Saturday, July 29, 2017

Orient Paper & Industries - Switch to Smart




CMP = 96


Orient Paper & Industries Ltd (OPIL) is flagship company of CK Birla Group  and incorporated in 1939. The company has two divisions, the paper and consumer electrical division. The paper division produces a wide range of tissue, writing, printing, and speciality papers, paper products and boards. It is the largest  producers and exporters of tissue papers from  India.






The consumer electrical division is the largest manufacturer and exporter of fans from India with more than 60% share in exports and a dominating presence in more than 35 international markets. 'Orient Electric' is one of the leading consumer electrical brands in India with a diverse portfolio of fans, lighting, home appliances and switchgears.  The company has strong R&D capabilities, which enable it  to develop and  innovate new products that meet the needs and expectations of modern consumers.  OPIL has five manufacturing units located at Amlai (Madhya Pradesh), Guwahati (Assam), Kolkata (West Bengal), Faridabad (Haryana) and Noida (Uttar Pradesh).



https://www.orientelectric.com/media/videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxgnPl6eWiI



Paper Division






The paper unit at Amlai Madhya Pradesh is engaged in the manufacturing of tissue papers, writing and printing papers, photocopier papers etc. It  is  having a capacity of 1,00,000 tonnes p.a. (printing and writing paper 45000 tpa and tissue paper 55,000 tpa) An eco-friendly enterprise, Orient Paper and Industries undertakes reforestation and other restorative measures. The manufacturing unit is ISO 14001 certified and has received several awards for environmental excellence. It is one of the few companies to have received the ECO mark license from the Government of India. It is also certified for FSC-COC which is compliance of all norms related to raw materials in paper production. Orient paper and paper products are exported to several countries across the world.



http://orientlinks.com/products/



Electric Division





"Orient" brand extended to  wide range of consumer electric products and launched its lighting, home appliances and switchgears product range few years back. Company has decided to rebrand its operation as it aims to become a provider of smart home solutions. Orient Electric is committed to creating great customer experiences by exceeding global benchmarks in quality and best practices. Its entire range is in line with its brand promise of ‘switch to smart’ meaning that each product is technologically advanced, aesthetically pleasing and energy efficient.  It is today the third largest manufacturer of LED lamps in India and is also the first Indian lighting brand to have been awarded BEE star rating for lamps. In the Home Appliances category, Orient Electric offers a wide range of products including water heaters, air coolers and small kitchen appliances. In Switchgears category, it offers MCBs enabled with the revolutionary SDB (Snap Disc Bi-Metal) technology which provides threefold advantage – precise tripping, better repeatability and longer life.


Fans



Company has increased its share of the  domestic fans market and maintained its leadership  position in  the export with 60% market share in total exports of fans from India. Orient has consolidated its position in the premium fans segment with the launch of  Aero Quiet fans. Commissioned a new manufacturing facility at Guwahati, which will help in expanding market reach. In-house R&D unit at Faridabad plant received the prestigious DSIR  certification




Company has  launched the high end fans incorporated with BLDC (brushless direct current motor) technology fans which the company claims that the fans would consume 50 per cent less energy, provide high speed even in low voltages.



https://www.orientelectric.com/img/footmedia/brochure/FAN.pdf
https://www.orientelectric.com/fan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv4Pl63yMO0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUOco2A_q-E


Lighting







Orient is the first company to get BEE star rating for its LED bulbs. Orient has consolidated its position in the LED bulb segment with market share of 11% which places it at the no. 3 position in India. Company has started manufacturing LED street lights with scope of good growth in the tender business. Company has made successful in entry into Street lighting segment with execution of 20000 streetlights across 4 states in India.

Orient has strengthened its R&D department for LED lighting with most of the major testing being done in-house now. Further investment has been committed for Goniometer equipment. This will add to the capabilities in design and testing of Street lighting and other professional luminaires which are the major areas of growth in future.


https://www.orientelectric.com/lighting

https://www.orientelectric.com/img/footmedia/brochure/LIGHTING.pdf


Home appliances







Orient has significantly enhanced its product portfolio in terms of premiumness and quality. Also enhanced the distribution of the width of the range. Company has created a brand pull in its home appliances division as well leveraging the success of its 'Orient' brand. Launched new models of air coolers, water heaters, electric irons and wet grinders in about 100 cities with prime focus on 60 Cities. Company run 159 Authorized Service Centers spread across the country.






https://www.orientelectric.com/home-appliances

https://www.orientelectric.com/home-appliances/air-cooler

https://www.orientelectric.com/img/footmedia/brochure/Appliances.pdf


Switchgears







Switchgears are very important safety components for homes as well as commercial spaces. Orient Electric offers a high quality range of MCBs and successfully established itself in new sub - segment. Orient switchgears are with differentiated technology and built for extra safety


https://www.orientelectric.com/switch-gear

https://www.orientelectric.com/img/footmedia/brochure/SWITCHGEAR.pdf



Marketing and distribution



Orient has an enviable distribution network of 100,000 retailers and 3,500 dealers and distributors in India. It is advantage for company while launching any new products like switchgear, air cooler, water heater etc  which can be sold leveraging the existing network.


