Friday, May 12, 2017

Kesoram Industries - Trusted Technology – Solid Strength



CMP = 144




Kesoram Industries is part of the BK Birla Group and one of the oldest conglomerates in India since 1919. It has grown from strength to strength with diversified presence in the cement, tyre and rayon yarn.



Birla Shakti Cement 






Kesoram Industries operates two cement manufacturing plants with a combined capacity of  7. 5 million metric tons. 'Birla Shakti Cement' is the flagship brand of cement division and others brands  'Kesoram' and 'Vasavadatta' are also well established over long period. The cement manufacturing plants are located at Sedam in Karnataka 'Vasavadatta Cement Plant' and Basantnagar in Andhra Pradesh 'Kesoram Cement Plant'. Both are catering to regional demands in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Goa, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu. The plants are strategically located near company leased limestone deposits in the states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Its cement grinding units are also located close to captive power plants. Further, Kesoram procures much of its fly ash from NTPC which has power plants in close proximity to both the cement plants.






Cement division is accredited with ISO 9001, 14001, 18001 and 50001 standards and it is only “Greenco Platinum Certified by CII” plant in the country.






'Birla Shakti Concrete' is the ready mix concrete (RMC) brand of  Kesoram Industries with annual capacity 6.5 lakh cubic meters, it is the largest ready-mixed concrete and aggregate production plant in India. It also offer consulting, research, trading, engineering and other services according to customer requirement. It is the first plant in India to offer customers a mobile application for placing orders.


http://birlashakticoncrete.in/index.html



Birla Tyres







Kesoram tyre manufacturing facility at Balasore was originally set up in 1991 with technology sourced from Pirelli UK, the world-renowned tyre manufacturer. Today Birla Tyres meticulously developed in house technology ensures that the Balasore factory manufactures a wide range of tyres for commercial Vehicles, light commercial vehicles, tractors, construction vehicles, and 2 and 3 Wheelers. 






It is one of the few tyre companies in India that offers complete range of tyres across all vehicle sectors under 'Birla Tyres' brand name. It is among the top six tyre manufacturing companies in India.



http://birlatyre.com/index.php



http://rubberasia.com/2017/02/13/indian-tyre-industry-formidable-growth/



Investment Rationale 



Kesoram Industries owns very strong business and well recognised brands like Birla Tyres (Tyre division) and Birla Shakti (Cement   division). Its business was performing very well (EPS was above 50) and stock was trading in the range of Rs 400 - 500 in year 2006 - 08. Company went for setting up an ambitious greenfield project at at Laksar (Haridwar) to produce 250 MT of truck tyres per day with cost around 1000 crores. Company get caught on wrong foot due to recession during 2008 and later slow down of business growth in cement and automobile sector. Debt burden keep mounting until last year when Aditya Birla group has raised its stake to get ownership control in Kesoram Industry. After that new promoter K Mangalam Birla has taken several restructuring process to trim the debt and make the company profitable.



http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-kesoram-industries-hives-off-rayon-business-as-kumar-mangalam-birla-gets-ownership-control-2194822



The truck and bus radial tyre plant at Haridwar was sold to J K Tyre for Rs 2,200 crore to get rid of a much delayed project carrying high debt burden.



Hiving off its rayon and transparent paper business to unlisted entity, Cygnet Industries, a wholly-owned subsidiary for Rs 480 crore 



Loss making heavy chemical business sold off and divestment in listed companies ( cross holding) at market prices aggregated approximately Rs 470 crores.



After above steps debt and interest came down significantly near to half. Now debt is well manageable at par with industry peers with similar sales and production capacity.






Low rubber prices and positive growth in auto  sector are the major trigger for the tyre business of the company and company supply contract with major auto OEMs in India as well as abroad.



Company has already started the  production of radial tyres for two wheeler, three wheeler and car radial tyre from Balasore new plant. The production of commercial vehicle radial tyre  will start in coming quarters. It is high margin tyre segment which will further enhance the tyre business profitability. 



In cement business, the company sources limestone from its two leasehold mines (one each at both the locations) against royalty payment.



The company meets the entire power requirement for cement manufacturing from its captive coal based power plants, while it sells the surplus power generated (if any) from the plant in the open market.



Company is expected to be a key beneficiary of a cement demand revival in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana where growth of infrastructure will be very high due to creation of new state.



