Investment guide to new investors. Disclaimer : Investment in equities is subjected to significant risk. Need to read and follow the SEBI guidelines under 'Combined Risk Disclosure Document' before taking any decision to invest in equities. This blog contains only my personal view about market and equities. Any investment decision should be taken with your own analysis and risk.
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
Deepawali Greetings
Dear Readers,
May this Festival of Lights Bring Endless Happiness, Good Health, More Wealth, Peace , Love, Fame and Prosperity To You and Your Family
Wish you and every blog member and their family a very happy Diwali and prosperous Diwali.
I wish that this year and in all future years, our county prosper. Poverty, malnutrition, decreases.honesty get rewarded, Our soldiers, our heros do not lose lives due to terrorism India see a strong and good government at centre and become a world super power I pray to god, to make my country a "sone ki chidya" again.
Thank you so much for suggesting very good stocks...Wishing you and your family a very happy and prosperous Diwali Mam...Wishing a very happy and prosperous Diwali to all our blog members...
Many happy and prosperous Diwali to you and all blog readers... because of you..I could gather the courage to invest my hard earned money in stock market.. Many thanks
Thank you Dolly Khanna ji for the Deepvali Greetings! May this festival of lights bring in lots of Joy, happiness, health and wealth for you, your family and all the members of this group.
It is only the absence of light that is called Darkness. Obliteration of Darkness is the nature of light. May the light arise in your life to light you up and all that you touch on this festival of lights.
A Dazzling Diwali to you and your loved ones.💕
As you said,, alcohol stocks should be bought in Q2 and sold in Q4 as their price movement is same every year, should I buy Som distillery at cmp ,, your suggestions would be very helpful,, Thanks💕
"SEASONS GREETINGS" TO DOLLY MAM TO BLOG MEMBERS AND ENTIRE FAMILY OF DOLLY MAM AND BLOG MEMBERS ,A SAFE PROSPEROUS AND HEALTH JOURNEY AHEAD IN LIFE... KEEP SMILING AND ENJOY THE JOURNEY.
SPTL and Kesoram are almost continuously under pressure . May I request your detailed valued assessment which may include reasons for the fall(apart from the across the board fall in small/mid cap) , management, governance, debt, pledged shares,future growth,profitability,challenges and any issue which wud reinforce our belief in these 2 stocks.
There is no change in previous view for both stock but if any stock is not performing up to the mark then in such condition, need to follow the investment strategy.
Can you please share your time frame for Pennar industries merger and future of this company ..holding 5500 shares at Rs 48 ...I'm a long term investor
Madam, What is your view on Nandan Denim Q2 results? I am holding 4% for the last 3 yrs @ average cost around 120. Can we expect better share price in the future to exit?
Result is good and it is expected to improve further in coming quarters. Even though net profit came down due to higher raw material cost but it is in line with industry expectation
Madam ji, I have 12% each of Kesoram and SPTL in my portfolio. I have no problem in holding these stocks . Just wanted your view if I wud be correct in holding these two rather than switching over to other stocks recommended by you and within yr price recommendation
No change in previous view for these stocks. It was good if you have followed the investment strategy. Now you can continue to hold as it is for at least three years.
Madam..To correct my thinking, selling at 30% loss as per investment strategy vs buying the same stock since it’s trading low, Don’t you think both are contradictory views. Or we should interpret as since it’s below 30% who can feel fear can sell and one who can see opportunity can buy since the fundamentals are intact.
i bought Pushkar based on your recommendation, whereas i missed it to sell when it went to 52 week high. as you used say either we will make money or it will teach us good lesson.
in my case iam experiencing now, my wait is now more prolonged, am i making a right decision to hold on to it till i get 100% i have bought it within 10% limit. , management is good, expansion is kicking in whereas not able to see the jump in results what market is expecting, may be some day it will post the result with market expectation. please guide mam
In present situation most of the stocks have corrected very severely and trading at very low price so you have to maintain the confidence and keep the stocks as it is. It will recover very quickly and give you very good return in coming quarters
Most of the blog suggested stocks are also trading 10 to 30% above from their low. You may have invested in some exceptions like Sintex plastic, Ganesh Housing , TPL and GP petro which are still at lowest. The sectors are affected most in recent market correction , rise in crude oil price has added further pressure
Dear Madam, Rain @150 / Motherson Sumi @150 / Ashok Leyland@106 / Yes bank @190. Pls do suggest whether we can add at these price points. Wr Gajendrakumar
Sir, Ma'am, when did you first discover/ invest in Rain Ind...was it calendar year 2016 or 2017? It was pretty flat till Dec 2016...and then took off after that. Thanks
Dear Sir, Ma'm, In the case of Ganesh Housing (or for that matter most Realty companies), if we do a simple analysis of their Liquidation Value (assuming they shut shop or cant sell apartments and have to sell their land)... then just Value of [Land + Inventory - Debt] itself might be greater than their current Market Cap.
