Friday, March 13, 2020

JK Agri Genetics Ltd - Repeat



CMP = 318



JK Agri Genetics Ltd was part of JK Tyre and Industries and later  demerged into a separate public limited company in 2003. It is leading agri-biotech hybrid seed company with pan Indian presence. Its activities include plant breeding, biotechnology R&D, seed production, processing and marketing of hybrid seeds of various field crops and vegetables. The Company has a wide product range covering all the major commercial segments of the seed business and catering to the requirements of farmers in most of the agro-climatic segments.


JK Seeds Documentary



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYvx225JJyg



 “JK Seeds” the flagship brand, is one of the most trusted seed brands in the country. The Company’s product range can be classified under two major categories, viz., field crops and vegetable crops:



Field crops


It includes hybrids of bajra, jowar, maize, rice, cotton, sunflower, mustard, wheat, pigeon pea, castor etc.





Vegetable crops


It includes hybrids of tomato, bhindi, chilli, watermelon, muskmelon, gourds, brinjal, radish, cabbage, sweet corn, cucumber etc.






Fodder Crops and Plant Growth Solutions 


The company has added new products to expand the portfolio.  





Production and R&D facilities



Company has a team of over 80 scientists working across 7 breeding research centres and 23 multi-location trial centers covering all agro-climatic zones of India. The research centres are located in Sriganganagar, Sonepat, Lucknow, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Dharwad and Jaipur. The facility is well equipped with Dehumidified Cold Storage, Germplasm Bank for keeping the valuable germplasm lines of the mandate crops.


Company has established its state of art biotech laboratory, with facilities for tissue culture, transgenic crop development, molecular biology, molecular breeding, radio isotope laboratory, molecular QC laboratory, insectary and large containment green houses


The company has earned name for itself amongst the farming community through its quality products.  Company has several collaborations with national and international institutes like Dr. Balasaheb Sawant Konkan Krishi Vidyapeeth, Dr. Panjabrao Deshmukh Krishi Vidyapeeth, Directorate of Rapeseed-Mustard Research, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, International Rice Research Institute, Seed Vision, etc, for research and development. 



JK PASS PASS COTTON



JK Pass Pass has been very well accepted in the markets. Since it takes 3 years for a good seed variant to be commercially successful


https://youtu.be/84O8kliCXBM










JK SEEDS PADDY HYBRID JK2082



https://youtu.be/aCqHQQkvZn4







Investment Rationale



Now Indian Farmers are adopting and using more hybrid seeds due to disease and pest resistant properties. It also helps in reducing the losses and cost of production. Hybrid seeds has resulted in many advantages such as yield improvement, better quality agri output and ultimately higher profitability for farmers.


Any Genetically Modified (GM) technology in the market has to first go through rigorous research, development and testing and then seek GEAC approvals, which is a long process and takes around 5-7 years (It is the normal cycle for a seed to be commercialized). Further, developing such technology involves huge cost implications. As such, the entry of a new technology is subject to regulatory approvals and huge investments which create significant high entry barriers. 


JK Agri Genetics has achieved unique distinction of being the first Indian company for commercializing Bt Cotton with indigenous GM Technology 


JK Agri R&D team has delivered good hybrids in Cotton, Corn, Paddy, Bajra, Mustard, Wheat and vegetables. Company has spent around 7.15% of its total income on research & development during FY19.


Ethiopia has approved the commercialization of JK Bt Cotton after five years of field trails  by the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research and JK Agri Genetics.  Ethiopian government has launched the New Cotton Development Strategy (NCDS) which laid out its plans for the coming 15 years (2017-2032) to make Ethiopia one of the world’s top cotton producers with annual cotton lint production of 1.1 million metric tons. Ethiopia has declared strategy to increase the  cultivation area of cotton from 80,000 hectares to 250,000 hectares in next five years and one million hectares till 2032. JK Agri  will be the only approved Bt cotton seed supplier in the Ethiopian market. It gives huge growth potential for JK Agri.