Company has developed a good market for RMC (Ready Mix Concrete). Penetration of RMC has been low at about 8 per cent in India  (USA: 88 per cent; China: 33 per cent; Brazil: 32 per cent) because retail sales comprise mostly of bag cement. It gives good growth possibilities in RMC segment.



Going forward with government’s focus on infrastructure and affordable housing, Housing for All' by 2022, where 11 crore houses have to be constructed at an investment of $ 2 trillion. The cement industry's medium to long term outlook is very optimistic as demand for cement is likely to get boost from industrial and commercial segments as well as from mass housing and mid-income housing schemes across the country.  Cement demand is likely to improve, resulting in higher capacity utilization. Demand from rural market is also expected to rise as better than expected monsoon as well as strong government push for the rural sector will improve rural income. The government has also increased its budget allocation for the IAY (Indira Aawas Yojana), PMGSY (Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana) and MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) that have the potential to further improve cement demand. 




Further details reports on Housing growth, Infrastructure growth,  Commercial real estate growth, Development in Metro, Roads, Airports, Urbanisation and industrialisation development in the country and Government Initiatives towards New Schemes are given in below link



https://www.ibef.org/download/Cement-January-2017.pdf



Conclusion




Kesoram Industries has very good assets,  strong brand name in cement and tyre segment, business network across the country and  capable promoters.  New promoters has taken every step to bring back the company on track. Significant reduction in debt and interest cost has given very clear visibility that company will make turnaround in coming quarters. The cement industry is expected to continue the growth trajectory for long term because government pushing infrastructure development at full stretch. In the recent past tyre sector has shown good momentum coupled with low cost of rubber and improvement in vehicle demand.  Kesoram Industries at cmp 144 is giving very good investment opportunity for mid to long term. It can be given allocation 10 -20% and bought + /- 10% from cmp.







699 comments:

  1. Thanks
    Welcome new gem given by maim

    ReplyDelete
  2. Main
    What is expected return with time frame..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Give me 10 stock now ....I want invest 10000 in every stock for 5 to 10 year which stock I can enter....

      Delete
  3. Thank You so much for the new stock. Madam any target for short term?

    Also, Can you please comment on result of ADF Foods? My portfolio has 14% allocation in ADF.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully company will post positive results in coming quarter, we can expect 50 -100% in year time

      ADF result is good and it will continue to improve further in coming quarters.

      Delete
  4. ☺☺☺Mam 3year me kitna Target price expect karu

    ReplyDelete
  5. Mam this is loss making company..can v still buy...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can wait for some quarters for turnaround in results than buy it above 300

      Just have look on debt, interest cost, market capital and sales revenue of similar production capacity companies like JK Lakshmi Cement than you may able to visualize the potential of Kesoram Ind.

      Similarly exercise for tyre business with its peers

      Company has valuable assets due to this reason they able to reduce more than 3000 crores debt and same time investment in radial tire facility in Balasore plant

      Company still have Rayon and transparent paper business which can be sold if required.

      Now this company belongs to Aditya Birla Group which is largest cement producer in the country. This group has habit of buying stressed asset and making them turnaround. Last year they have bought 17.2 MTPA for 15,900 crores. Now you can estimate the value of Kesoram 7.5 + MTPA cement business.

      http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/cement/jaypee-group-sells-cement-plants-to-ultratech-for-rs-15900-crore/articleshow/51634716.cms

      Delete
    2. Everything related to the company is excellently mentioned in the above article. You can go through it once again.

      Delete
  6. Thanks madam for this enw script

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thank you very much for the new pick.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thank you for the pick maam, Highly appreciate it.
    Does the management has laid out any plans to get rid of the 2000+ cr loan that it has now? are they planning to sell off any more assets to bring down the debt?

    Thanks ahead

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Current debt can be serviced easily.

      Just have look on debt, interest cost, market capital and sales revenue of similar production capacity companies like JK Lakshmi Cement than you may able to visualize the potential of Kesoram Ind.

      Similar comparison for tyre business with its peers

      Company has valuable assets due to this reason they able to reduce more than 3000 crores debt and same time investment in radial tire facility in Balasore plant

      Company still have Rayon and transparent paper business which can be sold if required.

      Now this company belongs to Aditya Birla Group which is largest cement producer in the country. This group has habit of buying stressed asset and making them turnaround. Last year they have bought 17.2 MTPA for 15,900 crores. It will give estimated the value of Kesoram 7.5 + MTPA cement business.

      http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/cement/jaypee-group-sells-cement-plants-to-ultratech-for-rs-15900-crore/articleshow/51634716.cms

      Delete
  9. Thank you for your new valuable recommendation madam.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Mam how much is the allocation we can give to this gem

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mam mentioned in the last line, to give 10-20% allocation.