For example in Ganesh Housing
1. LAND/ PROPERTY As per Annual report it shows value as Rs 200 cr
But 600 acres (26 mill sqft) in Ahmedabad Gondhovi area at current Rs 700/ sqft = Rs 1810 crores
I guess they show at cost of acquisition, not current value ?
2. INVENTORY as per Annual Report = Rs 510 cr
3. DEBT (long and short term) = about Rs 560 cr
So even if we do 1 + 2 - 3 = 1800 cr + 510 cr - 560 cr = 1750 cr
And Market Cap this year has been between 300-550 cr
So at some point this has to catch up with Intrinsic value of at least Rs 1750 cr (land value) or even more if it all gets developed? Is this right ?
Chharodi tragad - 71.50 acres with developable land of 10.5 m sft with 800 flats capacity and godhavi- 540.07 acres land having developable area - 29.35 m sft- 2250 flats Other than this co also completed purchase of 10.09 acres of land for township. Altogether assets are more than 2000+ may be 2300 crores also But i see problem with sales and high interest rates..which also i can understand that co wants to reduce debt to below half. But markets and sales are growing in a rapid pace in western and southern region like Maharashtra and karnataka - may be sue to IT sector new people shifting and buying new houses. I may be wrong but its my observation. Also a small observations what i learnt from this correction- any co may be having good valuable assets will be most effected if debt is high. Reacent examples like - sintex, ganesh housing, kesoram, any co. And they dont bounce back sharply !
Hi Vineeth, thanks. The point I was making (and wanted clarification) is even if apartments are not built/ sold due to slowness in market, the 600 acres land value itself could be worth Rs 1700 cr...which is above Ganesh Housing mcap.
I already understood your point..what i want to explain my experience is- only having assets is not of too much use..it will not help in increasing stock price. It will only increase if any co does good volume business with good ebita margins and pat with consistent growth with negligible debt then only stock price will rise. In nse we can find atleast 100 + co with very heavy assets but if they are not monetized. In realestate there are many co with only 5% to 10% net debt on market cap ..
hi maam, i have purchasd TPL PLASTECH @180 only 7 % of my portfolio,would you recommend me to add more on futhur correction to increase it to 15% .pls advice. thankyou maam.
Q2 result for all these companies are very good and it is expected to improve further in coming quarters, you can continue to hold all the stocks for further gain in long term.
Madamji, can we buy SPTL at this price? I mean after this stupendous fall, do we still have a case for buying it ?Do the reasons for recommending this stock earlierbstill exist ?
Madamji, can we buy SPTL at this price? I mean after this stupendous fall, do we still have a case for buying it ?Do the reasons for recommending this stock earlier still exist ?
We should not invest on news for short term gain because sometime it will take more than expected time , you continue to hold as it is and invest at least for 3 -4 years
Still no official announcement but definitely management is working hard to revive this company with various option like hiving off tire division or merging cement division with Ultratech
Still no official announcement but definitely management is working hard to revive this company with various option like hiving off tire division or merging cement division with Ultratech
Sorry not tracking it but most of the transport and logistics stocks are trading at multi year low and provide a good opportunity for long term investment
Namaste mam, Question on Bharat Gears. It has been making gears since a few decades yet it's turnover is 500 crores now. This is probably due to the market size opportunity for gears.
Do you expect company to grow at a very slow pace similar to its past? or you expect government initiatives for agriculture, and infrastructure spend to significantly increase Bharat Gears revenue? If so, how big can it grow?
It appears that the company have become more efficient, and so, its expenses have reduced, so, its earnings are going to improve.
So, is the investment thesis more of a earnings improvement story due to efficiency gains?
Do you expect revenue growth to play any large role for the company?
Sorry madam, below is a part of the moneylife article.... Overall, the company has grown its profits at a good pace in the past; but that was all on the back of cost optimisation. One does not want to bet on a business that thrives on cost efficiencies alone rather than on growth. There is only a limited scope of growth due to cost efficiencies; ultimately, growth has to come from increasing revenues.
For ADF, it is not clear where this growth will come from. In FY14-15, it added a new manufacturing facility for manufacturing core products,viz., pickles and pastes, but that didn’t result in any growth. Hence, the company’s returns metrics are also poor; RoE (return on equity) was just 10% in FY17-18. Also, the promoter’s stake has reduced sharply in the recent quarters.
ADF, probably, has a growth opportunity in the domestic market; but competition is intense. There are scores of national and regional brands in chutneys, pickles and pastes. The company, currently, has a market-capitalisation of Rs500 crore and is trading at Rs240; which translates to a P/E (price–to-earning) ratio of 22, based on trailing 12 months’ earnings. For a company that is not growing, the valuation is expensive.
