Saturday, July 29, 2017

Orient Paper & Industries - Switch to Smart




CMP = 96


Orient Paper & Industries Ltd (OPIL) is flagship company of CK Birla Group  and incorporated in 1939. The company has two divisions, the paper and consumer electrical division. The paper division produces a wide range of tissue, writing, printing, and speciality papers, paper products and boards. It is the largest  producers and exporters of tissue papers from  India.






The consumer electrical division is the largest manufacturer and exporter of fans from India with more than 60% share in exports and a dominating presence in more than 35 international markets. 'Orient Electric' is one of the leading consumer electrical brands in India with a diverse portfolio of fans, lighting, home appliances and switchgears.  The company has strong R&D capabilities, which enable it  to develop and  innovate new products that meet the needs and expectations of modern consumers.  OPIL has five manufacturing units located at Amlai (Madhya Pradesh), Guwahati (Assam), Kolkata (West Bengal), Faridabad (Haryana) and Noida (Uttar Pradesh).



https://www.orientelectric.com/media/videos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxgnPl6eWiI



Paper Division






The paper unit at Amlai Madhya Pradesh is engaged in the manufacturing of tissue papers, writing and printing papers, photocopier papers etc. It  is  having a capacity of 1,00,000 tonnes p.a. (printing and writing paper 45000 tpa and tissue paper 55,000 tpa) An eco-friendly enterprise, Orient Paper and Industries undertakes reforestation and other restorative measures. The manufacturing unit is ISO 14001 certified and has received several awards for environmental excellence. It is one of the few companies to have received the ECO mark license from the Government of India. It is also certified for FSC-COC which is compliance of all norms related to raw materials in paper production. Orient paper and paper products are exported to several countries across the world.



http://orientlinks.com/products/



Electric Division





"Orient" brand extended to  wide range of consumer electric products and launched its lighting, home appliances and switchgears product range few years back. Company has decided to rebrand its operation as it aims to become a provider of smart home solutions. Orient Electric is committed to creating great customer experiences by exceeding global benchmarks in quality and best practices. Its entire range is in line with its brand promise of ‘switch to smart’ meaning that each product is technologically advanced, aesthetically pleasing and energy efficient.  It is today the third largest manufacturer of LED lamps in India and is also the first Indian lighting brand to have been awarded BEE star rating for lamps. In the Home Appliances category, Orient Electric offers a wide range of products including water heaters, air coolers and small kitchen appliances. In Switchgears category, it offers MCBs enabled with the revolutionary SDB (Snap Disc Bi-Metal) technology which provides threefold advantage – precise tripping, better repeatability and longer life.


Fans



Company has increased its share of the  domestic fans market and maintained its leadership  position in  the export with 60% market share in total exports of fans from India. Orient has consolidated its position in the premium fans segment with the launch of  Aero Quiet fans. Commissioned a new manufacturing facility at Guwahati, which will help in expanding market reach. In-house R&D unit at Faridabad plant received the prestigious DSIR  certification




Company has  launched the high end fans incorporated with BLDC (brushless direct current motor) technology fans which the company claims that the fans would consume 50 per cent less energy, provide high speed even in low voltages.



https://www.orientelectric.com/img/footmedia/brochure/FAN.pdf
https://www.orientelectric.com/fan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv4Pl63yMO0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUOco2A_q-E


Lighting







Orient is the first company to get BEE star rating for its LED bulbs. Orient has consolidated its position in the LED bulb segment with market share of 11% which places it at the no. 3 position in India. Company has started manufacturing LED street lights with scope of good growth in the tender business. Company has made successful in entry into Street lighting segment with execution of 20000 streetlights across 4 states in India.

Orient has strengthened its R&D department for LED lighting with most of the major testing being done in-house now. Further investment has been committed for Goniometer equipment. This will add to the capabilities in design and testing of Street lighting and other professional luminaires which are the major areas of growth in future.


https://www.orientelectric.com/lighting

https://www.orientelectric.com/img/footmedia/brochure/LIGHTING.pdf


Home appliances







Orient has significantly enhanced its product portfolio in terms of premiumness and quality. Also enhanced the distribution of the width of the range. Company has created a brand pull in its home appliances division as well leveraging the success of its 'Orient' brand. Launched new models of air coolers, water heaters, electric irons and wet grinders in about 100 cities with prime focus on 60 Cities. Company run 159 Authorized Service Centers spread across the country.