      Delete
  11. Thank you so much , was waiting since evening for your blog publish !!
    Thank you +Dolly Khanna ji 🙏

    ReplyDelete
  12. Maam
    Please share your views on ABFRL
    THANKS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is good. Pantaloon turn profitable for first time and ABFRL also first time posted year end positive result. Positive trend will continue in coming quarter, need to hold the stock for long term

      Delete
  13. Madam,
    Thanks for the wonderful pick.hope we get at the stock at prescribed price, as post Ur recommendation, on monday. There will be rush to buy this stock.
    Further can u please share ur views on "prozone intu" as I am quite intrigued by this stock. What is the right price to buy? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock has enough liquidity and it can be bought easily within given limit.

      Sorry not tracking prozone intu

      Delete
  14. Mam thank you again for new stock pick.. investment rational was very much satisfying and impressive hardwork is done by you in making us understand so simply..
    1. Is there any chance of kesoram's merger in coming years in any of birla group co.
    2. Will the ready mix concrete concept be value added..and is this concept adopted by any peer co.
    Thank you mam.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kesoram Ind contains Tyre business so there is no possibility of merger because no other birla group company have tyre business.

      RMC business is value addition by time and cost saving. It has good scope and growth possibilities. Some other companies like ACC and Ultratech also entered in this segment,

      http://www.indiancementreview.com/News.aspx?nId=6nUGBXCOfZFMRoICIFMt6A==

      Delete
  15. Dear mam,

    Thanks for new stock recommendation.
    Will we be able to buy below 155 on Monday?
    Normally your stocks tend to open 10% gap up only.
    If we cannot buy on monday will we get chance to buy later in the month?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock has enough liquidity and it can be bought easily within given limit.

      Delete
  16. Dear Madam,
    How is ABFRL result. Last Qtr Sales 170,666 and net loss 1,240. Q4 Sales 162,512 and NP.2,183.
    That means we can expect a small increase in sale in coming quarter will jump the NP right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is good. Pantaloon turn profitable for first time and ABFRL also for first time posted year end positive result. Positive trend will continue in coming quarter, need to hold the stock for long term

      Delete
  17. Thanks a lot mam...
    Excellent learnings through every stock recommended.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hello Mam.
    Thanks for new idea. Kindly comment on the results of abfrl. Thanks n Brgds

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is very good even though profit is very small for big company like ABFRL. Pantaloon turn profitable for first time and ABFRL also first for time posted year end positive result. Positive trend will continue in coming quarter, need to hold the stock for long term

      Delete
  19. Thank you
    Dear Mam,
    There was a news that BK birla group has plan to bring its all cement companies under ultra tech cement,so kesoram will merge to ultratech if its happens? is it good for kesoram?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why BK Birla group will merge its asset with Ultratech?

      What Ultratech will do with tyre business?

      Now Kesoram Ind owned by Aditya Birla group and BK Birla group promoter holds less than 5% shares in it

      Delete
  20. Pls mention the current debt andWhat is present debt/equity ratio.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/506394ba-b36c-43ba-87fe-7e3170403a3a.pdf
      Page # 4

      Delete
  21. Thank You So much for the recommendation

    ReplyDelete
  22. As always a wonderful pick,thanks and appreciated madam

    ReplyDelete
  23. Mam any comment on pennar industries about result on 18 May..there is no moment on stock...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result will be good, our investment is for 3-4 years.

      Delete
  24. Thank you Madam for this recommendation. Hope to get few shares within +10% limit on Monday.

    Madam, Promoters of Nandan Denim have pledged 47.97% of their holding. (Source : https://www.screener.in/company/NDL/).
    Please throw some light on this.

    Thanks & best regards.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock has enough liquidity and it can be bought easily within given limit.