Even though company has started in 1930 but it has adopted the modern approach only in last one decade, it is the only company which has established its brand name in its pickles, chutneys and pastes segment across various countries in the world. in fact in this segment it is very time taking to establish itself as reputed brand. Actually few years back trend of ready to eat food has started in India and company has stepped in at right time so there is huge growth possibilities in food processing segment.
Anyway it has already given hundred percent return and free of cost share still trading above initial investment price. Need to hold for 3 to 4 years and then take the decision as per our investment strategy
Yes you can continue to hold it for another 2 -3 years and once more book some profit at new peak.In the current market situation need to hold all stocks as it is and let the market condition improve in next 4-5 months then only take the decision to book profit in any stock
Maam, only for purpose of learning can you explain why a company like HDIL with a book value of rs 266,eps of rs 2.34 ,divident paying still trading at around 21rs,tading at around 9 Pe.would really appreciate if you could help us learn stock picking techinques.thankyou maam.
Happy Deepavali mam
ReplyDeleteVery very happy Diwali to you and all your family mam....
ReplyDeleteWishing you happy and prosperous deepawali
ReplyDeleteWish you and every blog member and their family a very happy Diwali and prosperous Diwali.
ReplyDeleteI wish that this year and in all future years, our county prosper. Poverty, malnutrition, decreases.honesty get rewarded, Our soldiers, our heros do not lose lives due to terrorism
India see a strong and good government at centre and become a world super power
I pray to god, to make my country a "sone ki chidya" again.
Regards
Ajay
Dear Ma'm, Wish you and family a very happy Diwali!
ReplyDeleteHappy diwali to khanna ji & family and to all the blog members !
ReplyDeleteYour views on kopran ltd ?
Thanks a lot for every thing..!
Sorry not tracking kopran
DeleteWish you and your family a very Happy & Prosperous Diwali Ma'am
ReplyDeleteHappy Deepavali Mam.. Wishing you healthy and happy life ahead!!
ReplyDeleteDear Mam,
ReplyDeleteThank you so much for suggesting very good stocks...Wishing you and your family a very happy and prosperous Diwali Mam...Wishing a very happy and prosperous Diwali to all our blog members...
Happy Diwali ma'am ...
ReplyDeleteHappy Diwali mam to you and your family.
ReplyDeleteDear Maam
ReplyDeleteHAPPY DIWALI TO YOU ,FAMILY AND ALL BLOG READERS
Happy diwali to you n your family.
ReplyDeleteWish you a very happy, healthy and prosperous Diwali.
ReplyDeleteWishing Dolly Mam & all blog members a very Happy Diwali.
ReplyDeleteNews/Update on Pennar Merger,
ReplyDeletehttps://www.deccanchronicle.com/business/companies/291018/pebs-merger-with-pennar-is-set-to-conclude-shortly.html
Dear maam, happy Diwali to you and your family. May God bless you and fulfill all your wishes.
ReplyDeleteHappi Deepawli to you and your family mam.
ReplyDeleteWishing you & your family& blog followers a happy prosperous diwali.Hope to see our blog recommended stocks give us all decent returns by next diwali.
ReplyDeleteMany happy and prosperous Diwali to you and all blog readers... because of you..I could gather the courage to invest my hard earned money in stock market.. Many thanks
ReplyDeleteMam
ReplyDeleteWishing you happy and prosperous Diwali
Venkatesh
Wish you Happy and Prosperous Diwali Mam & Rajiv Sir !
ReplyDeleteGod bless you with good health and lots of happiness.
Thank you Dolly Khanna ji for the Deepvali Greetings! May this festival of lights bring in lots of Joy, happiness, health and wealth for you, your family and all the members of this group.
ReplyDeleteIt is only the absence
ReplyDeleteof light that is called
Darkness. Obliteration
of Darkness is the nature
of light. May the light
arise in your life to
light you up and all
that you touch on this
festival of lights.
A Dazzling Diwali
to you and your loved ones.💕
As you said,, alcohol stocks should be bought in Q2 and sold in Q4 as their price movement is same every year, should I buy Som distillery at cmp ,, your suggestions would be very helpful,, Thanks💕
Dear Ma'am,
ReplyDeleteWish you and blog readers a very Happy Diwali.
Regards,
Sushil
Wish you and your family a very happy, healthy and prosperous Diwali.
ReplyDeleteGreetings and Best wishes for dazzling Diwali. Madam ji thank you for wonderful wishes.
ReplyDeleteDear Mam and Blog members
ReplyDeleteWish you and your family a happy and prosperous Diwali!
God bless you with good health and happiness.
we all love you dolly ma'am... happy diwali to you and your family
ReplyDeleteWishing you and your family a very Healthy, wealthy and prosperous life
ReplyDeleteKindly guide us regarding SPTL, is it worth adding more
Yes you can buy Sintex plastic for long-term investment at CMP
DeleteMam, Happy and prosperous diwali to you and all the blog members.