https://www.orientelectric.com/home-appliances

https://www.orientelectric.com/home-appliances/air-cooler

https://www.orientelectric.com/img/footmedia/brochure/Appliances.pdf


Switchgears







Switchgears are very important safety components for homes as well as commercial spaces. Orient Electric offers a high quality range of MCBs and successfully established itself in new sub - segment. Orient switchgears are with differentiated technology and built for extra safety


https://www.orientelectric.com/switch-gear

https://www.orientelectric.com/img/footmedia/brochure/SWITCHGEAR.pdf



Marketing and distribution



Orient has an enviable distribution network of 100,000 retailers and 3,500 dealers and distributors in India. It is advantage for company while launching any new products like switchgear, air cooler, water heater etc  which can be sold leveraging the existing network.


‘Smart Shop’ Franchise







‘Smart Shop’ serve as exclusive and franchised one-stop shop  which offers complete range of Orient Electric products under one roof. The spacious store serves as a one-stop shop where consumers will be able to see, touch, feel and purchase various products of Orient Electric including Fans, Lighting, Home Appliances and Switchgear.


https://www.orientelectric.com/franchise/overview

https://www.orientelectric.com/franchise/photo-gallery-list/3

https://www.orientelectric.com/media/events-&-exhibitions



Orient Electric E-shop




Strengthened e-commerce presence by selling products through Orient’s own e-commerce portal as well as through other leading online marketplaces.



http://www.orientelectriceshop.com/



Investment Rationale



Orient Paper and Industries Ltd is going to demerge its electrical appliances division to unlock significant value for the shareholders of the company. 

The vertical demerger is to facilitate both paper and consumer electric businesses to focus on their core competencies and to pursue their independent strategies.

It will enable a dedicated management to focus and accelerate the growth of the consumer electric business. 

The nature of risk and competition involved is completely distinct, so it become necessary to make separate teams of professionals to manage the two divisions.

This separation will enable the access to varied sources of funds for the rapid growth of both businesses.


http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/77f431e6-e5ac-4eb0-87e9-fb6f467fd27d.pdf


Demerger was proposed in September 2016 which is very near to completion within few months.


http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/11FECFBC_BABF_4132_BAFD_E6D5236E93C8_134008.pdf








Orient Electric has become established player in lighting, switchgear and home appliances products such as air cooler, water heater, induction cooker, mixer juicer grinder, blender and kettle under the brand name of 'Orient' in last few years. It makes the company direct competitor of Havells India,  Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical and Symphony. Demerger of Orient Electric will unlock decent value for investors if we analyse and compare these companies with Orient Electric.


Orient Electric business performance for  2016 -17 in all its product segments.

  • Orient Fan registered 11% growth in the domestic market, growing faster than the industry average 5 -6%.
  • Orient’s lighting trade business grew by 12%, higher than the industry average  growth of  5%.
  • Orient Home Appliances has registered a 35% revenues  growth against  the industry averaged growth of 5% in FY 2016-17
  • Orient Switchgears has achieved a total 19% revenue growth over last year.


Manufacturing capacity has improved with the opening of new plant at Guwahati to cover low penetrated north -east region.

Aggressive stance is being taken to open “Orient Smart Shops” in all major cities to improve customer experience with the brand. In the long run it will turn the traditional business model of the company into  asset light franchise business model.

Orient Electric is getting a good opportunity for strengthening its presence because with implementation of GST there is gradual reduction in market share of the unorganized sector, it will reflect in results of  coming quarters.

Introduce disruptive innovation in fans covering unaddressed segments, it resulted significant gain in market share of premium fans segment. Company has launched of several premium models of fans and coolers to shift the focus toward fast growing high margin business. 

Improve market share in the consumer lighting  segment and increase brand recall.

Participate aggressively in the street lighting   business.

Aggressive positioning and acquisition of market  share in air-coolers and small appliances segment


Increase e-commerce retailing and presence in  modern organised retail








Company has taken several steps in past few years to ensure the turnaround of paper division. It is mainly as a result of cost reduction and efficiency improvements.

Focus shifting towards high margin tissue paper business, Orient has 85,000 TPA of paper capacity split as  60,000 TPA of writing and printing paper and 25,000 TPA of Tissue paper. Tissue paper demand in India continues to register double digit growth with an equally strong export market. Orient is doubling its capacity in tissue plant to 55,000 TPA and reducing the production of low margin writing and printing paper to 45000 TPA.  Tissue paper expansion project have started commercial production with effect from 1st May 2017. This will double  the tissue paper capacity and further consolidate the  position as  the largest  producers and exporters of tissue papers from  India. This will also contribute to increasing volumes and profitability of the paper business in coming quarters.


http://orientpaperindia.com/beta/resources/fck_upload/EC20Tissue203dt17thOct16.pdf


Company has been able to resolve problem of power shortage by setting up a captive power plant of 55MW capacity and obtained additional coal linkage sufficient to  meet the total coal requirement.

