Thursday, June 2, 2016

Update on FY 15 -16 Results & Next Stock


Dear Readers, 


We have received the FY 15 -16 results for all stocks suggested in this blog. Most of the companies have posted good results as compared to peers and sector average. There is no change in fundamentals of any company and all are moving forward in line with our expectation. 




Pondy Oxides 


Company has posted very good results with significant improvement in top and bottom line. There is lot of scope of further improvement with better utilization installed capacity of new plant. Need to hold strictly for decent return in future.


Waterbase 


Company has given results below expectation initially due poor monsoon and later heavy rain, floods and disease breakout. It has interrupted production for more than two months. It has given the opportunity to re- enter in the range of 60 -70. Company has posted detailed update along with results. It is well set to perform better in coming quarters.

http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=2eae21c4-aa93-4c60-957a-aa41a50675c7


Donear Industries


Results are just below expectation, profit before tax is 73% higher than previous year but higher tax for FY 15-16 has brought net profit down. Textile sector continue to perform better in future due to increase in brand awareness and disposable income of middle class population. It will further increase with implementation of 7th pay commission. Company is expanding the retail chain with specific focus on sub-urban area and towns. It is decent stock to hold for long term.


Technocraft 


Results were better than expected. There is no growth in topline but due to drum closure segment company able to post 20% growth in bottom line. Other segments have also shown some sign of recovery, hopefully some can make turnaround in coming quarters. Company has not declared final dividend due this reason stock corrected after recent rally. 


TCI


Company has posted very good results with 12% growth in bottom line. Demerger of XPS is near to completion. Company has started the operation in Bangladesh and cold chain warehouse in Gurgaon, these steps to compensate the revenue and profit loss due to demerger of XPS. Central government is very hopeful of passing GST bill in upper house of parliament within this year. TCI will be major beneficiary of GST rollout. 



Insecticide, JK Agri, Chemfab Alkalis, Kothari petro have posted muted results due poor climatic (poor monsoon and floods) conditions. Hopefully these companies will perform better in coming quarters due to forecast of good monsoon and industrial growth. We will continue to hold Chemfab Alkalis after management has approved the scheme of amalgamation and arrangement of the Company with Teamec Chlorates Limited 


http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/DC77B4A9_9455_4FDB_9B85_9F545A4C3C3C_181421.pdf



Xpro is the only company which is showing continuous losses but its business has given sign of recovery in Q4, hopefully it will show positive results in coming quarters. Surprisingly stock is sustaining price level above 40 even after continuous posting very negative results from several quarters. 



Domestic business of DTIL has shown decent growth in top and bottom line. Subsidiary companies have posted muted results due to drought in Malawi. Hopefully within year its FMCG business start contributing significant revenue.



Talbros Auto, Kamdhenu and Surana Solar  have posted weak numbers but these sectors are  well set to make good turnaround in FY 16 -17. These companies are very good for long term investment.


In the  series of 'Best Stock Picks' next stock will be posted before  06.06.2016. 







112 comments:

  1. Thanks for detailed analysis. I started buying from June 2015 from your blog, I have invested 6L on various stages on 6 stocks from the above list. I am sitting on 25% profit. You are doing great work for common investors. In any correction, I will buy more this year.

    Thanks
    Siva

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you ma'am for guiding through.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thank you Madam for giving analysis on results and guiding us.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thank you Madam. As number of stocks are growing you can suggest us to switch between stocks in case if you find value among switch.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Better to stick with invested stocks because sooner or later all will move up.

      Delete
  5. Thank u soo much dolly ma'am....

    ReplyDelete
  6. Mam your Valuable comments on Escorts?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks Mam for Guidance.Regards

    ReplyDelete
  8. Mam can I buy ramco system for long term...

    ReplyDelete
  9. Madam jbf industries is it gd stock for long term? Is it valuebuy at cmp .please reply ur views

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is good stock for long term investment but better to add around 160 -170 during market correction.

      Delete
  10. Mam,
    Your views on Shilpa Medicare.I am holding from 472 level(splitting price).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking Shilpa. Pharma sector will continue to perform good in future, better to hold pharma stocks if bought at lower level.