Ethiopia Govt Approval for JK Bt cotton for commercialization



https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Agricultural%20Biotechnology%20Annual_Addis%20Ababa_Ethiopia_2-11-2019.pdf



https://www.eiseverywhere.com/file_uploads/ab61a379f9e9c38b551c623a2dfa0faa_e_Recorder-Vol2_18.pdf



(refer page # 29 -30 -31)


Swiss Govt Approval for JK BT Cotton


https://bch.cbd.int/database/record.shtml?documentid=114535


It is expected that exports will pick up in coming quarters for Ethiopia.  The margins there will be much higher due to absence of price caps. Ethiopia approved commercialization of Bt cotton in order to boost yields and production. Last year, the GOE approved two different varieties of Bt cotton seeds (JKCH 1050 and JKC 1947) for commercial cultivation. There is an ongoing preparation to import the Bt cotton seeds from India for upcoming planting season.


https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Ethiopia%20Cotton%20Production%20Annual_Addis%20Ababa_Ethiopia_5-29-2019.pdf


(refer page # 2 - 4 )


Recently company has raised 50 crores fund to meet the additional working capital requirement for African business by allotment of Equity Shares and fully Convertible Warrants on Preferential basis to the promoters at Rs 484 per share. Shareholding of the Promoter Group has gone up from 23,22,207 Equity Shares (64.44%) to 33,55,264 Equity Shares (72.36%) assuming full conversion of Warrants. 


https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/68695a5d-8920-4590-91e7-1ad1e952e82f.pdf


https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/FD034A65_1AB6_48B5_854C_EF625137EF25_190714.pdf



JK Agri is focusing to increase the share of the vegetable segment due better margins compared to other field crops and cotton.



Domestic business of GM Cotton seed is facing headwinds due to price capping on it. Company is succeeded in commercialising the Bt. Cotton technology in 2 countries where there is no price cap on cotton seeds.  JK Agri Genetics finds fast growing Ethiopian market for its Bt cotton seed which is very lucrative proposition for the company.  




Growth possibilities in seed industry are very huge in India because very few companies are with good R&D capabilities and just 6 - 7  companies like Monsanto, JK Agri,  Kaveri, Rasi seeds, Nuziveedu, Nath-bio are having infrastructure for business scalability. Government is betting big to boost agriculture output. Indian seed industry is expected to grow  at a CAGR of 13.6% during 2019-2024, reaching a value of US$ 9.1 Billion by 2024. Advanced research and technology will change the seed industry to increase the per acre productivity. Seeds will change the way agriculture in the coming years. 



https://www.seedworld.in/pdf/SeedWorld2019-Report.pdf


Feeding a huge population in the next decade has become mammoth task for most of  the asian and african countries. Reduction in cultivation area is adding further pressure. It is not possible without increasing  agriculture output with high yield and disease resistant hybrid seeds.


JK Agri is marketing its products across 25 states through a wide network of 18 carrying and forwarding agencies, 1500 wholesalers / distributors and more than 20,000 retailers.


JK Agri Genetics has very experienced promoters and management team. It is part of the JK Group (East), which is more than 100 years old diversified business group with interests in company like JK Lakshmi Cement, JK Tyre & Industries, JK Paper, Bengal & Assam Limited and JK Fenner Limited. Company has appointed Dr. Gyanendra Shukla as President and Director (CEO) w.e.f May 23, 2019. He is having three decades working with leading multinational agri  companies like Monsanto, Bayer Corporation and Syngenta. 

Conclusion


‘JK seeds’ is well established brand name among the farming community.


Agriculture is the dominant occupation in India, which create abundant opportunities for research based companies like JK Agri which is continuously delivering high yielding, disease & pest resistant hybrid seeds through its dedicated R&D team.


Indian seed market is at point of inflection with future growth above 13% for next decade. Ethiopia is having potential of Rs 150 - 500 crore cotton seed market and it will be  gamechanger for JK Agri due to market monopoly.


Earlier we have bought JK Agri stock on 15 March, 2015 at Rs 450. It has made its life time high of Rs 1925 on 1 August, 2018. Recent market correction has given again great investment opportunity at right time to buy it at multi-year low level of Rs 318.  It can be bought with 10-20 % of allocation.  




158 comments:

  1. Mam is it wise to swap Nitin Spinners with this stock? Please suggest on GP Petro as well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes better to use 30% stop loss to avoid such situation. It is not necessary that it will not correct, if the index is falling near 3000 in one day then any stock can crack

      Delete
  2. Replies
    1. Expected return around 300 -500% in 3 -5 years

      Delete
  3. Great analysis and a very good opportunity. thank you madam.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi,Mam thanks for the stock. My query is Inventories of current 9 months end is 16cr high comparing last fiscal year 9 months leading to losses and negative EPs. Also revenues are increasing yoy but bottom line decreased leading to profit to losses. Could you pls explain this mam.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Below given are some key reason for above query.