Increased pulpwood plantation covering 2026  hectare and planned to increase by 50%. to achieve enhanced raw material security and tie up with local farmers for sourcing supply of pulpwood.

The water shortage issue has also been addressed by constructing another reservoir to increase our water storage capacity by a further 130 million gallons, which enhances our total  storage capacity to 720 million gallons to overcome this problem of water shortages.


Amlai plant has reduced the water consumption by nearly 40% and achieved zero liquid discharge


Other significant assets held by the company it will remain with Orient Paper after demerger.

  • Orient  paper  has  a  land  parcel  of 800  acres  at Brajarajnagar,  Odisha,  
  • Orient Paper & Industries Ltd  hold 1,545,140 shares of Century Textiles and Industries under public shareholding is worth  of Rs 185 crores
  • Orient Paper & Industries Ltd hold  906,360 shares of HIL under promoter shareholding is worth  of Rs 100 crores


Conclusion


'Orient' is very strong and well established brand in electrical consumer products in India.  Lighting, consumer durable segment will be the direct beneficiary of the rise in disposable income from pay hikes,  housing for all,  implementation of GST for organised players. Home appliances have a very low penetration in rural part of India with improvement in power availability, increase in disposable income and shift in focus on branded category products is giving good growth visibility for longer period. The company is continuously improving its product quality and introducing  a new lifestyle-based product range which are having very good growth potential.

The stock is trading since last 4 -5 months in range of Rs 80 - 96. It has not participated in any rally due to demerger  process pending with NCLT. Now it is in the last stage of demerger process so it is right time to enter before announcement of record date. Orient Paper & Industries at cmp 96 is giving very good investment opportunity for short term as well as for long term. It can be bought +/- 10% from cmp with allocation upto 20%.







802 comments:

  1. Dear Blog Owner. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks a lot Ma'am. Extensive effort has gone into researching this and lot of important details are provided by you.
    Can we give 20% allocation and what should be the return expected.
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can allocate upto 20%. It can give return around 100% in one year and 300% in 4 years on initial investment.

      Delete
    2. Thank you so much ! 100% in one year really good , considering that KCP , Kesoram and Pennar are still available almost at the levels of recommended price. Orient I shall definitely put 20% for one year. Wonderful analysis and investment rationales !!
      Much appreciate for intensive research !!

      Delete
    3. Guys please don't compare one stock with another..all companies recommend by mam will move sooner or later.

      Delete
  3. Madam,Thank you very much for the new recommendation.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Mam, thanks a lot for picking a great pick again..

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thank you so much ma'am for your pick , was eagerly waiting for it.
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thanks Mam for your new gem.. God bless you.. Mam what could be the target expected in short term and long term..

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi,thanks for advising another multibager. What is the return can be expected in one year and what is rerun can be expected in 4 years. Many thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Around 100% in one year and 300% in 4 years on initial investment.

      Delete
  8. Madam

    1) what's the valuation with respect to its current market cap of 2,000 crores?

    2) what's the target price?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Havells India (4.8), Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical (3.3) and Symphony (13) are having 3 -13 times market capital of annual turnover. Orient Electric turnover will be around 1400 crores for current year. so even with 2 times of annual turnover, market capital will be around 3000 crores

      It can give return around 100% in one year and 300% in 4 years on initial investment.

      Delete
    2. Maam

      How much is the paper business worth as a stand alone business?

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. Orient Paper has doubled the tissue paper production capacity recently. So exact figure we will know after Q2 results. At present annual turnover of paper business is around 500 crores

      Delete
  9. Thank you ma'm for another multibagger reco.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thank you Dolly mam for another gem which is about to demerge

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thank you mam for new stock, can you give us target for 2-3 years?

    ReplyDelete
  12. What is the demerger ratio is it 1:1

    ReplyDelete
  13. Thanks again for the wonderful recommendation with good analysis as usual.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thanks again for the wonderful recommendation with good analysis as usual.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Dear Maam

    Thanks for yet another Wonderful GEM

    Kindly share ur views on ABRL results

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thanks ma'am for your time and efforts in researching this.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Thanks maam,

    Any views on PPAP Automotive and NOCIL ? What kind of returns can we look from them in next 3 years ?