ReplyDeleteHappy Diwali to madam and all the big members
ReplyDeleteWishing you and your family a very happy and prosperous Diwali
ReplyDeleteWishing a Very Happy and Prosperous Deepawali to all the group members 🙏
ReplyDeleteDear Ma'am,
ReplyDeleteWishing you and family a very happy,healthy and prosperous Diwali.
Best Regards,
Ravi
!!! Wish you & your family a Happy Deepavali !!!
ReplyDeleteHappy Diwali teacher
ReplyDeleteWish u happy deepavali...Madam..
ReplyDeleteMay god give you..health , wealth & prosperity..
Wish u happy deepavali...Madam..
ReplyDeleteMay god give you..health , wealth & prosperity..
Wish u happy deepavali...Madam..
ReplyDeleteMay god give you..health , wealth & prosperity..
May this Diwali bring in u the most brightest and choicest happiness and love you have ever Wished for.
ReplyDeleteHappy diwali wishes to madam and all the members
ReplyDeleteHappy Diwali mam
ReplyDeleteDear madam & all,
ReplyDeleteWish you and your family Sparkling, prosperous & happy Diwali!
Happy Diwali dear Dolly madam.Wishing you and your family a very Healthy, wealthy and prosperous life.May god bless you.
ReplyDeleteRespective Madam and all blog members, Wishing you a very Happy Diwali.
ReplyDeleteHappy dewali to you madam
ReplyDeleteHappy Diwali to everyone
ReplyDeleteWishing dolly mam and all blog readers a very happy diwali.
ReplyDeleteSame here !!!
DeleteHappy Diwali mam😀
ReplyDeleteWish you and your family a very happy, healthy and prosperous Diwali.
ReplyDeleteWishing all a happy prosperous diwali
ReplyDeleteWishing Dolly Mam and her Family and all the blog members a very Happy and Blissful Diwali
ReplyDeleteHi Ma'am
ReplyDeleteWishing you and your family a very happy Deepavali.
A query about Kesoram - There seems to be promoter pledge of shares in the recent months. Can you please share your comments on this ?
Dear Madam,
ReplyDeleteWishing you and your family a very Happy Diwali Wishes. May god bless you with all success and happiness.
Happy and prosperous deepavali wishes to u and ur family madam
ReplyDeleteHAPPY DIWALI TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. MAY GOD LAXMI AND GANESH BLESS YOU WITH LOT OF HAPPINESS AND PROSPERITY.
ReplyDeleteWishing a happy & healthy Diwali to you and your family Mam..
ReplyDeleteHappy Diwali to you mam and your family, thank you for being our light of hope.
ReplyDeleteGreetings Madam,
ReplyDeleteWishing you and your family a very happy and prosperous Diwali.
Regards,
Ram.
Happy New Year Mam to you and your family...
ReplyDeleteWish you happy Diwali
ReplyDeleteThank you, Happy Diwali to too dolly mom,God bless u with lot of health.
ReplyDelete"SEASONS GREETINGS" TO DOLLY MAM TO BLOG MEMBERS AND ENTIRE FAMILY OF DOLLY MAM AND BLOG MEMBERS ,A SAFE PROSPEROUS AND HEALTH JOURNEY AHEAD IN LIFE... KEEP SMILING AND ENJOY THE JOURNEY.
ReplyDeleteSPTL and Kesoram are almost continuously under pressure . May I request your detailed valued assessment which may include reasons for the fall(apart from the across the board fall in small/mid cap) , management, governance, debt, pledged shares,future growth,profitability,challenges and any issue which wud reinforce our belief in these 2 stocks.
ReplyDeleteThere is no change in previous view for both stock but if any stock is not performing up to the mark then in such condition, need to follow the investment strategy.
Deletehttps://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2018/05/review-of-investment-strategy.html?m=1
Wish Every One Happy and Prosperous Diwali. Hope this new year brings us Health, Wealth and Prosperity.
ReplyDeleteHello Ma'am
ReplyDeleteHappy Diwali to you and your family.
At what price can one enter Som Distilleries, Associated Alcohol and AB Capital.
Thanks.
You can buy these stocks near 52 week low in case of further correction for long-term investment
DeleteMadamji, I wish you, your family and all your blog readers a very Happy and Blessed Deepawali.
ReplyDeleteDear Sir and Madam , Wishing you a Happy Deepawali and Bhai Duj . May Goddess Laxmi bestows you all with her blessings and wealth!
ReplyDeleteWishing all members a Happy Diwali too.
Happy Diwali to you and all your loved ones.
ReplyDeleteMam your views on triveni engineering?can it be added for long term investment at cmp?
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking it
DeleteDear Maam,
ReplyDeleteKindly give your inputs on TPL Results. The topline has grown but bottom line has become half compared to last year.
