Investment guide to new investors. Disclaimer : Investment in equities is subjected to significant risk. Need to read and follow the SEBI guidelines under 'Combined Risk Disclosure Document' before taking any decision to invest in equities. This blog contains only my personal view about market and equities. Any investment decision should be taken with your own analysis and risk.
Happy Ganesh chaturthi....whats you view on agrochemical and rural themes....gnfc can it be bought at this level....when can we expect your next pick....please need your view on agri theme
Thank you madam, are you still holding gnfc and what's your view on insecticides india suggested here a year before, but it has listed very good Q1 & in agro space....
Dear Dolly maam, Happy Ganesh Chaturthi to you and your family. May god bless you and fulfil all your wishes. Thanks so much for all your stock recommendations and guidance.
Hi mam, my question is how to participate in company concall?If someone wants to listen the management live without asking any questions can he do so? Can you explain the procedure? Thank you.
Ma'm regarding OMKAR/ LASA...when Lasa lists...will Omkar and Lasa give different returns over 3 years, or both same? From your analysis it looked like Lasa has better potential. Thanks
Wish you happy Ganesh chaturthi you and your family members.now a days every one is thinking selfish,but you are doing great service for small investors with out expecting single rupee.Long live madem
On the occasion of our Jain Religious Festival Paryushan, I sincerely apologize 'mam' and all followers for my post's acts & deeds which may have hurt your feelings by our thoughts, words or conduct. Man Vachan Kaya se "Michhami Dukkadam."
Hi mam,a basic question. When someone buy a stock in initial level and then the story unfolds,and he accumulate more and stay invested long term till the price reachs to it's target. Question is, is there any wrong understanding to this investment hypothesis? e.g in case of talbros i bought at Ur recommended price, it is up 90%, now the story unfolds, latest biggest order win,mngmt concall, vision 2020, operating leverage, etc... Being a long term investor Can we accumulate more and stay invested for another 2 to 3 years. When confidence gets increased don't you think it is right way to serious wealth creation. When I go through some legendary investors book they did the same thing e.g Warren buffet in early 1970 did the same thing, accumulated coca-cola at different price brand and still holding on. The same theory is applicable to jk agri, pushkar, waterbase etc. these companies are still microcap. Great growth opportunities lying ahead of them. Ur view on this please . Much appreciated. Any blog follower comments is also welcome.
Warren Buffett probably knew the company and the business inside out,probably a lot more than the people managing it . We will be better off to remember his 1st cardinal rule, PROTECT UR CAPITAL
Better to buy the stocks which are trading near to the suggested price instead of chasing the old recommendation at 100% above suggested price. We have new stock suggestion almost every second month then no point to buy the stocks at higher price.
Higher entry level will increase the significant risk on investment in case of market correction or change in fundamental of any stock. It also depend upon risk profile of individual investors. Most of the new investors are very sensitive to the market correction so we don't want any risk on our investment. If we able to protect our investment then good gain is certain.
Mam is giving open questions for exam. If you only read the open question you will get 100%. In other words, if you buy any stocks from this blog at suggested price we all know we higher percentage of return. I am strictly following buying price and my portfolio is not in red.
Mam, I want to invest 3 lac in stock market for 4 to 5 years, So pls suggest me some good stock for my portfolio they will give 300 to 400% return. Thanks
Mam, you keep on recommending 8-10 stocks yearly, so how can you manage monitoring all the fundamentals in several stocks, do you do alone or have team? how can you do it? is it possible for single person all these, like educating people through blog and finding new stock and still monitoring all the stock which you recommend here, hats or for your knowledge and kind ness to the society.
It is only possible because of love and passion for this work. Some time I am getting the help of few family members for graphic while new stock posting.
Mr unknown, madam has to monitor stocks not only you said, she will be monitoring stocks in her portfolio, watch list stocks(research for new good socks to post in the blog)and madam is answering to evry question or doubt raising in this blog. It will be more time taking for mam to handle all this, we atleast stop asking repeated questions. Thank you Dolly mam for your dedication towards small investors like us.
Respected madam, I want to invest approx 10 lakh,which strategy better to me either purchase kcp, kesoram and orient paper of whall amount or part of amount for three stack and remaining amount for future stock like lasa and stock most probably given in month of October.
You can allocate 20% in each stock Orient Paper, KCP and Kesoram. I was good if you decided it last week during market correction, even Pennar Ind was in good buying range below 50.
Happy Ganesh chaturthi mam. Had a question regarding Orient electric. Bajaj electric which is a competitor of orient electric trades at less than 1 times sales. I might have missed something here but just wanted to know because other competitors like havells & cmropton greaves consumer are trading at more than 3 times sales. Orient electric also has sales of ~1300 crores and PAT of 40 crores. What target do you expect for orient electric after demerger. Also, one more thing profit margins of bajaj electrical are less than 5%. revenues is ~4200 crores PAT is 107 crores so profit margin are less than 3%. Could you please help us understand how can a company operate at such low margins & is this a reason company is trading at such valuations. If that's the case than don't you think there is not much scope of appreciation for orient electric. I know I am missing something here could you please enlighten me that would be great. Further, Crompton Greaves & havells have much better margins & is it the reason for much better valuation than bajaj electrical. I had purchased TCI, ABFRL & Pennar industries on your recommendation. Thanks for that.