      1) Government put capping on Bt cotton seed prices from 2016, it has impacted all seed companies in India including Monsanto. After that JK Agri has intensified its effort for marketing of BT cotton seed to African market and other parts of the world. It requires lot of effort for sampling and field trial to establish new product in the new market. If you see the employee cost and other expenses for 2017-18 and 2018-19 are much higher as compared to previous years. It means that there was a double impact for the company one side margins are reduced due to price capping and other side its expenses gone up due to expansion for new markets. Finally last year JK Agri got the approval for JK Bt cotton commercialisation in Ethiopia and Switzerland. From next financial year we will see good improvement in top line and in bottom line but the operating expenses will remain high for 1 to 2 years due to new market development. If everything goes as per plan then company will able to generate 50 -100 crore profit easily within next 3-4 years, you can calculate the EPS accordingly

      2) Stock price fluctuation in JK Agri was very high because almost 70% business was coming from field crop in the Q1, now JK Agri is focusing on vegetable crops which are grown in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Further African market will help to balance it because cotton crop season starting in Q2- Q3, in this way company will able to generate stable revenue throughout the year and stock price will remain stable in coming years.

      3) currently very less revenue from quarter to Q2 and there is write off on old balance inventory from Q1 resulting negative EPS in Q2. all these issues will get settled with the start of revenue boost from Ethiopia business and growth in vegetable segment from domestic business.

      Delete
  5. Thank you mam, wats your view on IRCTC and KAYA.Kaya came down to 165 level

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  6. Thanks for the new stock recommendation,Mam

    ReplyDelete
  7. Mam, i have invested most of my retirement savings in Nifty index fund through my bank, instead of trough brokerage houses. i would like to know if my bank gets bankrupt, like Yes Bank, is my investment in above mentioned fund still remains safe? In case of bank bail out, can my funds be used by Gov for bailing out the bank, leaving only 5 lakhs for me as per the recent regulations? this came to my mind after the recent debacle with Yes bank. Thank you very much in anticipation of your reply. Regards Philip Ranjan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your fund will remain safe even in case collapse of bank because mutual fund portfolios will be transferred / sold to other AMC. Govt cannot liquidate public mutual fund portfolios to bailout any bank or NBFC.

      Delete
  8. Thank you mam.. analysis is in detail as usual, and the time we've planned to bet on this again is a rare opportunity provided by corona and oil turmoil..

    ReplyDelete
  9. Mam...when u reco. it last and at what price?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Last week market correction was very severe and most of the stock touched multi-year low. Due to this reason I have not given any limit as I mentioned in earlier post. It can be bought + / - 10 to 20% from the suggested price.

      Delete
    2. Mam, i meant, when u recommended it last time and at what price as it is a repeat stock?

      Delete
    3. It not only stock price correction but some positive turnaround which is going to contribute significantly in the near future performance of the company

      Delete
    4. Mar 2015, share price was 450 then... later it touched near 2000.... read the details carefully.... it is already mentioned

      Delete
  10. Mam please suggest v2 retail or meghmani 2 to 3 years tgt

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Mam, thanks for your suggestion as always.

    I have one question, you always suggest stocks that are not much in news and notifications hardly come in. In case we see serious correction happening in the suggested stocks, we have seen few happen like that previously, how to judge if it is a stock issue or market issue? No news, no update on the company website how to take a call to stick or exit? Please suggest.

    Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even in big companies news coming to public domain is very late. To avoid such situation it is better to use 30% stop loss to limit the risk on investment

      Delete
  12. Mam, Is there any issues with Future Consumer? can we buy Future Consumer at CMP?

    ReplyDelete
  13. adam, Can you pls let me know your view on Jain irrigation, indiabulls housing finance, vedanta, Graphite India, pls. I am thinking to invest for 3 to 5 years horizon. Pls advise. They are having good divident history also. Which might give regular income Also. Pls suggest

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thanks for your recommendation mam..
    just one question regarding price decline ..after your 1st recommendation in 2015, it went from 450 to Rs 1780..but starting Aug-2018 it started decline and now its Rs 320....any specific reason for 80% price decline..??
    Thats my doubt otherwise its no brainer buy at this level...
    Thanks in advance for your reply..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Below given are some key reason for above query.

      1) Government put capping on Bt cotton seed prices from 2016, it has impacted all seed companies in India including Monsanto. After that JK Agri has intensified its effort for marketing of BT cotton seed to African market and other parts of the world. It requires lot of effort for sampling and field trial to establish new product in the new market. If you see the employee cost and other expenses for 2017-18 and 2018-19 are much higher as compared to previous years. It means that there was a double impact for the company one side margins are reduced due to price capping and other side its expenses gone up due to expansion for new markets. Finally last year JK Agri got the approval for JK Bt cotton commercialisation in Ethiopia and Switzerland. From next financial year we will see good improvement in top line and in bottom line but the operating expenses will remain high for 1 to 2 years due to new market development. If everything goes as per plan then company will able to generate 50 -100 crore profit easily within next 3-4 years, you can calculate the EPS accordingly

      2) Stock price fluctuation in JK Agri was very high because almost 70% business was coming from field crop in the Q1, now JK Agri is focusing on vegetable crops which are grown in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Further African market will help to balance it because cotton crop season starting in Q2- Q3, in this way company will able to generate stable revenue throughout the year and stock price will remain stable in coming years.