How would you interpret the result.?
Result is good and we expect that sales will continue to grow further in coming quarters
DeleteMam,
ReplyDeleteKindly suggest between Jamna Auto and Munjal Auto, which is good to buy at this level? What is your view on J K Paper?
Apparently i have the same question mam.
DeleteSorry not tracking these stocks
DeleteCan you please share your time frame for Pennar industries merger and future of this company ..holding 5500 shares at Rs 48 ...I'm a long term investor
ReplyDeleteIt will take around six months to complete the process of merger. Future outlook is good
DeletePlease share your opinion on Navkar corporation ?? Sitting on huge loss ..should I average at Rs 60 ??
ReplyDeleteMost of the transport and logistics stocks are corrected severely and Navkar is no exception, you can continue to hold as it is for long-term
DeleteMadam, What is your view on Nandan Denim Q2 results? I am holding 4% for the last 3 yrs @ average cost around 120. Can we expect better share price in the future to exit?
ReplyDeleteDefinitely stock price will go up in the long run. Most of the textile stocks are trading near 52 week low and NDL is no exception
DeleteMadam,
ReplyDeleteWhats your opinion on the results of TPL Plastec and KCP?
Result is good and it is expected to improve further in coming quarters. Even though net profit came down due to higher raw material cost but it is in line with industry expectation
DeleteMam how u read the results of KCP?
ReplyDeleteDear Mam - Hope you had Good time with Family.Many Thanks for all the help to small investors.God bless you
ReplyDeleteHi mam: how do you see results of kesoram?
ReplyDeleteDear mam can we continue holding Shree Pushkar....result not up to the mark....what is the future prospect for this stock.
ReplyDelete
DeleteResult and future prospects of this company is good, you can continue to hold it for long term
Hello mam. Could you please advise if one should buy Arvind at these levels. Is there a chance of value unlocking due to demerger?
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking it
DeleteThirumalai chemical Ltd puchapur kar sakta hu kya @ 130
ReplyDeleteYou can buy it on further correction near hundred
DeleteHello mam! Your views on results of rain ind and asian tiles
ReplyDeleteResult is good and it is expected to improve further in coming quarters you can continue to hold as it is
DeleteMadam
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view on Kesoram and Dhunseri Tea Results
Result is good and no change in previous view.
DeleteMadam ji, I have 12% each of Kesoram and SPTL in my portfolio. I have no problem in holding these stocks . Just wanted your view if I wud be correct in holding these two rather than switching over to other stocks recommended by you and within yr price recommendation
ReplyDeleteNo change in previous view for these stocks. It was good if you have followed the investment strategy. Now you can continue to hold as it is for at least three years.
Deletehttps://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2018/05/review-of-investment-strategy.html?m=1
Madam..To correct my thinking, selling at 30% loss as per investment strategy vs buying the same stock since it’s trading low, Don’t you think both are contradictory views. Or we should interpret as since it’s below 30% who can feel fear can sell and one who can see opportunity can buy since the fundamentals are intact.
DeleteHello mam, how do you view Ganesh Housing Q2 Results?
ReplyDeleteMam ur views on Ganesh housing results please
ReplyDeleteHello mam how do u read ganesh housing result?
ReplyDeleteResult of Ganesh Housing is good and it is in line with industry
DeleteMam,
ReplyDeleteCan we buy Asian granito and Visaka at cmp ?
Thanks
You can start buying these stocks on further correction 10 to 15% in small quantities for long term investment
DeleteHello Mam,
ReplyDeletei bought Pushkar based on your recommendation, whereas i missed it to sell when it went to 52 week high. as you used say either we will make money or it will teach us good lesson.
in my case iam experiencing now, my wait is now more prolonged, am i making a right decision to hold on to it till i get 100% i have bought it within 10% limit. , management is good, expansion is kicking in whereas not able to see the jump in results what market is expecting, may be some day it will post the result with market expectation. please guide mam
In present situation most of the stocks have corrected very severely and trading at very low price so you have to maintain the confidence and keep the stocks as it is. It will recover very quickly and give you very good return in coming quarters
DeleteThanks Mam, will wait.
DeleteHi Mam,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for your service and continuous support!
Could you please propose few stocks(other than STPL and TPL Plastec) which are near 52 weeks low, but with good fundamental ?
You can invest in other 2018 stocks Nitin spinner, Ganesh housing, GP petro and Bharat gear.
DeleteDeepak nitrate also can be bought on further correction
Thank you Mam!!
DeleteDear Maam, IT Department has raided Deepak Nitrite Offices.
ReplyDeleteWould this adversely affect the share?
Search/raid is part of IT department duty so there is no impact if company has not done anything wrong.
DeleteMadam , I am holding Meghmani Org @ 86. Should I buy at these level.Pl input ur valuable suggestion.