      Delete
  11. Regarding TCI - Bangladesh - It is one of the most crowded countries & hence many organizations are looking at Bangladesh for future growth (including my previous organization which planned to establish subsidiary in Bangladesh). Based on feedback from sales people of my previous org who visited Bangladesh - "It is like India 15 years back". I guess TCI will gain early mover advantage as an organized player.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, TCI has edge over other peers due to very strong network and infrastructure across the country. It is easy for TCI to expand business in neighbour countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka.

      Delete
  12. what is the correction level u r expecting for TIIL n Surana? or current price is also good?
    pls suggest n thank u for updates, its very helpful

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not expecting any major correction in above stocks. You can start adding in small quantities by placing orders near to day low price.

      Delete
  13. MAdam,

    As per Kamdhenu balance sheet long term borrowings are 72.54 lak ( FY 2016) & 1.8 Cr ( FY 2015)
    But some website info kamdhenu debit is it is 112 cr.

    Actually what is the debit of kamdhenu ? from the latest balance shhet submitted ? Please your views will help us

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Generally short term borrowings are used to meet the operational expenses from credit facility given by banks and payable within 12 months.


      Long term debt - 72 L
      Short term debt -105 Cr

      Delete
  14. Hello mam,
    First of all salute to ur dedication towards small investors...!!
    Despite consistent good results of POCL in a gloomy business environment specifically auto industry why the company trading at so cheap multiples also is nile ltd have similar business model to POCL and strictly compareable...??
    Mam I am sorry but i couldn't find ur name in the list of shareholders where shareholders even with minimum 4k share were enlisted.It's ur earliest recommendation n we have witnessed ur bullishness about the company.Many of us develop our own conviction taking lead from ur recommendation bt there might be ppl who invest just because dolly mam has invested.So in the interest of fellow blogreaders it would be great if u can plz clarify this issue.
    Thank u.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Company has posted first year end results after demerger of POEL. There is significant improvement in top and bottom line. It is not necessary that every stock will go up just after posting the good results but POCL will get its real valuation sooner or later. Stock did not reacted immediately on good results because dividend % paid similar to last year. Stock will move on its business strength not by name of Investors. Investment also can be done on the portfolio of family members.

      Delete
  15. Hello Mam, I am new to your blog. I would like to invest 6 lakhs in stocks recommended by you. Would greatly appreciate your help to select the stocks. Thank you.
    Riya

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Take your time and read all the blog including Q&A from Jan 2015 Blog. You will learn lot. Every time you read the blog, you will learn new things and it will help you long term. Even if you read previous blog you will get answer to your question. I am also planning to invest 6L this year,but i will wait for some correction before i buy.

      Siva

      Delete
    2. Siva, I read in the blog that you want to know in which stocks Dolly Mam will invest 1%. That is so unfair and disrespectful, and giving Mam a choice to answer or not does not make it less offensive. You have been reading all the blogs and learnt so much from Mam, was it not enough? why did you want to know all Mam's future 1% stocks?
      Riya

      Delete
    3. Riya,

      Your question is asked by many peoples that's what i mentioned. For me this blog is school, where i will learn and want to use this knowledge and skill for my next 20 years. looks you don't want to hear our experience.

      If you think my question is offensive to mam, i apologize to mam.
      Thanks
      Siva

      Delete
    4. I think its ok now, thanks.

      Delete
  16. mam like to add NDL.cant see ur view on it either in reccomended stocks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can add Nandan Denim during market correction. It is good stock for long term investment.

      Delete
  17. mam ur view on vishnu chemical

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good stock for investment if bought at lower level during market correction.

      Delete
  18. Mam, your views on K M Sugar Mills. I am holding the 5000 @2.00

    ReplyDelete
  19. Thanks mam for the result update.

    ReplyDelete
  20. MAM,

    Thanks for your update. Some stocks which you have recommended as HOld is not below my buying price (Kothari Petro). Can I add more share or I need to wait for your next stock.

    What is your view on HSIL and Butterfly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can add Kothari or next stock, both are decent for long term investment.