      3) currently very less revenue from quarter to Q2 and there is write off on old balance inventory from Q1 resulting negative EPS in Q2. all these issues will get settled with the start of revenue boost from Ethiopia business and growth in vegetable segment from domestic business.

      Delete
  15. Respected Sir,
    Thank you very much for your another quality recommendation...
    Just for learning purpose, I am asking this question.
    It seems from that operating revenue from March 17 to TTM is continuously same (approx 200 cr) and PAT is decreased from 12 cr to 0.99 cr. What are your expectations for growth? What will be approx PAT for next 3 to 5 years, based on current growth projection? And why? Please elaborate for our learning purpose.
    Thank you sir again in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Below given are some key reason for above query.

      1) Government put capping on Bt cotton seed prices from 2016, it has impacted all seed companies in India including Monsanto. After that JK Agri has intensified its effort for marketing of BT cotton seed to African market and other parts of the world. It requires lot of effort for sampling and field trial to establish new product in the new market. If you see the employee cost and other expenses for 2017-18 and 2018-19 are much higher as compared to previous years. It means that there was a double impact for the company one side margins are reduced due to price capping and other side its expenses gone up due to expansion for new markets. Finally last year JK Agri got the approval for JK Bt cotton commercialisation in Ethiopia and Switzerland. From next financial year we will see good improvement in top line and in bottom line but the operating expenses will remain high for 1 to 2 years due to new market development. If everything goes as per plan then company will able to generate 50 -100 crore profit easily within next 3-4 years, you can calculate the EPS accordingly

      2) Stock price fluctuation in JK Agri was very high because almost 70% business was coming from field crop in the Q1, now JK Agri is focusing on vegetable crops which are grown in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Further African market will help to balance it because cotton crop season starting in Q2- Q3, in this way company will able to generate stable revenue throughout the year and stock price will remain stable in coming years.

      3) currently very less revenue from quarter to Q2 and there is write off on old balance inventory from Q1 resulting negative EPS in Q2. all these issues will get settled with the start of revenue boost from Ethiopia business and growth in vegetable segment from domestic business.

      Delete
  16. Hi Madam thanks for the new recommendation, how is ADF@ cmp 161

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can continue to hold free of cost shares as it is but it is not advisable to buy at CMP

      Delete
  17. @dear Madam,

    After current panic sell. Do you see any quality names across market caps come under buying ranges or expecting to come in next few days, if market corrects further.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 99% stock corrected more than 20% in last week so you can buy any stock in small quantity and keep adding on every further correction. JK Agri one of the best talk with the highest growth potential

      Delete
  18. Madam Bt Cotton will be sown in 8000 hectares on trial basis in Ethopia. Future will depend on results of field trials. So right now it may not be the take off stage.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Madam ji can we expect good numbers in q4 for JK Agri

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes we can expect better result from Q4 and onward. There will be gradual improvement in top and bottom line, it will continue for long term.

      Delete
  20. For next 1 year better return purposes pls suggest one' stock... JK AGRI & JUBLENT IND OR DEEPAK FERTILIZERS ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These stocks corrected too much in recent market correction and all are able to give 50 - 100 return from CMP in next one year on the improvement of market sentiment but JK Agri is having highest potential in the long run.

      Delete
  21. Hi Mam,

    Thanks for your new recommendation.
    Understood that JK agri is also fertilizer sector like deepak fertilizer stock.

    Is both has same kind of fertilizer business or different?

    One more query is, I hope you told that Clariant chemical is good one to buy below 300. But it's sales are not in good growth past 3 years and it's ROE and ROCE are also less than 7% past 3 years.
    Could we understand that why you said that it's good one?
    Sorry for asking irrelevant share info.

    Thanks for your time and support in advance

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seed and fertilisers are different business but both belongs to Agri sector.