ReplyDeleteIt is not advisable to buy at CMP you can add more in case of further correction below 25
Deletedo you mean when the share price is below 25?
DeleteMadam some other shares recovered from lows. Our blog suggest stocks still not started to recover.
ReplyDeleteMost of the blog suggested stocks are also trading 10 to 30% above from their low. You may have invested in some exceptions like Sintex plastic, Ganesh Housing , TPL and GP petro which are still at lowest. The sectors are affected most in recent market correction , rise in crude oil price has added further pressure
DeleteMadam, how do we subscribe Bharat gears rights and how do we get to know the dates to subscribe?
ReplyDeleteCompany will give update on stock exchanges and you will get enough time to subscribe in right issue.
DeleteDear Madam, Rain @150 / Motherson Sumi @150 / Ashok Leyland@106 / Yes bank @190.
ReplyDeletePls do suggest whether we can add at these price points.
Wr
Gajendrakumar
You can start adding the Rain industry in small quantities on every 3-4% correction.
DeleteNot tracking other stocks
Hello Ma'am, can we add Rain Industries at CMP of around 150 ?
ReplyDeleteYes you can start adding it in small quantities on every correction
DeleteSir, Ma'am, when did you first discover/ invest in Rain Ind...was it calendar year 2016 or 2017? It was pretty flat till Dec 2016...and then took off after that. Thanks
ReplyDeleteInvested in 2017 around 100.
DeleteHello maam can we add Ashok leyland at camp. How good is company for long term 3 years and above
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking it
DeleteDear Sir, Ma'm,
ReplyDeleteIn the case of Ganesh Housing (or for that matter most Realty companies), if we do a simple analysis of their Liquidation Value (assuming they shut shop or cant sell apartments and have to sell their land)... then just Value of [Land + Inventory - Debt] itself might be greater than their current Market Cap.
For example in Ganesh Housing
1. LAND/ PROPERTY
As per Annual report it shows value as Rs 200 cr
But 600 acres (26 mill sqft) in Ahmedabad Gondhovi area at current Rs 700/ sqft = Rs 1810 crores
I guess they show at cost of acquisition, not current value ?
2. INVENTORY as per Annual Report = Rs 510 cr
3. DEBT (long and short term) = about Rs 560 cr
So even if we do 1 + 2 - 3
= 1800 cr + 510 cr - 560 cr
= 1750 cr
And Market Cap this year has been between 300-550 cr
So at some point this has to catch up with Intrinsic value of at least Rs 1750 cr (land value) or even more if it all gets developed? Is this right ?
Thanks,
Krish
Yes company is having valuable assets at the prime locations in the city and asset value will continuesly keep on increasing with the time.
DeleteChharodi tragad - 71.50 acres with developable land of 10.5 m sft with 800 flats capacity and godhavi- 540.07 acres land having developable area - 29.35 m sft- 2250 flats
DeleteOther than this co also completed purchase of 10.09 acres of land for township.
Altogether assets are more than 2000+ may be 2300 crores also
But i see problem with sales and high interest rates..which also i can understand that co wants to reduce debt to below half. But markets and sales are growing in a rapid pace in western and southern region like Maharashtra and karnataka - may be sue to IT sector new people shifting and buying new houses. I may be wrong but its my observation.
Also a small observations what i learnt from this correction- any co may be having good valuable assets will be most effected if debt is high.
Reacent examples like - sintex, ganesh housing, kesoram, any co. And they dont bounce back sharply !
Hi Vineeth, thanks. The point I was making (and wanted clarification) is even if apartments are not built/ sold due to slowness in market, the 600 acres land value itself could be worth Rs 1700 cr...which is above Ganesh Housing mcap.
DeleteI already understood your point..what i want to explain my experience is- only having assets is not of too much use..it will not help in increasing stock price. It will only increase if any co does good volume business with good ebita margins and pat with consistent growth with negligible debt then only stock price will rise. In nse we can find atleast 100 + co with very heavy assets but if they are not monetized. In realestate there are many co with only 5% to 10% net debt on market cap ..
DeleteMam your views on GM breweries and man industry
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking these stocks
Deletehi maam, i have purchasd TPL PLASTECH @180 only 7 % of my portfolio,would you recommend me to add more on futhur correction to increase it to 15% .pls advice. thankyou maam.
ReplyDeleteYes you can add more in small quantities on further every connection with the allocation 10 to 20%
DeleteDear Mam, Please comment on ABFRL, KAMDHENU & TALBROS results.
ReplyDeleteQ2 result for all these companies are very good and it is expected to improve further in coming quarters, you can continue to hold all the stocks for further gain in long term.
DeleteNot tracking Prozone Intu.
Hello madam, TPL Plastic has had a great fall from its highs. Likewise SPTL has also fallen. Wud it be beneficial to switch from SPTL to TPL Plastic ?