      Delete
  21. Madam your views on hcl infosystems.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks a ton for your valuable guidance. I am sure that many of us here, are slowly learning from you.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Thank you madam for the results.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hello mam any guidance on nilkamal ??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. blue chip stock,,will trade above 2000+ with in 1-2yrs

      Delete
  25. Hi Madam,I have a very basic question..how do u come across the companies that u research and invest into ?thank you for your patience in answering our questions.Best Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to figure out future demand of products. List of companies are available on BSE and NSE site. After shortlisting then need to collect related information before making investment decision.

      Delete
    2. thank you very much for letting know ,madam.This will help us some direction to at least start searching and trying to spot good stocks ,though it requires whole lot of experience and conviction to the the risk and invest.Best Regards

      Delete
  26. Have sent you mail ma'am please reply.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Ma'am can i start accumulating lincoln pharma from CMP?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can wait for some more correction to add around 130

      Delete
  28. Hello Mam,
    can we invest now Avanti @ what price we can enter?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. u can till buy water base..trading at 100..it can give u above 200% returns with in 2yrs,,even from current price

      Delete
  29. Apart from mam's recommendations I also like the compassionate nature of helping others without any expectations!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wholeheartedly agree with u brother

      Delete
  30. Hi Mam, any views on Chaman Lal Setia Exports? Looks attractive at current levels.... Plz let me know.

    ReplyDelete
  31. I did a brief exercise with dhunseri numebers. Took the list of listed companies in plantation (tea and coffee) in bse and nse and calculated their average P/EPS (avergage valuation multiple). This works out to be 9.92 as of June 01 2016.

    Multiplying that with the last reported EPS of dhunseri gives

    Avg (P/EPS) * Dhunseri EPS

    9.92 * 31.72 = 314.957

    This is the price it should trade at compared against its peers. Clearly it looks undervalued and will keep growing if it is able to grow its EPS in coming quarters.

    Is this one of the right ways to do peer comparison ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it is ok. DTIL deserve better valuation due to FMCG business.

      Delete
  32. NBCC...Maam require ur views.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi mam,
    I have waterbase-1300@76.8,surana-2500@20.7 for long term
    can I add few quantity any of these at these levels or this is enough in these stocks,Please suggest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. depends on the size of ur portfolio..if they are individually more than 10% of your portfolio,,then its enough..u can add techno or tci or kothari

      Delete
  34. Dolly Mam,

    Have sent you my portfolio. Please review and suggest changes. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Mam do you follow sharda crop chem.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, It is good stock for investment, but fresh entry advisable below 300 only.

      Delete
  36. Mam,when can we expect decrease in depreciation burden in Donear.Mam iam currently with no cash in hands to buy new recommendations and i want sell some of donear and invest in next stock suggestions

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will take 2 -3 years to reduce the debt but it better to hold Donear without any swapping.

      Delete
  37. Mam,if the market correction which levels nifty can touch 7500 or 7000 ??..ur suggestions....

    ReplyDelete
  38. Madam,
    Your views on best sector for investment in coming years

    Thanx

    ReplyDelete
  39. Madam,
    Best sector for Q2

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tea, Agro chemicals, Auto ancillaries, Food (Rice processing/milling), Paint

      Delete
  40. Hi mam,
    Cau you please reply on this.
    I have waterbase-1300@76.8,surana-2500@20.7 for long term.
    can I add few more quantity any of these two at current price or is this allocation is enough
    ,i can invest 50,000 now.Please suggest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can add more if % allocation is less than 10%

      Delete
  41. Alp industries has shown good results.
    Do you feel its going to be a turnaround story?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Ma'am your view on chennai petro trading at low PE of less than 4.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Madam,
    Your view plz on Axiscades Engg.

    ReplyDelete
  44. madam

    how is nocil at current price of 49. can i add more or wait for correction

    also comment on its result

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Results are good and further improvement is expected in future. NOCIL is good stock for investment with expected return around 15-20% per year.

      Delete
  45. Mam,

    What is your view on HSIL and Butterfly

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are good stock for long term investment.