      Need to use BSE or NSE web for latest filing and data

      Delete
  25. Thanks for the new recommendation & a co from cement sector at the time when cement cos r expected to do much better.will it fly like India cements.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will also take similar time to India Cement

      Delete
  26. Thank you ma'am for the new recommendation

    ReplyDelete
  27. Dear Madam, What is your opinion on Coal India?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Dear madam what is your view about ADF FOOD result...its eps and profit are down..so pls give your valuable comment thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is good. EPS gone up 60% from 3 to 5. Overall US business is on break even point. In coming quarters we can expect better results.

      http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/ee524ae6-8f5d-4bc2-ab54-99e17b7d529d.pdf

      Delete
  29. Madam your detailed analysis about adf foodd results, does d result favour d cmp?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is very good. EPS gone up 60% from 3 to 5. Overall US business is on break even point. Continue to hold for 3-4 years.

      Delete
  30. Than you very much for the new reco.

    I am planning to invest in kesoram. I had few questions.
    Kesoram Industries sold off the Haridwar tyre unit in september and recently soldoff the rayon unit. Still the Q3 and Q4 have huge losses. Which units contributed to losses in last two quarters. What are the triggers going forward for the company to turn profitable and when the balasore plant will be operational.

    When will be the next recommendation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Balasore plant is running since 1992 and tire division turnover for FY 2016 -17 is Rs 1727 crores

      Rayon unit is transferred to unlisted entity a wholly-owned subsidiary of Kesoram, Cygnet Industries, for Rs 480 crore but is not sold.

      It seems that you have not read the given information properly and looking for trigger and start date of Balasore plant

      Delete
    2. First try to understand the given stock recommendation. First learn to analyse it,later you can think of other recommendation.

      Delete
  31. Few queries from my side:
    1) The company is posting losses in last few quarters and last few years as well. Whenever it posted profit, it was because of other income. Whats is that other income?
    2) Sales growth is in downtrend for last 10 years and negative ROE. Any major reason besides cyclicity?
    3) Company is taking huge debt and not adding fixed assets and high interest cost is eating away profits. What is it doing with so much borrowings?
    4) Company has other assets 3 times more than its fixed assets, mostly on loans and advances??
    5) From where the operating cash flow is coming from? Is it real and coming from main business?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stocks are not suggested based on past data but on future growth potential and possibilities.

      If looking for past data than MRF and Shree Cements are good stock to analyse and learn.

      Kesoram is available at 144 due to past data and it will change quickly after it start giving positive results within few quarters.

      Delete
  32. What's ur opinion about info amines??

    ReplyDelete
  33. Thanks for this. I see 27% shares pledged
    https://www.nseindia.com/companytracker/cmtracker.jsp?symbol=KESORAMIND&cName=cmtracker_nsedef.css#

    http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/shpSecurities.aspx?scripcd=502937&qtrid=93.00&Flag=New

    Please educate me on how is this factored in ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to analyse cement and tyre business separately to get fair value of the Kesoram Ind.

      Just have look on debt, interest cost, market capital and sales revenue of similar production capacity companies like JK Lakshmi Cement than you may able to visualize the potential of Kesoram Ind.

      Company has valuable assets due to this reason they able to reduce more than 3000 crores debt and same time investment in radial tyre facility in Balasore plant

      Company still have Rayon and transparent paper business which can be sold if required.

      Now this company belongs to Aditya Birla Group which is largest cement producer in the country. This group has habit of buying stressed asset and making them turnaround. Last year they have bought cement plant from JP group with production capacity 17.2 MTPA for 15,900 crores. It gives approximate value around Rs 7000 crores for 7.5 + MTPA cement business of Kesoram. It is only for cement business and ready mix concrete valuation is more than 500 crores. Similarly tyre business approximate valuation is around 3000 crores.

      Current debt status -

      Long term debt = Rs 2438 crores
      Short term debt ( working capital) = 1041

      If we look at above factors Kesoram ind is grossly undervalued stock at cmp 144 with market capital 1693 crores.

      http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/cement/jaypee-group-sells-cement-plants-to-ultratech-for-rs-15900-crore/articleshow/51634716.cms

      Delete
    2. 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

      Delete
    3. mam i think enterprise value is more important then market cap to evaluate any business and EV of kesoram is appx 5k....

      Delete
  34. Madam.
    ADF FOODS EPS is only Rs 5.03 ..don't you think valuations are too high..what's is the PE which will be reasonable ..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ADF was suggested at 152 that time it was under valued. 60 -70 PE ratio is OK

      Delete
  35. Madam
    Pennar industries Topline is expected to grow 14% for FY17 any guess on Bottom line ?? Expecting atleast 20% jump in profits ..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result date is very near, we will analyse it after getting actual results. Definitely top and bottom line are going to improve significantly in coming quarters.