ReplyDeleteNeed to stick with investment decision and continue to hold the stocks at least for three years
DeleteRespected dolly madam
ReplyDeleteShould I buy CL educate at current prices ?
Sorry not tracking it
DeleteMam,
ReplyDeleteI have invested in blog suggested stocks with in suggested price.
Bharat Gears@195 - 12% allocation
Ganesh Housing@137 - 12%
Deepak Nitride@229 - 14%
Gati@108 - 12%
Kesoram@126 - 7%
Aditya Birla fashion and retail@145 - 11%
Nitin Spinners@102 - 11%
Sintex Plastics@51 - 11%
Tpl Plastech@315 - 11%
I am few funds now, please suggest for which stocks i can increase allocation in current situations.
Thanks a lot for your support.
You can increase the allocation in 2018 stocks like Nitin spinner, Sintex plastic, TPL and Ganesh Housing
DeleteHAI MAM.INCOME TAX RAID ON DEEPAK NITRITE.ANY VIEW ON THIS
ReplyDeleteIt is good for the company as well as for investors
DeleteThanks mam
DeleteMadam are you tracking The Investment Trust of India
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking it
DeleteDear Sir/ Ma'm - one clarification on amazing stock TPL Plastech you have given us. Great buying price now at Rs. 170.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Debt of Rs 50+cr? I guess next 2 yrs there is minimal capex...and PAT (maybe 15cr and 18 cr next 2 yrs) will pay most of 50 cr debt?
Thanks,
Krish
most of the debt is short term and used as working capital
DeleteThanks mam for your guidance. Can we buy Nilkamal or is the blog suggested ones are better ?
ReplyDeleteYou can also buy Nilkamal in case of further correction 40 -50% from cmp
DeleteMadamji, can we buy SPTL at this price?
ReplyDeleteI mean after this stupendous fall, do we still have a case for buying it ?Do the reasons for recommending this stock earlierbstill exist ?
Yes you can still buy it if you are able to hold for next 4 year without second thought otherwise 30% stoploss is better option.
Deletehttps://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2018/05/review-of-investment-strategy.html?m=1
Madamji, can we buy SPTL at this price?
ReplyDeleteI mean after this stupendous fall, do we still have a case for buying it ?Do the reasons for recommending this stock earlier still exist ?
At Rs 1500 cr market-cap company will have 300-400 cr free cash flow / yr. Looks like undervalued...
DeleteIt is very common perception that during deep correction every stock looks overvalued and during peak it looks undervalued.
DeleteHi Maam
ReplyDeleteI have bought talbros auto at 300. Can I hold or should I exit. Also, can we average at current price?
Always need to stick with investment decision at least for 2-3 years. You can also add more in case of further correction near 130.
DeleteCurrent price is 220
DeleteU foresee it going till 130?
Mam,how much downside do expect in sptl?
ReplyDeleteFV is only 1 , we expect that it will maintain the face value
DeleteWhat does that mean mam?
DeleteIt means that nobody can predict the market or downfall of any stock and we expect that it will not fall below its one rupees face value
DeleteSINTEX PLASTICS:
ReplyDeleteRecommend on Blog at Rs 62
Expected 300% or so upside = Rs 180+
Current price = Rs. 23 is 8X return
Looks like terrific price for company at Rs 1500 cr market-cap that will put of Rs 300-400 cr free cash flow (as all capex is over last 2 yrs)
SPTL Recommended Price: 62
DeleteSPTL @ 100% = 124 (62 X 2)
SPTL @ 200% = 186 (62 X 3)
SPTL @ 300% = 248 (62 X 4)
Current price = Rs. 23 is 10X return @ 300%.
Hello Mama
ReplyDeleteHope all well at your end.
Is there any news about Kesoram Merging with Aditya Birla Group. Kindly advise if we should accumulate more at present CMP.
Regards
Sunil Paulose
We should not invest on news for short term gain because sometime it will take more than expected time , you continue to hold as it is and invest at least for 3 -4 years
DeleteMam
ReplyDeleteAny good news with kesoram..
Still no official announcement but definitely management is working hard to revive this company with various option like hiving off tire division or merging cement division with Ultratech
DeleteMam any news for gati?big buying is there.
ReplyDeleteNo other news except previous update given by management
Deletekesoram ind incresed 28% in 2 days , any news?
ReplyDeleteStill no official announcement but definitely management is working hard to revive this company with various option like hiving off tire division or merging cement division with Ultratech
DeleteMadam,
ReplyDeleteYour views about buying Navkar corporation @ CMP ?
Sorry not tracking it but most of the transport and logistics stocks are trading at multi year low and provide a good opportunity for long term investment
DeleteThank you in advance madam,
ReplyDeleteJust read this article on adf foods..
https://www.moneylife.in/article/adf-foods-in-a-pickle/55788.html
Is there any negatives on adf foods as mentioned in the article? Just wanted assurance from you that all is well.