    Regards,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are good stock, you can continue to hold for further gain around 15 -20% but not advisable to buy at cmp

      Delete
  18. Thank you very much mam for your great involvement and selfless service to small investors

    ReplyDelete
  19. Thank you so much.God Bless You.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Thank you ma'am .... Ma'am I could not find consolidated results ? If you could put some light on consolidated results it will be great.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is no consolidated results because result of both paper and electric division is given together.

      http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/694f49f7-31b0-4a5f-8374-80ba65d7e4ca.pdf

      Delete
  21. Thanks You So much mam for UR new Superb Recommendations.
    GOD BLESS U.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Oooh, wonderful.definetly great value will be unlocking for investor after demerge.. looking forward to buy on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi ma'am any research on the companies debt levels and short term working capital requirements? Is the debt primarily for paper business? Making consumer business virtually debt free?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can get the complete details under Sl No -10 statement of asset and liabilities.

      http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/694f49f7-31b0-4a5f-8374-80ba65d7e4ca.pdf



      Delete
  24. Thanks mam,
    Any views on Premier Explosives, Tata Global Beverages and Texmaco Rail ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking Texmaco Rail and others are good but not advisable to buy at cmp

      Delete
  25. Dear Mam,
    At what ratio this will demerge?1:1?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, one share of Orient Electric for each share of Orient Paper and Industries

      Delete
  26. Thank you ma'am for your relentless efforts.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hello
    What will be the face value of new entity after demerger

    ReplyDelete
  28. Thanks Mam,
    Just comparing Orient to other companies in same sector and size. Is not Orient's PE and PB too high?

    Orient Paper: Mcap Rs 2000 cr, Sales Rs 1800 cr, PE 40, PB 4
    TN NewsPrint: Mcap Rs 2670 cr, Sales Rs 2400 cr, PE 10, PB 1.5
    JK Paper: Mcap Rs 1700 cr, Sales Rs 2100 cr , PE 9.6, PB 1.18
    West Coast:

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 70 % revenue of Orient Paper and Industries is coming from consumer electric business so no point to compare it with other paper companies.

      Orient Paper has doubled the tissue paper production capacity recently. So exact figure we will know after Q2 results. It is high margin segment and Orient is biggest producer and exporter of tissue paper in India. . At present annual turnover of paper business is around 500 crores

      Delete
  29. Hi Ma'm, Thank you for the new stock.

    What kind of appreciation you see from this stock 10 years down the line?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Hello Maam, thanks for an another special situation play. Given the swap ration, will the share capital of Orient Electric be the same as Orient Paper currently I.e. 21.21 cr. ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, share capital will be the same because demerger ratio is 1:1

      Delete
  31. Thanks a lot..
    Just two questions :

    1) any range of market value for the land parcel?
    2) history of how shareholder friendly this management has been?

    Thank you again..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1) It will be at least 240 crores as per circle rate 30 lakh /acre but market value may be higher.

      http://www.idco.in/2009/landrate.aspx

      2) Management is good and investor friendly ( Lot of investors and fund houses have invested in both CK Birla group listed companies Orient Paper and Orient Cement)

      Delete
    2. Management is investor friendly and want to unlock value for investors.

      Orient Cement was part of Orient Paper as well. Mgmt spun off Orient Cement and the market cap of Orient Cement is 3,200 crores. Mgmt is trying to do a similar unlocking for Electrical division as well.

      If below link doesn't work, please type Orient paper demerger in google and read livemint article


      https://www.google.co.in/amp/www.livemint.com/Companies/AAo3sENcpRxuSxLjUmhziN/Orient-Paper-to-demerge-electrical-appliances-division.html%3ffacet=amp&utm_source=googleamp&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=googleamp

      Delete
    3. http://www.livemint.com/Companies/AAo3sENcpRxuSxLjUmhziN/Orient-Paper-to-demerge-electrical-appliances-division.html

      Note (In response to your previous comment) - We are expecting around 300% return on our initial investment in 4 years. You have tried to misinterpret it in revenue growth of the company.

      It is very simple to understand that our cost per share on Orient electric will be near 50 rupees. If Orient Electric company will trade at market capital 2 times of its annual sale then its share price will be around 150 after one year. After that average 15% growth per year it can cross Rs 225 in next 3 years.