Better to compare Orient Electric with any company after one year of listing, once the price of both stocks will get stabilized. Because price of both stocks should be taken into consideration while comparing it with any peers.
Our target is not separate for paper and electrical business but it is combined on pre demerger investment.
With such think margins how can we expect Orient to trade at more than 1x sales ma'am? Also I'm sure the company must have some debt levels, or is all debt held by paper business? Because if electrical business is debt free then margin will shoot up..
Mam can I buy alkali metal at cmp . I know its nearly 20% up from recommended price but since its more than a year it is recommended so time taken to reach 300-500% could be lesser
Madam, after correction in price,could you please share your thought on Uniply Industries. Per product demand in future whether one should buy this in current price or not.
Jubilent Industries has been corrected significantly from 400 to 220. Would you like to comment upon that? Is there any chances of quick recovery from cmp? I have entered @190 a while back.
It looks like your comment has drawn the attention of some investors. Due to low equity it can reach to upper circuit even with very less trading volume. Average 4 - 5K blog page views per day so such possibilities cannot be ruled out.
Let me throw some light on KCP ltd for readers. Sugar crushing capacity will come on stream over FY18 this will show good jump in revenues and profits. Cement capacity will come on stream only in H2FY19 so we will re rating and huge upside only over FY19. Orient will have to expand margins to get a better valuation. I think it is fair to assume that as product portfolio expands margins will also improve. Paper business is doing well. This stock can give 100% over next 3 years. I don't know if 300% is possible unless debt in electrical business is negligible and margins hit atleast 7-9% net. Otherwise it will trade at roughly 1.5x sales and paper biz will be valued at roughly 500cr giving us a combined valuation of around 2500-3000cr worst case. So virtually no downside on the pick. Pennar you can wait to enter at 50-55 levels. Kesoram I will not enter.
Mr. Golf coach, seems that you have a good knowledge but I suggest you re-think on: 1. Have you ever visited or spoke to any promotor or management of any listed co ? 2. Views which you are sharing seem to be negative- so you should have shared with supporting link ? 3. Kcp sugar is separate entity though same promotor, it's most diverse- and all companies are as old as cumulative of your and my age and internationally recognised and certified. 3. For Orient paper and Electric- just think once,if you & we can understand that co. Needs to develop premium margin products- for margin expansion- doesn't the bord members don't know-how actually they know better and they are already into. It's fan technology- brush less direct (BLDC), switchgear technology- snap disc bi-metal, it's franchise model, new entry into home appliances, online direct sales-orientelectricshop.com, detect bids for crores of Odders of led street light and railway station which was earlier dominated by players like Philips and many more changes have taken place. They have opened depos at almost every big city approx 200-300 km for better supply to its dealers. 4. Loan is not at all a problem for any co. Till it's in control. 5. Pennar you are saying we can wait to enter- I must say it has given 40% return from suggest price , when people are already invested and still you say to wait. All members know that it has given a breakout after years due to a very good result. 5. Kesoram limited- all time greatest investor also regretted that he dint invest in Amazon- Warren buffet..!! So deciding not to invest is your choice but my view is that co has a solid potential to become a 4 digit stock- to know the reason you try read blog of kesoram again and for even more information you need to visit the co and understand it's potential.
Hello Dolly Ji, Have been reading few forums and key take away from all of them is the demand for cement as a commodity to go up significantly in the future, I believe the rationale of investment in Kesoram, KCP for a period of 3-4 years is on those lines. Is that a right way to interpret your recommendations on the above two stock in particular.
Generally any stock after demerger will list at lower price and it will move up gradually within next one year so we should not much concerned about listing price of Lasa or Orient Electric. Just have look on TCI Express and Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical to get the rough idea about price movement after listing.
Dear mam, i am new to share market, my view may be silly, you said that the price will be lower while demerger takes place, then why should we buy now, we can buy after demerger itself na?
But it will be 30 -40% higher than suggested price or demerged price. You have not seen properly the listing price of TCI Express and Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical before posting this comment
Dear Mam, pls let us know the cutoff date in orient paper regarding demerger of orient electric. Also pls let us know why the result of rswm isn't so good
Doklam issue is settled now, but north Korea issue rised up after missile test causing global market going down, is this also a temporary matter and can we seen at good buying opportunity or something worst is yet to come.
Dear Blog Owner. According to your estimates, what is fair value for Omkar de-merged? I am trying to work on it considering the debt.. what value to assign as of today? or to let it be for 1-2 years and let the story develop. As always, await your valued advise.
In current situation market will not give it higher valuation, we can expect significant price appreciation once both companies start operating with consistent growth and financial stability.