      Delete
  46. hats off excellent call waterbase i bought 10000 at 98, u suggest me , then went dwn to 90 rs i bought againg 10000, u still sugest me then i loss my patient it went down 82,, but i have faith on u,because i read some where guru is always guru never dishonor him/her then again i bought 10000 share at 82, it went down to 71,i loss all my confident,but still my heart say guru obey guru on 2nd june it hit 104, my average costing was 90, i sold 27000 share at 100 and my profit 3000 share holding(100% profit share)

    ReplyDelete
  47. Dear Dolly Mam,
    Thanks for your great investment blog "Emotion and Expectation". I would like to start investing in stocks under your expert guidance, and I would like to begin with a concentrated portfolio, with 25% allocation in each stock as advised by your good self. Please suggest four stocks from your recommended stocks. Thank you very much for helping us.
    Riya

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. U can consider buying surana and kothari 10% each..and tiil,dtil,jk agri,tci on corrections for rest of it portfolio

      Delete
    2. Thank you very much.
      Riya

      Delete
  48. Madam,

    your views on next media works ?

    thanx

    ReplyDelete
  49. madam,

    your views on sugar sector ?
    than you

    ReplyDelete
  50. MAdam Ji,

    Why promotors are pledging their shares ? Means huge qty of %.
    I observe many companies promotors shares pledged and currently their holding is 20-30% only.
    generally what is the indication of pledge ?

    May be bankrupt, fear,loan,future hopeless? please throw some lights on this .

    Thanx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1) promoters pledge their holding for personal requirement or for group company.
      2) Pledge to meet debt or interest obligation of same company.

      Second is more serious if pledged more than 50%. If share price fall severely due to market correction than thay have to pledge more to maintain the margin.

      Delete
  51. hi madam,do you track Oriental Carbon?If yes,looking fwd to your advice if one can add it at CMP.thank you

    ReplyDelete
  52. Maam vishnu chemicals or alkali metals which one should i put my mobey on?
    Fr a year ma'am
    Pls guide .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you have bought Vishnu Chemicals 2-3 years ago than it was very easy to realise the benefit of early entry in turnaround company. At present there is no comparison between both companies. Alkali metals definitely give much better % return than Vishnu chem on cmp. It is just matter of time to scale up the business turnover above 100 crore.

      Delete
  53. MAdam,

    In which sector is debit less or no debit


    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It depends upon financial strength of company. In every sector there are some debt free companies. Power, Realty & Infrastructure, Metals are more debt laden sectors.

      Delete
  54. Respected Mam,
    I have sent you my latest portfolio for your review on your gmail id. Request you to kindly find sometime out of your busy schedule and provide your suggestions.
    Thanking you in anticipation.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Hi Mam, any views on Chaman Lal Setia Exports? Looks attractive at current levels.... Plz let me know.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Man what range TCPL packaging and Heritage foods be added? And their expected gains?

    Thank you very much

    ReplyDelete
  57. Hi Maam!

    Thanks for reply to every retail investors.Its really great work.
    One genuine suggestion for the above result illustration..This
    result chat will be more appealing if there would be Expected Target price column.
    I have 2 Questions.
    1.What is the demeager date of TCI ?
    2.what is the target price, you are expecting in ALKAI METALS?

    Thanks
    Raja Y

    ReplyDelete
  58. madam what is your opinion on marksans pharma.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Mam...You entered Chemical sector stocks at the blooming stage early last year....Simply Great and Superb..Did you expect Chinese companies shut-down then...What were the factors that were in your mind then....Kindly reply...

    ReplyDelete
  60. Mam,
    I am new to the markets and has a small doubt... When is the apt time to exit a stock and can you share some inputs on the same.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Dolly mam, at current prices, would you advise to Not enter any of the above stocks?

    Or ok to still enter? Thanks a lot !

    ReplyDelete
  62. Request you to please update with such a excel template after every quarter results. It would be very helpful in tracking the stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Mam,Operating Margins are quite low for Jubilant Industries.Even before March-11.Where as Pidilte ia having opm of 15-20% Any specific Reason mam.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Dear Madam
    i am biggner in stock mkt
    can you suggest stock , i want to invest 5 lakhs

    ReplyDelete
  65. Thank you madam for your recommendation of Donear inds @ rs.20 and Jubliant inds @170/- Now they are trading at rs.40 and rs.230 respectively.I had bought immediately on your valuable recommendation. Kindly tell me at what price I should exit? Can you give your valuable advice reg. v2retail?

    ReplyDelete