      Delete
  36. Madam ifb industries is trading near 600 . what is your suggestion of entry.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy it near 550 with expected return around 15 -20% per year.

      Delete
  37. Great thankful Madam to your new stock idea, can you share me how to get the real information and anlyse those stocks that are ready to turnaroundlike PennarInd and latest kesoram and also share me how to evaluate the quality of company management and their future vision accurately.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ma'am already said the ability to analyse a stock or company comes from experience and practice.

      Delete
    2. Proficiency in any work will come with experience, interest, time devotion etc.

      Product demand and supply will give the idea of future prospectus of any business.

      https://www.ibef.org/download/Cement-January-2017.pdf

      Delete
  38. Thank you madam for this reccomendation. Can u please share your views on "ganesh benzoplast"?

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hi Dolly madam, Thanks for the wonderful pick, I have missed few of your earlier recommendation.
    Can I still buy ABRFL, ADF at the CMP, if not please suggest your recommended stock which can be bought now, many thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kesoram, pennar, surana solar

      Delete
    2. If we analyse the comments on this blog than it is very easy to understand that it is very common issue with new investors to chase the stock at high price and sell in loss. It is due to lack of self confidence, which causing delay in taking timely decision.

      Kesoram is available at very low price but most of the new investors will not be able to take the timely decision and start chasing it once it will go beyond buying range.

      It happened in almost every stocks like TIIL, Jubilant, Omkar, Pushkar, ADF , ABFRL etc. Most of stocks the stocks have given enough chance to enter +/- 10% from suggested price.

      Delete
  40. Madam,
    Kothari Petro seems to be moving now. Will it be a good time to enter?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mam already said below 20rs is good price to enter for kothari. You are having option of kesoram and pennar to invest near suggested price.

      Delete
    2. It is good stock to enter below 20

      Delete
  41. Hi Ma'am
    Between Pennar and Kesoram which one is better to choose? (need to choose due to lack of funds)

    Thank you
    -Srinivas

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are from different sector and both are having equal growth possibilities in future. Choice is yours. If you are having little amount,you can invest in a single company. If you are having more funds you can give equal allocation for both.

      Delete
    2. Both are good but your timely decision is most important.

      Delete
  42. Dolly ma'am I am looking to exit from L&T, IDFC, Tech mahindra and invest this money in kesoram industries which will be 20% of my portfolio. Need ur suggestion ma'am.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Every detail regarding kesoram is mentioned above. Choice is yours. But try to hold any blog stock for atleast 3 years after purchase.

      Delete
    2. You can buy Kesoram Ind with full confidence for decent return in mid to long term.

      Sorry not tracking L&T, IDFC, Tech mahindra

      Delete
  43. Madam ...I have started investing on your recommendations recently. Thanks for recommending nice stocks to people like me. Can LT foods be brought around 65 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can be bought below 40rs for 20-25% return per year. Kesoram is good option at cmp

      Delete
    2. LT food is good stock to buy below 40 in case of correction. Not advisable to buy any stock after major rally. It was available below 30 ( before split of FV 300) during the start of year 2017.

      Delete
    3. Thanks Madam for your suggestion.

      Delete
  44. Good evening ma'am
    ABFRL to raise up to 1250 Crore through NCDs, is it a good for the company??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is good company and for business expansion

      http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/7496e6ab-641b-48d0-a877-8d0ebc795215.pdf

      Delete
  45. Namashkar,your kind opinion on welcorp ,is it right time and levels to buy ? Although holding a small quantity and small allocation.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Related to waterbase,......mam what's your view

    https://scroll.in/article/836294/shrimp-farming-is-booming-in-tamil-nadu-but-the-cost-is-water-and-soil-contamination

    ReplyDelete
  47. Madam,
    Kesoram website says its still BKBirla group co

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Around 47% shareholding belongs to Aditya Birla companies like Manav Investment and Trading, Pilani Investment and Industries and Century Textile and industries

      Age of B K Birla is around 92 years. He is still honorary chairman but major decisions are taken by KM Birla

      Delete
  48. Thanks mam for new multibagger recco. I joined this blog around one month back. I am big fan of yours.
    Thanks and congratulations for ADF Foods 100% return just in 2 months, though I don't have.
    I have bought Pennar Ind and Surana Solar, Monday will buy Kesoram Ind.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Madam, I started buying pennar recently only because it had a small correction and came near your recommended price, But i dont have much cash and I dont want to buy on margin. Which stock is better at the recommended price?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are good stocks. Pennar will give slow / steady return and Kesoram will move faster.