      Delete
  32. Dear Maam,

    Thanks a lot for sharing such detailed findings and the new pick Can you please throw some light on the quality of management and whether we can expect them to be shareholder friendly in the future as well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Management is good and investor friendly. Just have look on below list of investors in CK Birla group companies.


      http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/shpPublicShareholder.aspx?scripcd=535754&qtrid=94.00&QtrName=June%202017

      http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/shpPublicShareholder.aspx?scripcd=502420&qtrid=94.00&QtrName=June%202017

      Delete
  33. Thank you Madamji for your new recommendation.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Dear Madam,

    Thank you once again for your intensive research and presenting us with a wonderful investment opportunity. This makes it extra special since it is a demerger stock! May the Lord bless you and your family with good health and abundance.

    Thanks and Regards,
    D. Viswambharan

    ReplyDelete
  35. Mam
    Enough liquidity will be there or not to buy it on Monday

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, stock has enough liquidity. Demerger is in final stage and any related news may create extra buying interest.

      Delete
  36. Dear mam

    I have sizeable investment in trident and Nahar industries. Results for the next 2 quarters might be flat due to high cotton prices. Can I add few more shares at a 10 percent fall. I am looking at holding onto these shares at least for the next 3 years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can add these stocks with expected return around 10 - 15% per year.

      Delete
  37. Namaste madem please comment on abfrl first quarter results

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Results is very good , there is significant growth in top line, its profit is not reflecting in bottom line due to higher value of stock -in-trade, it will reflect in Q2.

      Delete
  38. Madam , please give your view on kiri industry to buy at current price ... thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
  39. Madam shall I allocate 35% of my portfolio to orient

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For balanced portfolio up to 20% allocation is good. If you are investment plan is for 3-4 years then you can allocate it.

      Delete
  40. Mam, namaskaram.
    Thanks for the pick.
    There was a significant fall of this stock in March 2013. Should we analyse the reasons before we make a decision? Roughly seeing the graph, stockis at similar high before the fall and does analysing those reasons necessary now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It was due to demerger of Orient Cement. During that period paper and consumer elecric division were making losses

      Delete
  41. Thanks mam for the gem you have recomended.God bless you.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Dear madam, from demerger story perspective out of Kesoram and Orient paper, which one is better. I mean which one would realize early. Have both but want to add more in one of them. Thanks for all the information.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No comparison with Kesoram, every aspect of both stocks are explained in details.

      Delete
  43. Mam OM metal from infra space. is it looking good for multibagger gains?

    ReplyDelete
  44. Dear mam

    I have some investment in fineotex chemicals at Rs.33. I am looking at adding some shares at Rs.30. My time horizon is 3-4 years. Kindly advise.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Dear Mam,

    Thank you once again for your great effort in suggesting us great stocks each and every time. May God bless you and your family with good health and abundance.

    Thanks and Regards,
    Krishna

    ReplyDelete
  46. Hello Mam,

    I have some queries:

    1) will the demerger take place before Q2 results?

    coz, I feel that at CMP of 96 the share is commanding a premium and its fair value is somewhere arnd 80. but as the result date and AGM date of 11th August nears, the prices will be increased and post that there will be a profit booking and the rates will stabilize at some value.. will that value be 96 (todays CMP) or will go below that due to bad Q2 results estimation...(as we all know that the inventory purchase by shopkeepers and production is stagnant and will only improve after sept during the festival season)

    so probably we can wait till mid sept or aug end to enter at a corrected price (which I assume wud be lesser than CMP of 96 even after it would have rallied with the Q1 news) but if a demerger news strikes before this, we will miss out the chance to enter at this rate..

    Hope my query makes sense.

    Thank You.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1) Demerger will take place after NCLT approval and it must complete before end of this year and no connection with Q2 results.

      If you think it will come down to 80 then you can wait for it.

      Delete
  47. Isn't the promoter holding a concern?

    ReplyDelete
  48. God bless you for your honest advice for worth investment

    ReplyDelete
  49. Thanks mam for your another gem which is going to demerge.

    ReplyDelete
  50. When Lasa may credit in my demat account

    ReplyDelete
  51. Madam Thanks for the new Gem, could pls advice which one can give better returns in a year Kesoram vs Orient Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No comparison with Kesoram, every aspect of both stocks are explained in details. Both can give very good return in next 4-5 years.

      If you're looking for early return around 50 -100% in year than buy Orient.

