Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Key learnings from 2018 and Next stock update


Dear Readers,


It was really very tough time for the all investors and financial institutes from last one year. Specifically it was very severe for new investors who have started investment in the first half of 2018. Even though our most of the portfolios shrunk 20 to 50% but it has given the best learning experience.  Extreme adverse market conditions of 2018 has forced thousands of new investor to quit forever, I congratulate to all those investors who sail successfully through this turbulent storm. It is your patience and strong will power which has separated you from the crowd to make you successful investor for the rest of your life.


The key learning points



In equity market there is always a risk but it is very less for long-term investment and very high for short-term investment. It is advisable to plan you investment  for long-term at least for 3 -4 years.


Always invest with your own money which is not required to fulfil your urgent need at least for 2 to 3 years.  It is also not advisable to invest in equity market with borrowed money or money taken on interest or loan.


Need to stick with investment decision at least for 2 to 3 years unless there is major change in fundamental of any stock. Habit of holding the stock for longer period will lead bigger gains and bigger self confidence. Same time frequent shuffling  of stocks due to price correction related to market fluctuation will lead to low self confidence and high nervousness will result in further loss.


It is not advisable to average any stock due to fear of loss or to make up the loss. We have seen once any sector or stock start correcting then it can fall much more below than our expectation.  So it will block free cash and it will end up with bigger loss. Same time you can increase your allocation in any winning stock according to the availability of funds irrespective of rise or fall in the stock price. 

Both terms look like same but state of mind and emotions are different, first one is originated after looking at the loss linked with fear and second one  is originated from self-confidence and taken as opportunity for buying aggressively.  For example in the month of February 2019 Deepak nitrate corrected below suggested price but no one interested to buy it even after knowing that  phenol plant has already started but we received several comments for buying Surana solar & Omkar specialty.


In the month of May 2018 we have gone for 30% stop loss in case stock price fall due to adverse market conditions  or sudden change in fundamental of any stock. Specially it is good for new investors due to their limited risk taking ability in the initial phase of their investment carrier.


During initial phase of building a portfolio 10 to 20% allocation in each stock is ok and same time need to book the partial profit near hundred percent and keep the free of cost share for long-term. It will help to expand the portfolio gradually from profit and mitigate the risk.


It is not necessarily to buy every stock but need to invest according to the individual investment capacity / availability of fund and formation of individual portfolio, generally better to keep diversified portfolio with maximum exposure up to 20% per sector.


Our economic and market earning growth is on right path, it is time to get ready to be the part of major market bull run for next 4 -5 years.  Several investment opportunities are available at very good price.


We will go for next  stock in the coming weekend and it will be posted on this blog and our new site way2moneymarket.com on 20th April 2019.





47 comments:

  1. Really appreciate your help and concern towards us mam. God Bless!

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  2. Thanks mam for your assuring words in these turbulent times

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  3. Mam, Is it good to opt in or invest in NPS (Nation Pension Scheme) corporate model account for a person who is in 30% tax slab as up to 10% of basic is non taxable according to 80CCD2?

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    1. You can invest in such scheme if you don’t have any other investment option available or not willing to take any risk because these schemes will not give more than 5 -6 % CAGR on your investment. And it is almost equal to the inflation growth so ultimately your investment will depreciate in the long run.

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  4. Golden advice Free which all should follow and many thanks to Dollymaam Good luck 2019

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  5. Thank you Mam..Your blog has been nothing less than an institution for us...Learned a lot specially in 2018..Profit or no profit, very happy that turbulent times of 2018 has led to evolution of character of many of us retail investors..

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  6. Thank you so much maam... beautifully narrated... i have one doubt, what will be the outcome of market if a hung govt comes into force? Will the market react positively anyway?

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    1. Lot of development is completed and several long term projects are going on which are started by current government. So any government coming they have no option but to continue with same development, if inefficient then it will be little bit slower but still it will able to give GDP growth around 6 to 7 in next 5 years. Which is enough to keep the market in momentum

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  7. Now, I have every recommended stock (since later half of 2018) of equal amount in my kitty. Let us hope for the best. I have been through similar phases during 2000 and 2008 but amount invested in those times were significantly low compared to 2018. I have free shares of orient elec and papers now. Thank you for hand holding.

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    Replies
    1. These stocks will recover very quickly in coming quarters, your patience will get rewarded in big way because several stocks will give multifold returns in next few years as it happened in the past after every major correction.

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  8. Thank you Mam for hand holding through tough journey, grateful forever.