      Clariant has exited traditional business pigment, dye chemical and master batches

      New businesses have just started performing from last few quarters and it will take 2 to 3 years to reach previous ratios

      Delete
  22. Mam ur views on Jindal Stainless (Hisar)?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Madam, thank you for the support you are doing for retail investors like us.i hold nahar industrial 600 shares @115rs .I don't think that stick will re bounce.shall I swap it to LT foods at current price so that it will come to 115 of my purchase price or swap it to any of our blog suggested stocks.pls advice mam

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In current situation LT food is having better prospects then Nahar industrial you can swap it

      Delete
  24. Madam how is ADF @ cmp 162,how it compare with JK agri and deepak fertilizer for one year time frame

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ADF corrected very severely due to its Business exposure to US market. Coronavirus effect may take longer time in cold countries like US and european union. It is having very less effect on rural area and agri sector business

      Delete
  25. Sir your inputs on jk Agri debt and impact on company if not able to serve debt due to any off business condition

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 50 crore debt is very small for this size company, even few weeks ago promoter have raised 50 crores via preferential issue for working capital

      Delete
  26. Mam, Are there any issues with Kaya and Future Consumer? Can we buy them at CMP?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both businesses are in initial growth phase and it will take 4 to 5 years to give good return, if you can invest at least for five years then you can buy in small quantities and keep adding on every further correction

      Delete
  27. 13. You mentioned in point 3. That there is write off on old balance inventory - so does this seeds gets spoiled or want to understand what is the life span of those seeds ?
    Thank you sir.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes germination and physical properties of seed get reduce with time

      Delete
  28. Madam, Ethopia will cultivate Bt Cotton in 8K hectares for trial and future depends on performance/result. Should't we wait for the result?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trial for 800 ha is already done and approval is already came for commercial production

      Delete
  29. Hello Mam,

    Adf foods has dropped like a rocket.. is it because of exposure to us. Does it make sense to add more at these levels

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can continue to hold free of cost shares as it is but it is not advisable to buy at CMP

      Delete
  30. Dear madam,
    1. Do you suggest to follow any guidelines to reserve some cash all the time?
    2. Any guidelines to save the capital erosion since many of us not followed 30% loss strategy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When market is on continuous downtrend then it is very difficult for investors to keep always cash because most of the investment is getting blocked, in such cases only fresh or top up fund can help. In normal market condition if someone is booking profit near 100% then it will also create a sufficient liquidity for fresh investment.

      In correcting market always buy the stock in small quantities and keep stop loss to limit the risk

      Delete
    2. I am in similar position now. No fund to top up and what is in equity is gone hence staring and probably I got to blame my stars and to wait for turn around. Hope this shall too pass.
      Thank you Ma'am.

      Delete
  31. 1. Mr. sanjay kumar gupta left and what was his qualification and the new president mr. Gyanendra sukla has been appointed - seem to be highly qualified and has good past experience. Can you through some light on the expected changes going forward ?

    2. How long its been since co entered vegetable seeds and other seeds market as in ratings report it was mentioned due to large product portfolio and complicity co. was not able to scale up its new launches. Going forward how is co able to scale up and gain market share from pears ?

    3. Co has announced - supply of BT COTTON SEED to ethiopia where there is no pricing cap like in india. Is co in pipeline for any other countries even for any other products ?

    4. Pears like nath bio-geans and kaveri are large in terms of sales, profitability, growth and market cap and more importantly they dont have any other businesses like jk group. Wouldn't that impact or how beneficial would be the performance going forward ?

    5. Is co taking any plans to cover the slag season after june to dec. When sales are very very low - impacting their dependency on q4and q1 ?

    6. Who imp would be the role of supplying BT COTTON seed to africa in terms of exports and domestic rational and margins as i was understood over nearly 4 years co could generate profit of 150 to 500 cr .?

    7. Any change in plans over high inventory , extended credit period, govt dependency, working cycle , return goods etc..

    8. What is buy back price for foundation seeds - regulated by govt ? I have hurd this for the first time plz if u can explain it ?

    9. Co made write -off on old balance inventory which affected q2 2019. Plz if u can help me understand the process ?

    10. What is the life span of these seeds in particular ?

    11. Going through financials its calculating that co sold cotton seeds at relatively low price near 640/- for 450 gms.

    12. Can you share the break up of product line especially fodder crop and plant growth, also the expected growth product wise !

    these doubts will help in learning the business being an investor for long term.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sanjay Kumar Gupta was DT from NDRI and PG in marketing from IIM Ahmedabad, he was working with JK Agri since 2008. Dr Gayaninder sukla is having PhD in botany and genetics, he’s having vast experience working with major seed , biotech & crops protection MNC at national and international level. Specially his experience with Monsanto is very useful for JK Agri in India as well as in Africa.

      Only 30% of Indian Seed market is with organised sector so no need to snatch any business from any peers but company can grow his own market because lot of scope available in agri-sector.