I want to know your views on zee learn. Last 5 years constantly growing there sales and also eps. It has not at all performed in this bull run due to tree house problem but now they have called of the merger..Is it a good buy at current level? Can we trust the management?
Madam, Dhunseri tea sales dropped to 22 crores compared to 33 crores during june 2016. Is it a matter of concern. Also some where i read in your replies that pondy oxide can reach 1000. Does it have potential and should we hold it. I had planned to sell completely at around 550 as per your earlier advise.
This is to inform you that in respect of the petition filed by the Company for sanction of the Scheme of Arrangement between Orient Paper & Industries Limited ('Demerged Company') and Orient Electric Limited ('Resulting Company'), the National Company Law Tribunal, Kolkata bench by its Order dated 18th August 2017 has fixed the date of hearing of the petition for the approval of the scheme on 11.10.2017. In terms of the said Order, notice of hearing before the Kolkata bench of the National Company Law Tribunal on 11th October 2017 has been advertised in the 'Business Standard' in English and in the 'Orissa Bhaskar' in Oriya on Wednesday, the 30th day of August 2017. Scanned copies of the said publications are attached.
Hello mam Have been really benefited by your recommendation of tci, shree pushkar , talbros. Thanks a ton Abfrl have purchased @ RS 155.00. Since a year. Your views for the same or recommend to new suggestions Thanks
DTIL result is out, Kindly advice us whether shall we keep continue to hold this script or should we sell, again DTIL has offloaded one of its subsidiary, Please give your comment on this both developments.
Generally Q4 and Q1 are weak quarter for tea producing companies, long term view is good. Disposing off (Elfin Heights Private Limited) non core business is also good decision.
Mam, I want to buy RSWM @255-275 in case of further correction with the expatiation of at least 25%-30% CAGR for next 4-5 years. Please give your valuable advice. Thanks.
Madam good morning.I have bought pennant industries 200 shares@46.I want to stay invested in this for at least 5 years,so can I buy now at 65.can it reach 200 in that period.pls advice
Nobody can predict a 10x But I can confidently tell you that KCP can become a 7x if all goes well and some huge re-rating jumps in. a 250cr bottom line which is a high probability at a 35 PE will give you a a roughly 8000cr market cap. So you can buy KCP and hopefully it will turn into a 10x if you are lucky. Otherwise Repro India have a new aggregation business like ola, uber you can bet on them if you are very lucky they could 10x. You could look at NESCO if all goes well in 2025 with re-rating they can go 10x. But these are all based mostly on luck, nobody can predict a 10x like that. And I'm there would be a blog post if such an opportunity was a certainty.
Amazing and as per expectations. Sugar business is going to be a huge kicker at the of the FY because they report only once a year and new capacity is operational. Keep adding on dips.
In general will cement sector (kesoram) have effect of monsoon on this quarterly earnings? Being positive we should always expect positive result but just wanted to take your thought on whether cement is all year business or cyclical? Kesoram has been in a range of 130-170 long time, every time result not meeting expectation and it comes back to 140 or so. Is it not possible further protracted negligence by market on price of kesoram due to not meeting market expectation for long time?
Im a regular reader of your blog..now i would like to be a follower of yours..im intrested in following you over surana solar..i have my own reasons for choosing that..what i want to know is..will it be a good idea if i make it as my highest allocation. please comment
Solar industry might be like the airline industry. Good for the country but not good for shareholder wealth creation. Price per unit has fallen more than 50% in last two years and it is heavily dependant on govt. Better to buy pennar etc: who are proxies on overall infra which will also ride on solar.
KCP results look extraordinary...almost seem too good to be true! The performance can be attributed to the excellent growth in the Cement business. Is it a one time performance or do you think the turnaround and re-rating in the stock has begun? Can we see continued rise in performance in the coming quarters too? Request your views on it.
You will see continuous rise in revenue because KCP has new capacity coming in 2019 and fresh capacity fro sugar in vietnam has already started production this will be captured at the end of the FY since results are shown only once a year for that.
Dear mam i posted my query about omkar speciality annual report. Your name is not there in top ten shareholders? Do you have a very small exposure to it? you can even reply me on goelexport@gmail.com
One more question mam today kcp june qtr results were outstanding..thanks for the wonderful pick..do you expect to continue the trend even in coming qtrs.
Happy Ganesh chaturthi....whats you view on agrochemical and rural themes....gnfc can it be bought at this level....when can we expect your next pick....please need your view on agri theme
ReplyDeleteAgrochemical and rural economy is having good growth potential. GNFC can be bought near 250 with expected return around 15 - 20 % per year.
DeleteMost probably next stock will be posted in the month of October.
Thank you madam, are you still holding gnfc and what's your view on insecticides india suggested here a year before, but it has listed very good Q1 & in agro space....
DeleteHAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI.
ReplyDeleteMam, How is ADF result?
Result is good, overseas business started giving positive result. You can continue to hold it for further gain.
DeleteRespect you!!!