      Delete
  52. Thanks Mam for your efforts and analysis.
    At what price it is a good buy? cmp is around 96.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can be bought +/- 10% from suggested price.

      Delete
    2. Dear Ashotosh please read blog carefully bofore asking any question .. You will get anweres itself..Thanks ...

      Delete
  53. Thanks for your new recommendation.

    Stock is trading near 52 week high. Do you think it is advisable to take entry @52 high?

    ReplyDelete
  54. Hello Mam,

    Thanks for new update. Actually i want to know that many of ur stock recommendations are dircly or indirectly related birla grp.for ex. orient paper,kesoram,aditya birla fashion. so many of ur stock recommendations are related to birla gr .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only three stocks related different birla companies. Birla is one of the oldest and biggest business group in India. Most of the companies hold good assets and several restructuring are happening to realign the business with changing world.

      Delete
  55. Madam, My uncle had retired recently and getting some lump sum amount. He would like to invest some amount around 5 Lakhs (15%) in equities for 5 years. Would request your suggestion in investing in equities. He does not have any financial liabilities and responsibilities, however he would use the money for himself after 5 years as he doesn't get any pension.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 15 % allocation in equity at the age of 60 is ok. Need to invest in good fundamental stocks only.

      Delete
  56. Dollyji thanks for new reco.i had posted a mssg earlier but did not get posted.maam I have bought 500@101..what's the reason that kcp,oscl & kesoram.these cos r not at all affected by market rally.what might b the reason.regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KCP and Kesoram are suggested few months before. Just have look at other cement stocks , most of the cement stocks are trading range bound from last 2-3 months with slight decline.

      OSCL price performance can be evaluated only after listing of Lasa

      Delete
  57. Madam Thanks for new recommendation,can you highlight why adf food is continuously falling,is there anything to worry?

    ReplyDelete
  58. Hello,
    I have SKM eggs shared purchased at 104 and it's cmp is 70. Should I hold these shares or book loss?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to stick with investment decision at least for 2 -3 years

      Delete
  59. Thank you very much for this wonderful pick.
    Got it @102
    Thanks again for your selfless help.

    ReplyDelete
  60. I got it @ 100.10. Is it a good price?

    ReplyDelete
  61. Thank you madam for recommendation of good stock

    ReplyDelete
  62. Thank you for recommendation madam

    ReplyDelete
  63. Any views on Lakshmi Electrical Control Systems ?

    ReplyDelete
  64. Thank you madam for your recommendation, this stock may surge in the news of demerger ,

    ReplyDelete
  65. Madam,
    In which quarter a company will pay tax.Is it in the first quarter or All the four quarter?


    Thanx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It depend upon company, most of the profit making companies will pay in all 4 quarters

      Delete
  66. Hi mam..Plz reply if you track- your view on USD INR pair..Is USD gonna fall further..Price range for coming years..Thnx.

    ReplyDelete
  67. dhanuka agritch at 750 can be bought ? howz the company

    ReplyDelete
  68. Thanks mam for your valued tip. kindly suggest would it be better to purchase orient electric after listing/de-merger?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you want to pay 20 -40% high price then better to purchase orient electric after listing/de-merger

      Delete
  69. So Mam, after demerger Orient Electric will be the hot pie considering the growth or Orient Paper will also shine considering the business expansion of the paper tissues ? Can we expect the same kind of unlocking in both the entities like we had in TCI / TCI Express ?

    ReplyDelete
  70. Talbros auto bought at 120 is now at 201.should I book profit or wait for more upside.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Chemfab?when can we expect it to be listed.

    ReplyDelete
  72. tiil bought at 215 is now at 460.shall I wait for more upside or book profit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can book profit at any point from 100% to 500% according to your holding capacity.

      Delete
  73. Dear Madam,
    Hope all is well.. Don't mistake me.. I have this doubt to ask you.
    As per your previous Guidence we learn if stock ran more than 20% with in a month don't buy @cmp. On this way oreint stock was ran more than 20%...Its the right time to buy..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have said it from suggested price because most of the time people start chasing once stock already rallied significantly.

      You must read the specific question for that reply ( most of the comments for NOCIL, ADF, Trident, Manappuram finance )

      I have already given detail under Conclusion in this blog. You may have overlooked it from 30 March stock is trading in the range of 80 - 96 till suggestion.

      " The stock is trading since last 4 -5 months in range of Rs 80 - 96. It has not participated in any rally due to demerger process pending with NCLT. Now it is in the last stage of demerger process so it is right time to enter before announcement of record date. Orient Paper & Industries at cmp 96 is giving very good investment opportunity for short term as well as for long term. It can be bought +/- 10% from cmp with allocation upto 20%."