      Delete
  50. Prism cement ltd purchase kar sakta hu kya ?

    ReplyDelete
  51. Just starting the concept of turnaround stories Abfrl is a gem , from 100 crs net loss in 2016 to 54 crs net profit in 2017 , surana solar yet to perform but the drastic changes in solar sector will definitely have positive effect in Surana very soon. Now, coming to Kesoram Industries it is again a company taken over by Aditya birla group at Cmp 144 it is very underlying , don't look at current results but start looking it's businesses tyres and cement both will perform soon. . thank you madam for such gems ....

    ReplyDelete
  52. Completely agree with Mr Hemantkumar.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Is it right time to Invest in surana solar ?
    Thnx Mam

    ReplyDelete
  54. Thank you Maam for sharing valuable pick..is there any telegram channel or other blog where I can follow you
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No need to follow any where , your presence on this board is enough for permanent lifetime membership.

      Delete
  55. Thanks mam for your new recommendation. Regards

    ReplyDelete
  56. Somewhere in your comments you mentioned Kesoram's Tyre business is valued at around 3000 Cr. May you please provide a rational or reason for coming to 3000 Cr ? For learning purposes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very good question

      Actual cost for setting up plant to similar capacity of 6 million tyres per year is more than 5000 crores but I have given only 3000 crores valuation. Brand name value of ' Birla Tyres' is not included.

      Recently Appolo Tyre has raised the domestic expansion capex for 6000 tyres per day ( 2.2 million per year) for 1700 crores. Now you can calculate the valuation of Birla Tyre Balasore Plant

      http://rubberasia.com/2016/12/05/indian-tyre-majors-expansion-mode/

      http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/kesoram-industries-lines-up-rs-600-crore-capex-for-2016-17-116072801058_1.html

      Delete
  57. Can we enter Emami infra @CMP ?

    ReplyDelete
  58. At the outset I would like to greet you with a Namaste . I have just discovered your blog a couple of days back. I have read every thread of yours and it has enriched me manifold.I am overwhelmed by your gesture of replying every comments and explaining queries in the best way possible. I have read each and every comment posted and replied on each and every recommendation as well. A great learning experience. For me you are my Guru (Drona). May god give you good health and life.. Prayers... Couldnt thank you enough ..

    ReplyDelete
  59. Dear Mam - Excellent recommendation. One suggestion, please do give more insights on valuation ,like you have in the comments section. It helps in developing our own valuation methodology (learning purpose) plus only when your are convinced about a stock you can buy and hold to reap the full benefit of a recommendation. Most people end up selling stock for 30-40% gain and do not realise the full potential gain.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Your thought on coal Ind at current Price would be much appreciated madam?

    ReplyDelete
  61. Madam please share why Dtil share price is not moving where as all other recomanded stock price is moving very fast...Any change in view for Dtil..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No change in fundamental of stock and no change in previous view for DTIL. It unable to perform well due to drought in Malawi for two years

      https://phys.org/news/2016-04-malawi-declares-national-disaster-drought.html

      http://worldteanews.com/news/east-africa-drought-affects-tea-production

      Delete
  62. Dear mam, thanks much for this reco. I was a scapegoat for a hoax call last year and saw huge losses for the size of my portfolio. I'll meet the losses with your recos since Shree Pushkar. Learning to understand book value vs market value slowly.. Thanks again for your noble heart :)

    ReplyDelete
  63. Thanks a ton for your reccomendation of kesoram inds. Can we buy kesoram 20 % of my porfolio with full confidence or 10 % in 2 lots as market is at higher level. please advise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, you can allocate up to 20% even at cmp.

      Delete
  64. Mam,
    Thanks for the new recommendation. brought at 150/.
    Today inox wind is down due to bad results.can we purchase at cmp for long term.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy it with expected return around 15% per year

      Delete
  65. Hi madam, what is ur view on Sirkalahasti pipes? Holding it from Rs.250 levels. The recent result does not look so good?

    ReplyDelete
  66. Madam,
    Please share ur views on venus remedies. As it seems to be recovering price wise but still debt is high and bottom-line seems to be very stressed. Your brief reply may be helpful to understand d Dynamics.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking above stock from last few quarters.