ReplyDeletePlease recommend us our bless with you.
Can I incerease my holding in ABRFL or purchase orient paper as I have limited amount .
ReplyDeleteCan orient gives quick Return
You can buy any stock +/- 10% from suggested price. You can buy Orient Paper at cmp.
DeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi
ReplyDeleteDear respected mam,
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh chaturthi to you & all family members.
HAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI
ReplyDeleteMam,when is kesoram result??
Plz share your view on Akjo Nobel, any suggestion from paint ind??
Thank you
Sorry not tracking Akzo Nobel
DeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi Mam, may Lord Ganesha shower you and your family with love, prosperity and good health
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot mam and may God bless you for the selfless services you are rendering to the mankind.
ReplyDeleteThank you Mam for the Wishes. Wish you and all the members in this Blog, Happy Ganesh Chaturthi. What is your view on Cosmo Films?
ReplyDeleteCosmo Films is good stock for long term investment. It can be bought near 300 with expected return around 15 -20% per year.
DeleteDear Dolly maam, Happy Ganesh Chaturthi to you and your family. May god bless you and fulfil all your wishes. Thanks so much for all your stock recommendations and guidance.
ReplyDeleteHi mam, my question is how to participate in company concall?If someone wants to listen the management live without asking any questions can he do so? Can you explain the procedure? Thank you.
ReplyDeleteYes you can attend AGM, companies are inviting the shareholders in the Annual General Meeting (AGM) for discussion and decision.
DeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi ma'am
ReplyDeleteWish you a very happy ganesh chaturthi maam
ReplyDeleteVakra-Tunndda Maha-Kaaya Suurya-Kotti Samaprabha |
ReplyDeleteNirvighnam Kuru Me Deva Sarva-Kaaryessu Sarvadaa ||
Happy Ganesh Chaturthi mam
ReplyDeletewhen is the next stock reco Ma'm? Thank you very much
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi. God bless you and your family.
ReplyDeleteHAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI!
ReplyDeleteHappy GANESH CHATURTHI Mam...
ReplyDeleteHappy Gatesh chaturthi to u and all members of your family. May God bless you with good health, wealth and prosperity.
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi, wishes for a brighter future and good health Dolly ji.
ReplyDeleteDear Mam,
ReplyDeleteWhich valuation method do you follow - DCF, Relative valuation or Asset based valuation ?
Also, when will the results of KCP and Kesoram be out ?
Product and its demand is the key criteria for stock selection
DeleteResult update for KCP and Kesoram
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/f2d18849-bfe2-4c6c-878d-f041a3a75348.pdf
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/b69492ff-929d-4727-8bd8-3fd81ad20084.pdf
Same to u mam.😊
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesha chathurthy mam
ReplyDeleteThank you and wish you the same
ReplyDeleteHAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI.......
ReplyDeleteMa'm regarding OMKAR/ LASA...when Lasa lists...will Omkar and Lasa give different returns over 3 years, or both same? From your analysis it looked like Lasa has better potential. Thanks
ReplyDeleteNo separate target for Omkar or Lasa. Expected return on initial investment ( before demerger) is around 300% in 4 years
DeleteGood morning mam...can we make new investments in Omkar for target of 300% in 4 years???
DeleteHAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI MAM........✌️
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi to
ReplyDeleteYou Family Members Blog Followers
Hi Mam,
ReplyDeleteWhen will you sharing your next rexommendations of stock?
Most probably next stock will be posted in the month of October.
DeleteThank you and wish you the same
ReplyDeletehappy Ganesh chaturthi
ReplyDeleteDid you attend ABFRL AGM ? i am not able to find its annual report
No
DeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturti.
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh chaturti mam.
ReplyDeleteMam your views on trident and it's result? I'm holding from 70 level, can I add more on dips?
It is good stock , you can continue to hold it for long term but not advisable to buy at cmp
DeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi
ReplyDeleteHappy GANESH Chaturthi to you and your family...🙏🙏
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi Maam. May god bless you with long life and happiness. Always thankful for your guidance.
ReplyDeleteWish you happy Ganesh chaturthi you and your family members.now a days every one is thinking selfish,but you are doing great service for small investors with out expecting single rupee.Long live madem
ReplyDeleteOn the occasion of our Jain Religious Festival Paryushan,
ReplyDeleteI sincerely apologize 'mam' and all followers for my post's acts & deeds which may have hurt your feelings by our thoughts, words or conduct. Man Vachan Kaya se "Michhami Dukkadam."
Vineeth Jain Anchalia
Wish you too madam , Thank you
ReplyDeleteCan buy pennar ind at cmp
ReplyDeletemam ur views on meghmani organics and heg at cmp
ReplyDeleteGreetings Madam,
ReplyDeleteThank for your greetings and prayers madam. We are blessed to have a guide like you in our investment journey.
Wishing you and your family a very happy Ganesh Chaturthi, Abundance and Good Health!