‘Smart Shop’ Franchise







‘Smart Shop’ serve as exclusive and franchised one-stop shop  which offers complete range of Orient Electric products under one roof. The spacious store serves as a one-stop shop where consumers will be able to see, touch, feel and purchase various products of Orient Electric including Fans, Lighting, Home Appliances and Switchgear.


https://www.orientelectric.com/franchise/overview

https://www.orientelectric.com/franchise/photo-gallery-list/3

https://www.orientelectric.com/media/events-&-exhibitions



Orient Electric E-shop




Strengthened e-commerce presence by selling products through Orient’s own e-commerce portal as well as through other leading online marketplaces.



http://www.orientelectriceshop.com/



Investment Rationale



Orient Paper and Industries Ltd is going to demerge its electrical appliances division to unlock significant value for the shareholders of the company. 

The vertical demerger is to facilitate both paper and consumer electric businesses to focus on their core competencies and to pursue their independent strategies.

It will enable a dedicated management to focus and accelerate the growth of the consumer electric business. 

The nature of risk and competition involved is completely distinct, so it become necessary to make separate teams of professionals to manage the two divisions.

This separation will enable the access to varied sources of funds for the rapid growth of both businesses.


http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/77f431e6-e5ac-4eb0-87e9-fb6f467fd27d.pdf


Demerger was proposed in September 2016 which is very near to completion within few months.


http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/11FECFBC_BABF_4132_BAFD_E6D5236E93C8_134008.pdf








Orient Electric has become established player in lighting, switchgear and home appliances products such as air cooler, water heater, induction cooker, mixer juicer grinder, blender and kettle under the brand name of 'Orient' in last few years. It makes the company direct competitor of Havells India,  Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical and Symphony. Demerger of Orient Electric will unlock decent value for investors if we analyse and compare these companies with Orient Electric.


Orient Electric business performance for  2016 -17 in all its product segments.

  • Orient Fan registered 11% growth in the domestic market, growing faster than the industry average 5 -6%.
  • Orient’s lighting trade business grew by 12%, higher than the industry average  growth of  5%.
  • Orient Home Appliances has registered a 35% revenues  growth against  the industry averaged growth of 5% in FY 2016-17
  • Orient Switchgears has achieved a total 19% revenue growth over last year.


Manufacturing capacity has improved with the opening of new plant at Guwahati to cover low penetrated north -east region.

Aggressive stance is being taken to open “Orient Smart Shops” in all major cities to improve customer experience with the brand. In the long run it will turn the traditional business model of the company into  asset light franchise business model.

Orient Electric is getting a good opportunity for strengthening its presence because with implementation of GST there is gradual reduction in market share of the unorganized sector, it will reflect in results of  coming quarters.

Introduce disruptive innovation in fans covering unaddressed segments, it resulted significant gain in market share of premium fans segment. Company has launched of several premium models of fans and coolers to shift the focus toward fast growing high margin business. 

Improve market share in the consumer lighting  segment and increase brand recall.

Participate aggressively in the street lighting   business.

Aggressive positioning and acquisition of market  share in air-coolers and small appliances segment


Increase e-commerce retailing and presence in  modern organised retail








Company has taken several steps in past few years to ensure the turnaround of paper division. It is mainly as a result of cost reduction and efficiency improvements.

Focus shifting towards high margin tissue paper business, Orient has 85,000 TPA of paper capacity split as  60,000 TPA of writing and printing paper and 25,000 TPA of Tissue paper. Tissue paper demand in India continues to register double digit growth with an equally strong export market. Orient is doubling its capacity in tissue plant to 55,000 TPA and reducing the production of low margin writing and printing paper to 45000 TPA.  Tissue paper expansion project have started commercial production with effect from 1st May 2017. This will double  the tissue paper capacity and further consolidate the  position as  the largest  producers and exporters of tissue papers from  India. This will also contribute to increasing volumes and profitability of the paper business in coming quarters.


http://orientpaperindia.com/beta/resources/fck_upload/EC20Tissue203dt17thOct16.pdf


Company has been able to resolve problem of power shortage by setting up a captive power plant of 55MW capacity and obtained additional coal linkage sufficient to  meet the total coal requirement.

Increased pulpwood plantation covering 2026  hectare and planned to increase by 50%. to achieve enhanced raw material security and tie up with local farmers for sourcing supply of pulpwood.

The water shortage issue has also been addressed by constructing another reservoir to increase our water storage capacity by a further 130 million gallons, which enhances our total  storage capacity to 720 million gallons to overcome this problem of water shortages.


Amlai plant has reduced the water consumption by nearly 40% and achieved zero liquid discharge


Other significant assets held by the company it will remain with Orient Paper after demerger.