      Delete
  67. Mam, Bought Kesoram industries at 150.66. Hope this is good price and given highest weightage 15% of total investment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It will give decent return, need to hold with patience.

      Delete
  68. Mam, I bought TCI 600 quantity at 296 before demerger and received 300 quantity of TCI exps. what is the Average price of TCI exps of 300 quantity.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TCI Exp is free of cost at you buying price of TCI (Rs 296). It means once TCI stock price will reach at 296 TCI Express will become free of cost.

      Delete
  69. Man can v buy kesoram, Inox wind & Pennar Ind at cmp?

    ReplyDelete
  70. Thnaks for the scrip. Maám any view on Dlink India ltd.?

    ReplyDelete
  71. Continuous falling solar tariffs. How its positive / negative for Surana solar and for solar industry also.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good for solar sector, companies, country and every person. Need to keep long term view at least for 5 years.

      Delete
    2. Bought 3000 surana solar @21.99 its moving up today

      Delete
  72. Hi Mam, NDL started moving - Can I hold it if have long term view like 3-4 years.. Can we expect 200 % gains??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No change in previous view for NDL.

      15 -20% per year

      Delete
  73. Dear Mam...Can you give me target price for Avanti feeds..currently at CMP 1077 after wonderful Q4 results....Will it cross 1800 by q1 results...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aquaculture industry is subjected to risks like diseases, floods, demand and price fluctuation etc so buying seasonal stocks at very high price is extremely risky.

      Delete
  74. Thank you for the next recommendation.
    Much appreciate all your hard work.

    One question is - when is a good time to exit a stock/book profits?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Make your investment free of cost as soon as possible and keep the remaining as long as you can

      Delete
  75. Thanks Madamji for the new recommendation, got in well with in the price range mentioned..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it has given very good chance to enter near suggested price.

      Delete
  76. Thanks mam on Keosram & pennar,
    Pls advice of BS ltd & Visagar polytex

    ReplyDelete
  77. Madam can we buy AVanti Feeds, Jayant Agro and Sharda Corpchem now. They are already multibagger.

    I am holding avanti @ 900 can to continue to hold or book profit. Also i have Jayant Agro @550.

    Also buy sharda today @ 550.

    Plz give your valuable suggesions. No one talk about this screpts on TV.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All are good stocks, you can continue to hold for further gain. Stock will move up with its business strength and results not by TV coverage.

      Delete
  78. Thanks for wonderful pick with Tyre and Cement together. I bought 1000 stocks today.

    My question - Kohinoor foods has 1000 cr+ sales with 25 cr + profit with market cap of less than 300 cr. It has similar product as ADF Foods. Why it is not valued high compared to ADF foods. For my learning purpose, please advise.

    One difference I see in Kohinoor has margin of 2.5% where ADF has margin of 8-10%. Is that the reason.


    Thanks
    Siva

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'Kohinoor Brand' rice and packed food now belongs to McCormick.

      Now company is selling loose rice due to this reason profit margin are very low and company can not use 'Kohinoor Brand' in packaged food of rice.

      https://www.vccircle.com/kohinoor-foods-and-mccormick-dispute-heads-arbitration-london/

      http://www.just-food.com/news/mccormick-to-own-100-of-india-jv-kohinoor-after-settling-rice-dispute_id136461.aspx

      http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/food/kohinoor-foods-form-jv-with-us-firm-mccormick/articleshow/8696189.cms

      Delete
    2. Thanks Mam. When it comes to buying range, please advise.

      Thanks
      Siva

      Delete
  79. Dolly Mam,

    Is it a good price to buy ABFL at cmp? Please advice.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Mam, can we expect good results from xpro and Kothari, water base as Avanti feeds results are good

    ReplyDelete
  81. Mam, considering the current cyber attacks globally from Wannacry malware. Can we look at antivirus, it security development companies like Quick heal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This type of antivirus is not effective in such cyber attacks.

      Delete
  82. Exit prices for below please -

    Donear Jeans bought @ 24.30
    Kamdhenu bought @ 45.00
    TCI @ 184
    Kotharipet @ 25.5
    Tanla Software @ 34.20

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If allocation is 15-20 % than you can book partial profit near 100% and keep the free of cost shares for 300% and above return.