Thanks and Regards,
D. Viswambharan
Hi mam,a basic question. When someone buy a stock in initial level and then the story unfolds,and he accumulate more and stay invested long term till the price reachs to it's target. Question is, is there any wrong understanding to this investment hypothesis? e.g in case of talbros i bought at Ur recommended price, it is up 90%, now the story unfolds, latest biggest order win,mngmt concall, vision 2020, operating leverage, etc... Being a long term investor Can we accumulate more and stay invested for another 2 to 3 years.
ReplyDeleteWhen confidence gets increased don't you think it is right way to serious wealth creation.
When I go through some legendary investors book they did the same thing e.g Warren buffet in early 1970 did the same thing, accumulated coca-cola at different price brand and still holding on.
The same theory is applicable to jk agri, pushkar, waterbase etc. these companies are still microcap. Great growth opportunities lying ahead of them.
Ur view on this please . Much appreciated. Any blog follower comments is also welcome.
Warren Buffett probably knew the company and the business inside out,probably a lot more than the people managing it .
DeleteWe will be better off to remember his 1st cardinal rule, PROTECT UR CAPITAL
Better to buy the stocks which are trading near to the suggested price instead of chasing the old recommendation at 100% above suggested price. We have new stock suggestion almost every second month then no point to buy the stocks at higher price.
DeleteHigher entry level will increase the significant risk on investment in case of market correction or change in fundamental of any stock. It also depend upon risk profile of individual investors. Most of the new investors are very sensitive to the market correction so we don't want any risk on our investment. If we able to protect our investment then good gain is certain.
Mam is giving open questions for exam. If you only read the open question you will get 100%. In other words, if you buy any stocks from this blog at suggested price we all know we higher percentage of return. I am strictly following buying price and my portfolio is not in red.
DeleteSame to you and your family
ReplyDeleteHappy ganesh chaturthi to u and your family.
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi !!
ReplyDeleteOm Ganeshaya Namah
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh chaturthi mam.
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh chaturthi to u and ur family, may lord bless u with his choicest blessings
ReplyDeleteMam, I want to invest 3 lac in stock market for 4 to 5 years, So pls suggest me some good stock for my portfolio they will give 300 to 400% return. Thanks
ReplyDeleteYou can add Kesoram, Orient paper and KCP at cmp. Pennar Ind also can be added in case of further correction below 51.
DeleteVery Happy Ganesh Chaturthy Madam Dolly Khanna ! Thank You for your lovely Wishes ! Lord Ganesha bless us all !! Festive Greetings🙏🙏
ReplyDeleteGanapati bappa morya, may God bless you with more prosperity, peace and good health. Mam, PL give your views on gulf oil lubricant
ReplyDeleteGulf oil lubricant is good stock for long term investment with expected return around 15% per year
DeleteHello mam, any reason of recent fall in TCI? Can I add more?
ReplyDeleteBecause it gone up very fast from 150 to 350 so some correction is normal. Not advisable to buy at cmp
DeleteThank you madam, There is no words to thank you for your effort on running this blog, Buying the recommended stocks slowly on dips.
ReplyDeleteHappy vinayaka chavithi
ReplyDeleteMam, you keep on recommending 8-10 stocks yearly, so how can you manage monitoring all the fundamentals in several stocks, do you do alone or have team? how can you do it? is it possible for single person all these, like educating people through blog and finding new stock and still monitoring all the stock which you recommend here, hats or for your knowledge and kind ness to the society.
ReplyDeleteIt is only possible because of love and passion for this work. Some time I am getting the help of few family members for graphic while new stock posting.
DeleteGreat thinking mam... I dont think i am even eligible to compliment you :)
DeleteMr unknown, madam has to monitor stocks not only you said, she will be monitoring stocks in her portfolio, watch list stocks(research for new good socks to post in the blog)and madam is answering to evry question or doubt raising in this blog. It will be more time taking for mam to handle all this, we atleast stop asking repeated questions. Thank you Dolly mam for your dedication towards small investors like us.
DeleteGreat, thank you mam.
DeleteRespected madam, I want to invest approx 10 lakh,which strategy better to me either purchase kcp, kesoram and orient paper of whall amount or part of amount for three stack and remaining amount for future stock like lasa and stock most probably given in month of October.
ReplyDeleteYou can allocate 20% in each stock Orient Paper, KCP and Kesoram. I was good if you decided it last week during market correction, even Pennar Ind was in good buying range below 50.
DeleteDear Madam,
ReplyDeleteDoes compounding applies to our portfolio stocks investment, if yes what would be the compounding avg return on our stocks.
Around 35 -45%
DeleteHappy Ganesha Chaturthi Mam
ReplyDeleteFestive greetings to all we friends and dear mam and lot more...
ReplyDeleteStart of festive season would definitely bring lot of happiness in our life for long term...