Article cannot be read fully without subscribing the Money Life
Deleteਸਤਿ ਗੁਰ ਨਾਨਕ ਪ੍ਰਗਟਿਅਾ
ReplyDeleteਮਿਟੀ ਧੁੰਦ ਜਗ ਚਾਨਣ ਹੋਅਾ
ਜਿੳੁ ਕਰ ਸੂਰਜ ਨਿਕਲਿਅਾ
ਤਾਰੇ ਛੁਪੈ ਅੰਧੇਰ ਪਲੋਅਾ
ਧੰਨ ਧੰਨ ਸਾਹਿਬ ਸ੍ਰੀ ਗੁਰੂ ਨਾਨਕ ਦੇਵ ਜੀ ਦੇ ਪ੍ਰਕਾਸ਼ ਪੁਰਬ ਦੀਅਾਂ ਆਪ ਤੇ ਆਪ ਦੇ ਸਾਰੇ ਪਰਿਵਾਰ ਨੂੰ ਲੱਖ ਲੱਖ ਵਧਾਈਆਂ!
On this auspicious occasion of the birthday of
Guru Nanak Dev Ji,
I wish to convey you all my heartiest congratulations..!!
Happy GURUPURAB...!!
Wishing very happy Gurpurab to you and your family
Delete🙏
DeleteNamaste mam,ruchira paper promoters bought shares thru preferential offer.is it good for retail investor?
ReplyDeletePreferential issue above the market price is always positive for retail investors
DeleteNamaste mam, Question on Bharat Gears. It has been making gears since a few decades yet it's turnover is 500 crores now. This is probably due to the market size opportunity for gears.
ReplyDeleteDo you expect company to grow at a very slow pace similar to its past? or you expect government initiatives for agriculture, and infrastructure spend to significantly increase Bharat Gears revenue? If so, how big can it grow?
It appears that the company have become more efficient, and so, its expenses have reduced, so, its earnings are going to improve.
So, is the investment thesis more of a earnings improvement story due to efficiency gains?
Do you expect revenue growth to play any large role for the company?
We expect that it will grow around hundred percent in next 5 years and it is enough to achieve our target of 100 to 300% return in 3 -4 years.
DeleteYes revenue growth will play major role for the company because with hundred percent growth in revenue may increase its EPS manifold.
Sorry madam, below is a part of the moneylife article....
ReplyDeleteOverall, the company has grown its profits at a good pace in the past; but that was all on the back of cost optimisation. One does not want to bet on a business that thrives on cost efficiencies alone rather than on growth. There is only a limited scope of growth due to cost efficiencies; ultimately, growth has to come from increasing revenues.
For ADF, it is not clear where this growth will come from. In FY14-15, it added a new manufacturing facility for manufacturing core products,viz., pickles and pastes, but that didn’t result in any growth. Hence, the company’s returns metrics are also poor; RoE (return on equity) was just 10% in FY17-18. Also, the promoter’s stake has reduced sharply in the recent quarters.
ADF, probably, has a growth opportunity in the domestic market; but competition is intense. There are scores of national and regional brands in chutneys, pickles and pastes. The company, currently, has a market-capitalisation of Rs500 crore and is trading at Rs240; which translates to a P/E (price–to-earning) ratio of 22, based on trailing 12 months’ earnings. For a company that is not growing, the valuation is expensive.
My doubt was based on above portion of article...
Even though company has started in 1930 but it has adopted the modern approach only in last one decade, it is the only company which has established its brand name in its pickles, chutneys and pastes segment across various countries in the world. in fact in this segment it is very time taking to establish itself as reputed brand. Actually few years back trend of ready to eat food has started in India and company has stepped in at right time so there is huge growth possibilities in food processing segment.
DeleteAnyway it has already given hundred percent return and free of cost share still trading above initial investment price. Need to hold for 3 to 4 years and then take the decision as per our investment strategy
https://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2018/05/review-of-investment-strategy.html?m=1
Hello maam holding pondy free of cost share from last one year q2 result is fantastic can weexpect same results in coming quaters pls guide thanks
ReplyDeleteYes you can continue to hold it for another 2 -3 years and once more book some profit at new peak.In the current market situation need to hold all stocks as it is and let the market condition improve in next 4-5 months then only take the decision to book profit in any stock
DeleteHi Mam is it advisable to buy surana solar at cmp of rs 9 for 5 years. Whar r prospect?
DeleteMaam, only for purpose of learning can you explain why a company like HDIL with a book value of rs 266,eps of rs 2.34 ,divident paying still trading at around 21rs,tading at around 9 Pe.would really appreciate if you could help us learn stock picking techinques.thankyou maam.
ReplyDelete