      Generally it took 6 -7 years to get approval for commercial marketing of seed in any country. There are three countries where JK Bt cotton technology is commercialised

      JK Agri is spending higher on research and development as compared to its peers, the benefit of research and technology driven company is that if one product will get successfully commercialised it will bring ample opportunities

      Seed is perishable item with maximum lifespan is two years
      The fodder crop and plant growth regulator are having contribution below 5%
      I have not given any figure with microscopic analysis, just simple thing need to understand that company is having very small equity base with 50 crore net profit EPS will be above Rs 100 and with hundred crore profit EPS will be above Rs.200. In Ethopia the company will get major benefit due to 1st mover advantage as Monsanto has got in India.

      Delete
  32. Dear madam, Market is bleeding. Can we sell now and buy it later. My portfolio further down almost 20% in the 10 days. Not able to think how much further it will go down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully nifty will not break 8000, you can use 30% stop loss to limit your risk

      Delete
  33. Dolly ji: how much time we can safely assume for our 70 to 75% loss to recover? It esentially means that our current investment at current levels will need to rise by 300% just for our portfolio to recover and we are dreaming for 300 to 500% return in 3 to 5 yrs.

    Market condition is horrible and never expected to face this sort of situation in lifetime. As you have been in market for 20 yrs, whats ur view?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even one stock is sufficient to cover all losses. once any stock start moving it will not take much time. Recent example of Yes Bank it moved from Rs 6 to Rs 64 within a week. Hopefully nifty will not go below 8000,

      Delete
  34. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Market has given very wonderful opportunity to invest in current situation, if you are able to invest even 300 to 400million then your target of 1 billion is very much achievable in next 2 to 3 years

      Delete
  35. Mam, after seeing the charts of many stocks...of past 20 years....when there was a major collapse in indexes....in 2007....many stocks were unable to recover to their previous high....and which did it took them some 10 years. Current fall is very alarming.i hope things doesnt repeat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Generally market follow same cycle and pattern, only company with good business ethics, promoters and product will survive even they become more stronger than before after passing the cycle of slump

      Delete
  36. Mam i am holding adf food from 167 level since your recommended. Haven't book profit. Now price came same level.

    Also holding deepak nitrite. As you told to book partial profit near 600.

    What to do? Should i exit and invest in jk agri?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now you continue to hold both stocks as it is. These stocks will recover very quickly once Coronavirus effect will vanish within a few months

      Delete
  37. Mam I have high exposure in Nitin Spinners, Pennar Industries, TPL Plastech & GP Petro. Please suggest if I need to hold as it is or swap any of the stocks with JK Agri.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now you can continue to hold all stocks as it is. If possible you can keep adding in small quantities on every further correction.

      Delete
  38. Mam...can i add more in tpl plastech. As it is continuosly performing and the price seems to be very lucrative. Dividentd yield is also good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can add it for long term investment it will recover very quickly once market sentiment will come out to the grip of Coronavirus

      Delete
  39. Hello Mam,

    Below Analysis of Nitin Spinners Ltd. for our lovely blog members.
    This analysis help to learn Technical Analysis if anyone interested.

    Below is the link. Please check in details.

    https://in.tradingview.com/chart/NITINSPIN/IowVPZF3-NITIN-SPINNERS-LTD-1D-NSE-LONG/

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hello Madam,

    Please suggest one stock which will give good returns for one year to cover all our losses ?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy jubilant industry and JK Agri for 3 -4 years investment plan but it may not give desired a result within a one year

      Delete

  41. Dear blog members

    In last few weeks we have seen 25 to 30% correction in Sensex and Nifty. Most of the retail investors are in deep losses and seeing that there is no end for this market meltdown. They are looking their specific stocks or portfolio but it is not the case whole market getting corrected even reliance industries corrected 30 to 40%. In this situation need to stay calm and composed, have a patience, if possible buy in small quantities on every further correction, hopefully nifty will not break 8 k level. Definitely market will rebound very quickly, it has happened in past and it will happen in future also.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Madam, thanks so much for your support and valuable words which will give us some confidence in this turbulent times, otherwise we are almost devastated by this market crash. My PF is in loss up to 60 % due to downturn since Jan 2018 but the latest crash for the last 10 days is like never before. Hopefully we can see some good days going forward.

      Delete
    2. Madam,
      Thanks for your timely advice
      best Regards
      VST

      Delete
  42. Mam...can we increase allocation in all our existing stocks like tpl, pennar,kcp,ganesh housing,nitin, bharat gears or only allocate in recently suggested stocks like deepakfert, jubilant, jk agri.
    I am asking bcoz all our stocks are at mouth watering level and if they are still holding on too all the parameters then why not buy them now.
    1.5 lakh invested in same stock earlier can be bought today at 25-30k...in this way partially if we invest in each stock then our buy price. Will decrease substantially and upside in next 3-5 years will be very huge. Pls specify few names which have upper hand among our already invested stocks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can increase the allocation in Pennar industry, TPL, jubilant industry, Nitin spinner and Deepak fertiliser

      Delete
  43. Madam can I buy jamna auto,first source solutions and canfin Homes, srikalahasthi pipes cmp

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Srikalahasthi Pipes can be bought from cmp in small quantities and added mere on every further correction.
      Not tracking other stocks.