Happy Ganesh chaturthi mam. Had a question regarding Orient electric. Bajaj electric which is a competitor of orient electric trades at less than 1 times sales. I might have missed something here but just wanted to know because other competitors like havells & cmropton greaves consumer are trading at more than 3 times sales. Orient electric also has sales of ~1300 crores and PAT of 40 crores. What target do you expect for orient electric after demerger. Also, one more thing profit margins of bajaj electrical are less than 5%. revenues is ~4200 crores PAT is 107 crores so profit margin are less than 3%. Could you please help us understand how can a company operate at such low margins & is this a reason company is trading at such valuations. If that's the case than don't you think there is not much scope of appreciation for orient electric. I know I am missing something here could you please enlighten me that would be great. Further, Crompton Greaves & havells have much better margins & is it the reason for much better valuation than bajaj electrical. I had purchased TCI, ABFRL & Pennar industries on your recommendation. Thanks for that.
ReplyDeleteBetter to compare Orient Electric with any company after one year of listing, once the price of both stocks will get stabilized. Because price of both stocks should be taken into consideration while comparing it with any peers.
DeleteOur target is not separate for paper and electrical business but it is combined on pre demerger investment.
With such think margins how can we expect Orient to trade at more than 1x sales ma'am? Also I'm sure the company must have some debt levels, or is all debt held by paper business? Because if electrical business is debt free then margin will shoot up..
DeleteMam can I buy alkali metal at cmp .
ReplyDeleteI know its nearly 20% up from recommended price but since its more than a year it is recommended so time taken to reach 300-500% could be lesser
No change in previous view for Alkali metal. With few good quarterly result it will reach to our target.
DeleteMadam,
ReplyDeleteafter correction in price,could you please share your thought on Uniply Industries. Per product demand in future whether one should buy this in current price or not.
Sorry not tracking it
DeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi Mam and all friends
ReplyDeleteJubilent Industries has been corrected significantly from 400 to 220. Would you like to comment upon that? Is there any chances of quick recovery from cmp? I have entered @190 a while back.
You can continue to hold it for decent gain in coming quarters.
DeleteDolly mam,
ReplyDeleteShould we continue to hold Surana Solar or swap that with Suzlon? Your advice is required. Thanks.
Sorry not tracking Suzlon but no change in previous view for Surana Solar
Deletehttps://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2017/07/update-on-surana-solar-and-next-stock.html
What the terms "Operating Profit per Share" & "Net Operating Profit per Share" Shows. Is it helpful for calculating value of any stock ?.
ReplyDeleteSorry I have not used such calculation for deciding any stock
DeleteAsked u about yesterday Alkali Metal and its 20% up today....what bad luck
ReplyDeleteIt looks like your comment has drawn the attention of some investors. Due to low equity it can reach to upper circuit even with very less trading volume. Average 4 - 5K blog page views per day so such possibilities cannot be ruled out.
DeleteHi Ma'am,
ReplyDeleteWhen can we expect the Orient demerger to materialise?
Before end of this year
DeleteLet me throw some light on KCP ltd for readers. Sugar crushing capacity will come on stream over FY18 this will show good jump in revenues and profits. Cement capacity will come on stream only in H2FY19 so we will re rating and huge upside only over FY19.
ReplyDeleteOrient will have to expand margins to get a better valuation. I think it is fair to assume that as product portfolio expands margins will also improve. Paper business is doing well. This stock can give 100% over next 3 years. I don't know if 300% is possible unless debt in electrical business is negligible and margins hit atleast 7-9% net. Otherwise it will trade at roughly 1.5x sales and paper biz will be valued at roughly 500cr giving us a combined valuation of around 2500-3000cr worst case. So virtually no downside on the pick. Pennar you can wait to enter at 50-55 levels. Kesoram I will not enter.
Better if you can read the blog and all links once again to realise to real potential of Orient Electric in next 4 -5 years.
Deletehttps://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2017/07/orient-paper-industries-switch-to-smart.html
Mr. Golf coach, seems that you have a good knowledge but I suggest you re-think on:
Delete1. Have you ever visited or spoke to any promotor or management of any listed co ?
2. Views which you are sharing seem to be negative- so you should have shared with supporting link ?
3. Kcp sugar is separate entity though same promotor, it's most diverse- and all companies are as old as cumulative of your and my age and internationally recognised and certified.
3. For Orient paper and Electric- just think once,if you & we can understand that co. Needs to develop premium margin products- for margin expansion- doesn't the bord members don't know-how actually they know better and they are already into. It's fan technology- brush less direct (BLDC), switchgear technology- snap disc bi-metal, it's franchise model, new entry into home appliances, online direct sales-orientelectricshop.com, detect bids for crores of Odders of led street light and railway station which was earlier dominated by players like Philips and many more changes have taken place. They have opened depos at almost every big city approx 200-300 km for better supply to its dealers.
4. Loan is not at all a problem for any co. Till it's in control.
5. Pennar you are saying we can wait to enter- I must say it has given 40% return from suggest price , when people are already invested and still you say to wait. All members know that it has given a breakout after years due to a very good result.