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  9. For a follower of Mam's blog and her ideals, April 2019 wasn't too far as it seemed to others when questions came for next stock recommendation after last recommendation.

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    Replies
    1. Yes you are right, last 7 -8 months passed very quickly

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    2. Another big learning is "I should have invested bit more in this correction" :)
      You are helping us build conviction. With each correction we are building more confidence, patience and will likely invest more. Thank you

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  10. Hi Mam,
    Thank you so much for your guidance and support.
    May god bless you and your family with all success and happiness.
    Thank you once again!

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  11. Thank you mam for your valuable advice and update.

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  12. Thank u so much mam for inspiring article, we are truly grateful to u

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  13. Thanks mam and sir for your guidance during this tough time. My portfolio went down 30-40% but your words and support was valuable.

    I started Ganesh at 144 and kept on buying on every fall and today my avg price is 80 . Similarly Gati started at 130 and today avg buying price is 85 . SPTl started at 62 and today avg price is 35.

    Your constant motivation helped a lot and my investment grew from 2 lacs to 7 times today ( investment only) what a journey. Thanks again. Deepak

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  14. Good read on same topic
    https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-will-to-survive/

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  15. Dear Ma'am,
    Is it advisable to add NOCIL at CMP ?
    Company has completed capacity expansion.
    Concern is margins are at all time high and ADD can be removed
    I added both NOCIL and Deepak Nitrite during drawdown, thinking of adding more NOCIL but confused due to concerns mentioned.

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    1. There is no serious concern, you can buy it for consistent return around 15 to 20% per year

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  16. Replies
    1. Wishing very happy Mahavir Jayanti to you and your family.

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  17. Thanks a lot mam for being with us... Wish to be with you for next decade and learn in life.

    I feel blessed for all learning in last year and have not sold even a single share. Even though portfolio is still down by 30%, hope to see good come back in severely fallen stocks like tpl and ganesh...

    Thanks again and wish you all great bull run which will raise portfolio of all investors.

    Tc.

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    Replies
    1. These stocks will recover within one year and some will perform better than expected

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  18. Thank you Mam for a moral booster dose.

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  19. Hello Madam, It is a good time to buy Radico Khaitan at CMP Rs. 336? If not what will be the best price in case if you are conveniced with the stock?

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    1. My guess is if it corrects to 250

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    2. You can start buying below 300 in small quantities and keep adding on every further correction for long-term investment for consistent return around 15 to 20% per year

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  20. when plastic stocks TPL & SPTL (which are down 50%) recover in a few quarters..portfolio returns will be much better

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  21. Mam, please give insight of rail vikas stock

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  22. same here. I looked at HDFC Net Banking...I did not see Bharat Gears listed

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  23. If you find any difficulty then better to contact your broker

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  24. I applied only in physical form to HDFC bank .This right issues not in digital form

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  25. Get a plain paper application from their website. Link in time Is website. Use asba phsycally or via hdfc bank as it suits u . i ll do that on monday or later with sbi and may update if no joy till then

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  26. hello mam..do u think that Avanti feeds is a good buy as it posted good q3 results...please let me at what price i should add AF..Thanks

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  27. Postal came to our address what we register in demat account. Or go and ask HDFC demat branch near to you . Upto 30 April time available or ask near any brokers physical form. Or u get email of soft copy of form please check

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  28. Dear Mam, Can we invest in Sintex plastic share? I already lost 55% but hope to see the growth. Kindly post your suggestion.

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  29. Message on Moneycontrol Message Board: Stocks
    I this business is generating this much cash as claimed in FS why Debt is inclining continuously check statements of last 10 yrs it rose from 25 Cr to 210 Cr against reserves of 60 odd Cr looks vulnerable in domestic tight liquidity times ahead. Management would have been more prudent by reducing these suspicious leverages which are in more justifying with 10 to 12 % CAGR in last 10 yrs

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  30. Good Morning everyone!

    SPTL at 9 I have 9000 share at 27 average. What should be my take since many articles are around about the SPTL Sintex Inds.
    I could access this only today maa'm .Have not sold any stock entire 2018 was only kept watching diminishing growth of portfolio.
    You have literally taught us the lesson of patience in tough times.
    Thank you Thank you again and again.

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  31. Sintex defaulted after your recommendation and now its a penney stock. Where our analysis went wrong to predict this. I lost almost 2 lacs in sptl. Want to identify learning points to avoid thecsame in future. Can you please help in one of your blog post

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  32. Please reply. Whether to keep and watching or should sell out

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