      Delete
  44. Maam can I buy kamdhenu and transport corporation at cmp

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can add these stocks in small quantities and keep adding on further correction for long-term investment only

      Delete
  45. Hello Madam, thank you for the new stock. I have been accumulating the stock in the range of 350-420.

    I would like to ask, why the company is paying tax on the income whereas peer companies like nath and kaveri don't pay tax and considers it as agricultural income ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Apart from paying tax , JK Agri is spending more research and development then above-mentioned both companies. JK group is having good reputation for business ethics and corporate governance.

      Delete
  46. Madam can I add GP PETRO at this level

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy it for long term investment only.
      lubricant sector is related with auto mobile and auto mobile sector is passing through a rough time and it may take a little longer time for recovery

      Delete
  47. madamji whats ur view regarding rain industries ?? fundamentals expansion and supreme court problems pleasse calrify. is it grt buy for next 5 yrs view.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still there is no clarity on the future so better to invest in some other stock.

      Delete
  48. madamji can you suggests one new stock in april first month so we can get stock at bottem.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JK Agri is of the best option available at very low price. We’ll go for next stock in the month of July or Aug. market is already full of opportunities but nobody can predict the bottom. The best way to invest in such situation is that buy in small quantities and keep adding on every further correction.

      Delete
  49. Hello Mam,
    Can you kindly suggest on NOCIL and target price for sell. As it is part of your Portfolio, do you consider it as blackhorse?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. You can start buying in small quantities and keep adding on every further correction for long term investment only.
      it is related to auto mobile and auto mobile sector is passing through a rough time and it may take a little longer time for recovery

      Delete
  50. Dear Maam, Manapuram Finance has gone done to 87. The valuations look very attractive.

    Woukd you suggest buying it at current levels.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, You can buy it in small quantities and keep adding on further correction

      Delete
  51. Mam, Deepak nitrite may come to 300 in current situation. If I wanted to go with one stock for 2 years then which one would you suggest Deepak Nitrite at 300 or Jk Agri. Both are having very good potential

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy Deepak nitrate in case of further correction below 250.
      JK Agri is one of the best option available at very low price.

      Delete
  52. Mam any views on selan exploration, sales is equal to market cap, 7.7% divident yield, debt free?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It can be bought only for long-term investment only downtrend in crude oil may last longer than expected

      Delete
  53. Do you track varroc eng, it is down to 200 from 1200

    ReplyDelete
  54. Hello Ma'am
    Please share your views on IFB Agro, Shree Pushkar, Kothari Petro.. They have all fallen sharply. Can we add some more at this price?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, you can add these stocks except Kothari Petro

      Delete
  55. Dear Madam - JK Agri is listed as Group X stock and it going from 320 to 300 & back.
    What is this Group X stock and tried to search on google but was not able to understand please.Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Group X stocks are listed and traded only on BSE. Settlement for group X stocks is on normal rolling basis. There are lot of seller above 340 but if you are put buying order only below 320 then how it will go up?

      Delete
  56. Madam
    Deepak nitrate is coming drastically nowadays.Is it becoz of exposure to
    U.S?

    Thanx

    ReplyDelete
  57. Mam,
    Whats your view on Future Retail and Future consumer with recent fall? Will promotor loose control as share price keeps hitting lower circuit and they pledge more shares. Is business as usual? Can I invest in future retail as it looks cheaper compare to avenue market? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Future consumer businesses is in initial growth phase and it will take 4 to 5 years to give good return, if you can invest at least for five years then you can buy in small quantities and keep adding on every further correction

      Not tracking Future Retail

      Delete
  58. Dear Maam, APL Apollo has done really well in the past 2-3 years.
    It has recently corrected a lot. Please give your views if one can add at current price?

    ReplyDelete
  59. Can we buy ashok Leyland and tata motars shares as it is very less

    ReplyDelete
  60. Hello Ma'am,

    Is it advisable to invest in Nifty 50 fund at this stage? If yes, can you please please suggest a good Nifty 50 fund.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry no idea about investment in Nifty 50 fund

      Delete
  61. Dolly Mam,

    All the stocks are in deep correction. Do you think the stocks you have mentioned 300-500% gain in 3-5 yrs will be a reality?

    All stocks which were in Profit, i have completely exited and put in MF Monthly Dividend.