5. Kesoram limited- all time greatest investor also regretted that he dint invest in Amazon- Warren buffet..!! So deciding not to invest is your choice but my view is that co has a solid potential to become a 4 digit stock- to know the reason you try read blog of kesoram again and for even more information you need to visit the co and understand it's potential.
Any idea or views on the Sunflag iron.
ReplyDeleteHappy Ganesh Chaturthi to you and your family please, God bless us all.
Sorry not tracking Sunflag iron.
DeleteDear Mam, pls provide ur view on GTL infra & ducon infra. Request u to pls research if you aren't tracking them
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking GTL infra & ducon infra
DeleteHello Dolly Ji, Have been reading few forums and key take away from all of them is the demand for cement as a commodity to go up significantly in the future, I believe the rationale of investment in Kesoram, KCP for a period of 3-4 years is on those lines.
ReplyDeleteIs that a right way to interpret your recommendations on the above two stock in particular.
Apart from cement business both companies are having very strong growth possibilities in remaining ( other than cement) business.
DeleteGreetings Madam,
ReplyDeleteCould you please share your thoughts on what the listing price for Orient Electric
Thanks and Regards,
D. Viswambharan
Generally any stock after demerger will list at lower price and it will move up gradually within next one year so we should not much concerned about listing price of Lasa or Orient Electric. Just have look on TCI Express and Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical to get the rough idea about price movement after listing.
DeleteGreetings Madam,
DeleteThank you for your guidance as always madam. Will look at TCI Exp and CGCE to understand your point better.
Thanks and Regards,
D. Viswambharan
Dear mam, i am new to share market, my view may be silly, you said that the price will be lower while demerger takes place, then why should we buy now, we can buy after demerger itself na?
DeleteBut it will be 30 -40% higher than suggested price or demerged price. You have not seen properly the listing price of TCI Express and Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical before posting this comment
DeleteMam, yours views on JK paper?
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking it
Deletemadam do u track vivid global?
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking Vivid Global
DeleteMa'm any view on apex frozen food??
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking it
DeleteHi Mam
ReplyDeleteAny dates on lasa listing....
Thanks
Naveen
No update after below on 21.08.2017
Deletehttp://www.lasalabs.com/cs-pdf/NSE-In-Principal-Approval-for-Listing.pdf
Dear Mam, pls let us know the cutoff date in orient paper regarding demerger of orient electric. Also pls let us know why the result of rswm isn't so good
ReplyDeleteStill no update on demerger
DeleteRSWM Q1 result is weak due to fall in sales revenue and increase expenditure
Hearing date Oct 11, 2017. Hope to get it cleared.
Deleteyes
DeleteMadam any suggestions on RBL Bank, Federal Bank, Relaxo Footwears and Arvind Ltd.?
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking any of the above stocks
DeleteDoklam issue is settled now, but north Korea issue rised up after missile test causing global market going down, is this also a temporary matter and can we seen at good buying opportunity or something worst is yet to come.
ReplyDeleteYes, this month has already given 2 -3 good opportunities to buy the stocks at lower level. has
DeleteRespected madam i bought FSL and Trident at the level of 37 and 84 . I want to hold for 2 to 3 years .. should i hold madam ?? Kindly reply madam
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking FSL
DeleteYou can hold Trident with expected return around 15% per year but not advisable to buy at cmp
Hello Mam are u tacking cg power is it good time to invest this stock & Honda siel power
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking any of the above stocks
DeleteDai-lichi karkarya is 400/-Me lena chahiye KY please suggest
ReplyDeleteNot advisable to buy at cmp
DeleteMadam, I need to invest now. Please advise any good stock which I can invest now for 1-2 year for good returns.
DeleteOrient Paper, KCP and Kesoram Ind
DeleteDear Blog Owner. According to your estimates, what is fair value for Omkar de-merged? I am trying to work on it considering the debt.. what value to assign as of today? or to let it be for 1-2 years and let the story develop. As always, await your valued advise.
ReplyDeleteIn current situation market will not give it higher valuation, we can expect significant price appreciation once both companies start operating with consistent growth and financial stability.
DeleteThank you.
DeleteMadam.
ReplyDeleteAny special news with alkali metals.rising with heavy volumes?
Thanx
No update on such news
DeleteAny idea for the Vardhman Speciality steels, Nitin Casting and Agri Tech.
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking any of the above stocks
Deletecan we enter Nahar Enterprises at cmp? Expected returns maam? by when do you see it starts moving up?
ReplyDeleteIt can be bought with expected return around 15% per year.
Deletehello any advise on motilal oswal mrf and maruti I am planning to hold for next 6 months
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking any of the above stocks
DeleteChemfab alkali 265/me inveat Kat sakte hai ky mam please suggest
ReplyDeleteNot advisable to buy at cmp.
Deletedear Madam, Alkali metals have risen almost 50% in last three days what might be the reason. Will it continue the good run now.
ReplyDeletePeople are buying it for short term gain, not advisable to buy at cmp
Deletehttp://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/9eb38c0c-5498-4059-a4e0-5c15f23d73c2.pdf
ReplyDeleteMam
ReplyDeleteAny news wrt alkali metals? Significant price was there for the past 3 days.