      Delete
    2. Thanks a lot for your prompt reply mam...

      Delete
  74. Hello Madam,

    2 years back i was interested in this stock at 27 looking at electric business and asked for your recommendation in one of the blog. At that time you said you were not tracking it. I did not buy, No regrets not buying at 27. I am happy that i was able to sense multi fold return stock so early.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, at that time there was no demerger plan and it was not clear how many years it will take to make turnaround. Paper industry make turnaround only in last year.

      Delete
  75. Hi Maam,

    I have many stocks that had multi-bagger returns till early this year but they have performed poorly YTD. Do you think moving forward any of these will have multibagger returns or mainly compounders (low or high)?

    1. Wimplast
    2. Finolex Cables
    3. Nilkamal
    4. Aegis Logistics
    5. HSIL
    6. Abbott Labs
    7. IFGL refactories

    Thanks
    SafeMB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We should not expect always multibagger return. These stocks have already given multifold return now we can expect consistent return around 20%. If you will compound 20% then it is also very good return.

      Delete
  76. Maam

    I invested 10% each in Kesoram, KCP, Pennar, and Orient. But not large enough amount for Omkar prior to Lasa spin off due to insufficient funds.

    You said to purchase Omkar around 70 and Lasa around 100 in one of your previous posts for those that haven't purchased before.

    What is the expected target for each of Omkar and Lasa in four years?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is no separate target but around 300% in 4 years on initial suggested price.

      Delete
  77. Madam,

    Please share ur views on Manglam Drugs. As at current prices, stock looks undervalued and also having clean Balance sheet(except from pledging of shares by promoters).
    Thanks in advance for your valuable suggestion.

    Regards
    Lokesh

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking it.

      Most of the blue chip stocks are trading near 52 week just have look on Divis Laboratories, Glenmark Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline, Sun Pharma.

      Still overvalued look for further correction 20 -25%

      Delete
  78. Thank you for the new recommendation.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Namaste madem, small doubt, please explain. Dtil book value is 889.41 but share price is near 300, what is the reason?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No specific reason, stock price will also move up in future.

      Delete
  80. Kindly share your view on Kalyani steel and Godrej ind...suggest good level to buy these stocks
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  81. Dear madam, Orient posted good numbers from a Net loss of Rs.4.34 crs to a Net profit of Rs.8.08 crs , excellent numbers , the decision of doubling capacity to high yield tissue paper has paid.... and in future also it will ... though electrical business showed less pace and may be unlocking will be soon in it also ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both will perform well in future. We have not taken Q1 result in consideration for our investment.

      Delete
  82. Madam, Thanks for all your help, is it better then previous stocks, as other readers have pointed out previous stocks like kcp are still available below recommending price, we can still buy them will that be better?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure, you can allocate 20% in each stock.

      Any specific reason that you unable to take the decision for KCP up till now?

      Delete
    2. I am buying kcp on every dip, sorry I am a little slow guy, the difficult decision is oriental because kcp is available below recommended price, My question is for a small investor do we need to buy oriental when previous stocks are available.

      Delete
  83. Mam,

    Lloyd electric and engineering is 195rs now

    Can we buy this for long term or should wait for more correction

    What is the best entry price in this stock

    U once said, below 200 is the best price to buy this one

    What's the reason for this fall from 356rs to 195rs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Once u said it is good to buy below 200rs when it was trading near 240rs and it is better than other air conditioner companies

      It also gave special dividend of 20rs

      Just for learning purpose,

      Why it fall down from 345rs to 196rs and why u said it is not advisable to buy as it's balance sheet looks good

      Guide me about this for learning purpose

      Delete
  84. Thank you mam for this wonderful pick... Mam are you tracking century enka.. I have 150 shares @416..its Trading At332...shall I add more?

    ReplyDelete
  85. Also ur views on shilpi cable technologies please.. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  86. Madam - Your view on precision camshaft.
    Trading below IPO price and having good order book with international clients

    ReplyDelete
  87. Mam what's ur view on balaji telefilm.....reliance has recently acquired 25per shares

    ReplyDelete
  88. Hi Madam,

    Thank you for this pick. One more excellent de-merger candidate.
    I have shared my current portfolio via email. Can you please share your thoughts and suggestions for the same?