  • Orient  paper  has  a  land  parcel  of 800  acres  at Brajarajnagar,  Odisha,  
  • Orient Paper & Industries Ltd  hold 1,545,140 shares of Century Textiles and Industries under public shareholding is worth  of Rs 185 crores
  • Orient Paper & Industries Ltd hold  906,360 shares of HIL under promoter shareholding is worth  of Rs 100 crores


Conclusion


'Orient' is very strong and well established brand in electrical consumer products in India.  Lighting, consumer durable segment will be the direct beneficiary of the rise in disposable income from pay hikes,  housing for all,  implementation of GST for organised players. Home appliances have a very low penetration in rural part of India with improvement in power availability, increase in disposable income and shift in focus on branded category products is giving good growth visibility for longer period. The company is continuously improving its product quality and introducing  a new lifestyle-based product range which are having very good growth potential.

The stock is trading since last 4 -5 months in range of Rs 80 - 96. It has not participated in any rally due to demerger  process pending with NCLT. Now it is in the last stage of demerger process so it is right time to enter before announcement of record date. Orient Paper & Industries at cmp 96 is giving very good investment opportunity for short term as well as for long term. It can be bought +/- 10% from cmp with allocation upto 20%.







Saturday, July 15, 2017

Update on Surana Solar and Next Stock


Dear Readers,



We have seen several comments on blog regarding Surana Solar and future outlook of solar sector. Need to read the below details and information given under links to know the matter in depth. 



1) Stock was suggested on 1 Jan 2016 at Rs 23 based on huge development in solar sector with ambitious target of 100 GW which will make  India one of the largest Green Energy producers in the world.



http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=122567



2) Government has started the solar mission with full support to domestic manufacturers with sufficient budget and reservation.


http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/gcrt-cfa-notification-04-03-2016.pdf



3) Issue started in Feb 2106  when India lost an appeal at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against a decision that found the country’s regulations that mandate use of local content for some solar power projects. Under the National Solar Mission, India has mandated that around 5% of the planned 100 GW installed solar power capacity use locally-manufactured modules and equipment.



http://www.greenpeace.org/india/en/Press/Greenpeace-Supports-Indias-decision-to-challenge-WTO-ruling-on-Indias-Solar-Mission/



4) US companies did not get any benefit from above objection because most of the solar plant developers opted for chinese solar product. Chinese companies were struggling due to slowdown since mid of 2015. They have quoted very low price for huge volume with very short delivery time. 



http://www.saurenergy.com/solar-energy-articles/indian-solar-energy-market-analysis



5) Domestic solar component manufacturers are unable to compete on cost with chinese manufacturers. Indian solar manufacturers have filed a  petition with Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) calling for the introduction of anti-dumping (AD) measures on solar cells and modules produced in China, Malaysia and Taiwan. 



https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/06/06/breaking-indian-solar-companies-file-ad-petition-against-china/



The Stock corrected 10 -15% after the news that the Ministry of Finance has refused to approve a Rs 20,000 crore ($3.1 billion) relief package for solar cell and module manufacturers.



http://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/finance-ministry-rejects-rs-20000-crore-plan-for-local-solar-equipment-firms/59279143



6) With current situation, it is very much possible to achieve the National Solar Mission for 100 GW power generation capacity by 2022. It has helped Indian solar mission to achieve the  set target on time at low cost. Solar Power cost fell down from Rs 6.5 per unit to Rs 2.5 per unit. 



http://www.mnre.gov.in/



We can expect change in solar policy or financial support for domestic manufacturers in next 2 -3 years or  near to the completion of 50 - 60 GW installed solar capacity.



Our Strategy on Investment




Generally I used to reply on several comments as given below



" Need to stick with investment decision for 2-3 years unless change in fundamental of the company" 



" It will give either good gain or good experience" 


It means that we should give at least for 2-3 years to see the improvement in performance of any company.  It is also good hold a stock even with negative return because it will test and build our patience, gives good experience to control on emotions and to remind us for not repeating the same mistake again.   



" Allocate upto  5 -10% only in stocks below 25 rupees and keep only one stock in portfolio" 



" Buy stocks  within + / - 10 % from suggested price"



Even in any condition the recent fall in stock price of Surana Solar will not make any major impact on overall portfolio value and portfolio will able to give consistent return around 40 -50% per year along with loss of Surana Solar. So it should not be the any major cause of concern for our blog members.






But it gives different feeling when we look at comments posted on the blog.


1) It may be possible that investors have already got enough good experience to control their patience in last 18 months with Surana Solar. 



2) They may have bought at higher price and given more than 10% allocation to Surana Solar.



Whatever may be the reason, we have to resolve the issue or concern raised by our blog members.



If above mentioned conditions are true than it is right time to swap Surana Solar with next stock. Next stock will be posted in the last week of July or first week of August. It is fundamentally very strong stock and able to give around 50 -100% return within one year and very good investment option for long term.



It should not be taken as sell call for Surana Solar and at the same time above details did not left any room for confusion. Now next update will be given for Surana Solar on 1 January 2019. 


I unable to reply several emails due to lack of time. Hopefully I will respond it in coming weekends.