posted good results as compared to peers and sector average. There is no change in fundamentals of any company and all are moving forward in line with our expectation. 




Pondy Oxides 


Company has posted very good results with significant improvement in top and bottom line. There is lot of scope of further improvement with better utilization installed capacity of new plant. Need to hold strictly for decent return in future.


Waterbase 


Company has given results below expectation initially due poor monsoon and later heavy rain, floods and disease breakout. It has interrupted production for more than two months. It has given the opportunity to re- enter in the range of 60 -70. Company has posted detailed update along with results. It is well set to perform better in coming quarters.

http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=2eae21c4-aa93-4c60-957a-aa41a50675c7


Donear Industries


Results are just below expectation, profit before tax is 73% higher than previous year but higher tax for FY 15-16 has brought net profit down. Textile sector continue to perform better in future due to increase in brand awareness and disposable income of middle class population. It will further increase with implementation of 7th pay commission. Company is expanding the retail chain with specific focus on sub-urban area and towns. It is decent stock to hold for long term.


Technocraft 


Results were better than expected. There is no growth in topline but due to drum closure segment company able to post 20% growth in bottom line. Other segments have also shown some sign of recovery, hopefully some can make turnaround in coming quarters. Company has not declared final dividend due this reason stock corrected after recent rally. 


TCI


Company has posted very good results with 12% growth in bottom line. Demerger of XPS is near to completion. Company has started the operation in Bangladesh and cold chain warehouse in Gurgaon, these steps to compensate the revenue and profit loss due to demerger of XPS. Central government is very hopeful of passing GST bill in upper house of parliament within this year. TCI will be major beneficiary of GST rollout. 



Insecticide, JK Agri, Chemfab Alkalis, Kothari petro have posted muted results due poor climatic (poor monsoon and floods) conditions. Hopefully these companies will perform better in coming quarters due to forecast of good monsoon and industrial growth. We will continue to hold Chemfab Alkalis after management has approved the scheme of amalgamation and arrangement of the Company with Teamec Chlorates Limited 


http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/DC77B4A9_9455_4FDB_9B85_9F545A4C3C3C_181421.pdf



Xpro is the only company which is showing continuous losses but its business has given sign of recovery in Q4, hopefully it will show positive results in coming quarters. Surprisingly stock is sustaining price level above 40 even after continuous posting very negative results from several quarters. 



Domestic business of DTIL has shown decent growth in top and bottom line. Subsidiary companies have posted muted results due to drought in Malawi. Hopefully within year its FMCG business start contributing significant revenue.



Talbros Auto, Kamdhenu and Surana Solar  have posted weak numbers but these sectors are  well set to make good turnaround in FY 16 -17. These companies are very good for long term investment.


In the  series of 'Best Stock Picks' next stock will be posted before  06.06.2016.