    Regards,
    Simha.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure you can send the email, I will try reply it in next 3-4 weeks. Lot of emails unable to reply from last one month.

      Delete
  89. Hi Madam i have 500 shares of Nocil and i am getting good profit shall i keep and hold can it be mutibagger for 1 or 2 years or shall i sell and buy Orient paper which you recommend

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to stick with investment decision at least for 2 -3 years. You can continue to hold NOCIL for consistent return around 20% per year.

      Delete
  90. Mam please let us know the listing date of lasa.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still no update on listing of Lasa but most probably it will be in this month

      Delete
  91. Thank you Madam... I read in news Kesoram industries bought back Spun pipe and heavy chemicals and also Indus bank sold all of its preferential shares in Kesoram. Is it good for Kesoram stock?

    ReplyDelete
  92. Hello Dolly ji,

    Can you please provide you view on Q1 result .
    I can see paper segment is doing good but I see some downfall in electric segment.

    Thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Q1 Result is very good. Both paper and electric will perform well in future. We have not taken Q1 result in consideration for our investment.

      Delete
  93. Madam, kahi article pada tha isme ADF FOODS ke bare mein bahut achha lekha tha 5 years hold karne see 2500-4000 ka target derahe hain. Aap ka suggestion ke badh max imvest karna chahata hum. Please suggest me accordingly. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is good stock but not advisable to buy at cmp. Any stock can be bought +/-10% from suggested price.

      Delete
    2. Madam Mera pass Kutch qty hain, average karne se 180-200 ke range main aarahe hain. Yesa hoga tho tgt 2500-4000 paunch sake hain 5 years mein. Please suggest accordingly
      Thank you.

      Delete
    3. Madam Mera pass Kutch qty hain, average karne se 180-200 ke range main aarahe hain. Yesa hoga tho tgt 2500-4000 paunch sake hain 5 years mein. Please suggest accordingly
      Thank you.

      Delete
  94. Mam, are you tracking rcf? If yes plz provide your views.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Mam, you said paper sector made turn around only last year. What signals you look to decide that a turnaround has happened and how to decide when it is complete and something else is turning around.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Any views in punjab national bank ma'am...I have 800 shares at an average of 130

    ReplyDelete
  97. Mam, say for e.g. we hold some share of a company and the company issued right issue to the existing share holders. If we (existing shareholder) don't apply for that right issue, what will happen and what are the impacts to the shareholders who are not applied for the right issue?

    ReplyDelete
  98. Dear mam,

    I wanted to understand @ 96rs..how much we can value paper business and electric business?
    I mean paper business 36rs and electric 60rs?
    Or what is the actual value of both business?

    Rgds
    Rajesh

    ReplyDelete
  99. Mam, any thoughts on Hindustan Copper OFS?

    ReplyDelete
  100. Dear Maam, thanks for this recommendation. I have entered at 101. From a long term point ( 3 to 5 years) of view is it good to enter GNFC , Dhampur Sugar and Ruchira papers at current levels. Thank You

    ReplyDelete
  101. Hello Mam, I really admire the way you understand things and have hold on market.. Just few days back, in one of the responses you told Omkar may again go down to 80-90 and then bounce back.. It was at that time when Omkar raised from 75 to 115.. What trigger made u think that it will go back and bounce back.. And will it now bounce back or stay at these levels.. Pls guide..

    ReplyDelete
  102. Mam, can you please suggest that at what price can we buy the following stocks?
    AksharChem(I)
    Shreyans Inds
    Lokesh Machines
    NOCIL
    JP Associates
    Jubiliant Life

    ReplyDelete
  103. Hello Madam, Is it advisable to make a purchase of stock in multiple times as long as it is within the +/- 10% or make it in one go.
    For ex Orient paper was 101+ on Monday and today it is around 98+, what ideally should be the approach, your inputs would be greatly helpful, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Update from Lasa

    Dear Investor,


    Greetings from LASA.!!



    Thanks for writing us.



    Listing application is already submitted with respective exchanges, trading approval is awaited.

    Soon we can expect trading permission from exchanges.

    We will keep investors updated as and when we get confirmation about date.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Respected madam, most cement stocks have run up quiet a bit but no action seen in kcp and kesoram. Is any big news awaited for these stocks. Also, is there any chance of further correction in orient post dividend.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Mam i have purchase good quantity of Pennar. Kesoram. Kcp. Orient.alkali.. Even after market giving good return my portfolio is in Red... What is d reason and wht can I xpect for future

    ReplyDelete