      Delete
  83. Mam, your views on Max Ventures please

    ReplyDelete
  84. Thanks you mam for UR New Superb recommendation.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Dear Madam,
    Silly Question - When you advise please 10-20% allocation of "Portfolio".
    Should we consider this portfolio Rs : of "Principal amount" or " Portfolio "including profit"?.
    Say for Example - I have one share of Rs 100 (Principal amount) with a profit of Rs 100 (Total Portfolio Rs 200)
    So i shall I allocate/buy shares of Rs 10 (10% - Principal amount ) or Rs 20 (10% including profit).Thank you in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 20% of initial investment (principal amount). Count profit separate and keep the free of cost stocks for long term.

      Delete
  86. Respectwd mam
    Thanks for new gem.mam plz ur valuable view regarding sanghi ind.
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Mam, I bough Kesoram Ind yesterday @ 150. And bought Surana Solar few days back,today it moved up to 20%.
    Thanks mam.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Hello dolly ma'am. Hope you are doing fine. First of all thanks for the new stock pick maam. It is amazing to see pondy oxides delivering almost 800% returns from suggested price with in 2 years time frame,though I am not invested in it. Hope all the stocks from the blog have similar potential and will able to deliver similar kind of returns sooner or later.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Patience and self confidence is important to keep the stock for longer period. Market is always testing the confidence and most of the investors ( 80%) unable to see even 100% profit.

      Delete
  89. Can we expect next reco in next one month.

    ReplyDelete

  90. Dear Dolly Madam.
    I am very bulish on KINGFA science ..This is considering the following :1. High promoter stake . 75%
    2. Market leader and only Chinese listed company.
    3. Recently concluded Rights issue at Rs 740.
    4. Expansion plans of the company in 2017 and 2018.
    5. Near debt free status.
    6. Good demand for their products In Auto and consumer durables where demand is very good.
    Kindly give your views .Bought today at Rs 810 levels . Expecting it to double in 18 months time ..Regards

    ReplyDelete
  91. Hello mam, I am holding PEBS...is it worth to hold on to it in view of long term...Or exit w/o loss and enter in pennar industries..What abt AFD foods at CMP.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to stick with investment decision at least for 3 years. It is good stock , you can continue to hold.

      Delete
  92. Would you suggest to enetr ADF foods at cmp for longterm...I am new in stocks..if not which stock is best to buy... Kesoram industries????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy any stock +/- 10% from suggested price.

      Delete
  93. Madam pl suggest any of your old recommendation which may be fresh purchased still now. All ur stocks are now reached high price. Still any old recommendations which can be bought in this level considering 2017-2018 pl suggest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy any stock +/- 10% from suggested price. ( Kesoram and Pennar Ind are still in given buying range)

      Delete
  94. Mam your view on granules India for 2025

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is good stock with expected return around 15% per year

      Delete
  95. Wht abt alkali metal... It's going down... Can i sell it nd purchase pennar... Or hold it

    ReplyDelete
  96. Dear respected mam,
    Finally surana on track,hope this time it will sustain at higher levels.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Hi Dolly Madam,
    I was viewing your earlier recommendations and the stock which seems to be closer to your recommended price is Surana Solar CMP - 25, is it ideal to invest in this stock for a long term.
    Please advice, many thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Madam Ji orient bell ltd ko current price Rs..292 par purchase kar Santa hu kya ???

    ReplyDelete
  99. Madam please take your attention on the repro India. It is very good stock .And if you already have your precious attention on it then please share some view on it . I want to buy 1000 shares after your advice.
    Thank you mam

    ReplyDelete
  100. Dear madam ji.... good morning

    What about Omkar de merge record date & q3 results will good?

    ReplyDelete
  101. Hello Mem,

    Thank You.
    I am continuously following this blog and help me make my portfolio much much healthy.
    I am having original 250 shares of Pilani Invesment. Is it wise to sell and invest the out come of that in one of ur suggested shares.
    As I am hesitating to disburse this oldest stock of my portfolio, please advise me clear SELL if u find it suitable. If u say YES w, than what to buy against it fully.
    Your opinion is very very valuable to me.
    Thanks a lot again.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Mam I purchased Surana solar at Rs 30 . Can I average it to buy more

    ReplyDelete
  103. Mam, can u please advice on pratibha industries? Shall i buy??

    ReplyDelete
  104. Hi mam, in an earlier comment on kesoram valuation you had mentioned that value of cement and tyre business is 7000 and 3000 credit and stock is undervalued, are you comparing this value with current Enterprise value? If yes can we say that it is comparison between Enterprise value and asset value? Pl guide me wanted to learn this from you.

    ReplyDelete