    Please advise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, 300-500% gain in 3-5 yrs is very much possible if invested in equity at current price. If MF linked with equity then there must be similar correction but annual return will not be more than 15%.

      Delete
  62. Mam, I've few shares of Ruchira papers should I exit or leave as it is ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have only few shares of Ruchira papers, you can add more at cmp

      Delete
    2. Namaste mam ,Ruchira paper q3result is very poor. why?

      Delete
  63. Can we by Orient papers @ CMP? Look like there will be huge demand for tissue papers in future ? Please suggest

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy it for long-term investment only

      Delete
    2. Mam that fine jus want to check with you, is it ok to buy @ CMP or not?

      Delete
    3. In correcting market always buy the stocks in small quantities and keep adding on every further correction

      Delete
  64. Some rating agencies are questioning HDFC bank now? I wonder if HDFC is not safe then whole financial system will collapse..your view mam.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bank will not collapse but such negativity can bring the share price down and it may cause tremendous loss to investors

      Delete
  65. Hi Dolly maam

    Hope you are fine and taking care to fight against COVID-19…

    I want to know your views on new company to be seen or any existing pick from your kitty after outbreak of Covid-19 and disruption caused in businesses and available at attractive valuations..

    Thanks
    Nirav Karia

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Almost every sector is providing great investment opportunity, several good stocks are trading at multi-year low level. Covid 19 has short-term impact on every business except pharma sector.

      Delete
  66. Dear mam,
    Cai i invest in manappuram finance. It is trading below 100

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is good stock to buy below 75 in case of further correction

      Delete
  67. Ma'am, kindly share your views on Amarjothi Spinning, KCP, ALkali metals, Sunflag iron.. Can we add more at CMP? I also have a high exposure to Kesoram. Cuold we expect some recovery going forward?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to follow investment strategy and avoid non-performing stock for reinvestment.

      https://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2018/05/review-of-investment-strategy.html?m=1

      Now you can continue to hold Kesoram and invest in jubilant industry or JK Agri

      Delete
  68. When is kamdhenu is going to happen and what is cut-off date before which we need to own shares to get eligibility for Kamdhenu Paints shares ? is it good to buy now so that it will have value unlock similiar to TCI ,Please suggest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Generally it took 12 to 15 months to complete the process of demerger and listing of any stock. It can be bought in small quantities on every further correction for long-term investment only

      Delete
  69. Dear Madam, I have Nitin spinners at 120 and it is 12% of portfolio my portfolio. Can you pls suggest whether I can increase holding to 20% of my current portfolio l. Pls advise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can continue to hold it as it is and make fresh investment in JK Agri or jubilant industry

      Delete
  70. About corona virus statement by doctor,
    Just loved this statement from the AIIMS doctor on NDTV....

    *." This virus has a very big ego, he will not come to your house unless you go out and invite him"*

    😊👍🏻👏🏻👌🏻

    ReplyDelete
  71. Sir which of our blog suggested stocks will have comparatively less impact of current Korana virus and economic slow down and why?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agriculture is the backbone of India. In any case we need food and grains to feed 130 crore population. Impact of Covid-19 will be very less in rural area.

      Delete
  72. Mam, Gradual buying is also not working in this mkt. Covid-19 looks a bigger event than any crisis. Whole country locked down. All business will be impacted. Should we be greedy now or wait for some time and then buy. Your words will bring confidence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Definitely next 15 days will be very critical to control the outbreak in India and we are very hopeful that our people will do it. On recovery from corona virus with minimum damage, it will result very fast recovery of stock market. We have seen in the last week that fluctuation of market indexes are very high Sensex can easily fell down to 3000 and it can climb up easily to 3000. Use deep dips to add the stocks in small quantities.

      Delete
  73. Madam take my pronum.i have ktk bank @172 and it is 50% of my portfolio.i had bought it two years ago when a famous investor bought it. Now his holding is nill. Can i return my purchase price? Please guide or advise what can i do now.hold or switch to any blog suggested stok.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. Banking sector is under deep stress after the yes bank crises and coronavirus outbreak has added fuel to fire on financial system. At present almost every business halted all over the world so impact will be seen at least one quarter.You can continue to hold Karnataka bank as it is, it will recover in coming quarters on recovery of financial system

      Delete
    2. Madam I have some TCI shares, can add some more shares at cmp

      Delete
  74. Madam can I buy JK agri at cmp 600.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Mam, I want to make SIP monthly in Tata consumer (10000/ approx) for 10 years. Is it a good decission ?

    ReplyDelete
  76. hello Ma'am , current price is around 820, is it good idea to book some profit?

    ReplyDelete
  77. Mam, your views on patanjali q1 results.

    ReplyDelete