No update on any price sensitive news
DeleteDear mam,
ReplyDeleteI want to know your views on zee learn.
Last 5 years constantly growing there sales and also eps.
It has not at all performed in this bull run due to tree house problem but now they have called of the merger..Is it a good buy at current level?
Can we trust the management?
Rgds
Rajesh
Sorry not tracking Zee learn. Management is fairly good enough to be trusted.
DeleteMadam, Dhunseri tea sales dropped to 22 crores compared to 33 crores during june 2016. Is it a matter of concern. Also some where i read in your replies that pondy oxide can reach 1000. Does it have potential and should we hold it. I had planned to sell completely at around 550 as per your earlier advise.
ReplyDeletePondy oxide has already achieved the target and neutral at cmp. My reply was specifically for that question only and not advisable to buy at cmp
DeleteGenerally Q4 and Q1 are weak quarter for tea producing companies, long term view is good
Hello mam, Xpro is still struggling around 47-50 levels. Is it advisable to add more?
ReplyDeleteIt can be bought below 33 in case of further correction.
DeleteMadam, please through some light on the demerger of CESC please.
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking CESC
DeleteOrient Paper has informed BSE that;
ReplyDeleteThis is to inform you that in respect of the petition filed by the Company for sanction of the Scheme of Arrangement between Orient Paper & Industries Limited ('Demerged Company') and Orient Electric Limited ('Resulting Company'), the National Company Law Tribunal, Kolkata bench by its Order dated 18th August 2017 has fixed the date of hearing of the petition for the approval of the scheme on 11.10.2017. In terms of the said Order, notice of hearing before the Kolkata bench of the National Company Law Tribunal on 11th October 2017 has been advertised in the 'Business Standard' in English and in the 'Orissa Bhaskar' in Oriya on Wednesday, the 30th day of August 2017. Scanned copies of the said publications are attached.
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/8ddd2775-42af-4b58-89ba-1f27593ada45.pdf
ReplyDeleteGuys most of the doubts are clearly answered ..one go through atleast first 8-9 pages.
ReplyDeleteWhat's buzzing in alkali metalics..... Sm1 says 10yr breakout ll reach 400in 6 month.... Yr view mam....
ReplyDeleteNo change in previous view for Alkali Metals. Continue to hold for further gain but not advisable to buy it at cmp.
DeleteHello mam
ReplyDeleteHave been really benefited by your recommendation of tci, shree pushkar , talbros. Thanks a ton
Abfrl have purchased @ RS 155.00. Since a year. Your views for the same or recommend to new suggestions
Thanks
You can continue to hold ABFRL as it is for further gain in long term.
DeleteDear Madam,
ReplyDeleteDTIL result is out, Kindly advice us whether shall we keep continue to hold this script or should we sell, again DTIL has offloaded one of its subsidiary, Please give your comment on this both developments.
Generally Q4 and Q1 are weak quarter for tea producing companies, long term view is good. Disposing off (Elfin Heights Private Limited) non core business is also good decision.
DeleteMam.
ReplyDeleteWhat is this new message.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/orient-paper-newspaper-publication-8630621.html
It is public disclosure requirement under listing obligations and disclosure requirements regulations 2015
DeleteMam, I want to buy RSWM @255-275 in case of further correction with the expatiation of at least 25%-30% CAGR for next 4-5 years.
ReplyDeletePlease give your valuable advice.
Thanks.
You can buy it on above price with expected CAGR around 10 -15 %
DeleteMadam good morning.I have bought pennant industries 200 shares@46.I want to stay invested in this for at least 5 years,so can I buy now at 65.can it reach 200 in that period.pls advice
ReplyDeleteIt was hovering around Rs 50 for quite sometime. Now it is 30% up....
DeleteMadam pls give me a Share which might hit 1000 in the next 5 years stocks which can be bought in the range 50 to 150.
ReplyDeleteNobody can predict a 10x But I can confidently tell you that KCP can become a 7x if all goes well and some huge re-rating jumps in. a 250cr bottom line which is a high probability at a 35 PE will give you a a roughly 8000cr market cap. So you can buy KCP and hopefully it will turn into a 10x if you are lucky. Otherwise Repro India have a new aggregation business like ola, uber you can bet on them if you are very lucky they could 10x. You could look at NESCO if all goes well in 2025 with re-rating they can go 10x. But these are all based mostly on luck, nobody can predict a 10x like that. And I'm there would be a blog post if such an opportunity was a certainty.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteM'am, is AksharChem good to enter at 710? it has come down from 900. What price range would you suggest to buy at? Thank you
ReplyDeleteMam, yours views on kcp result?
ReplyDeleteAmazing and as per expectations. Sugar business is going to be a huge kicker at the of the FY because they report only once a year and new capacity is operational. Keep adding on dips.
DeleteIn general will cement sector (kesoram) have effect of monsoon on this quarterly earnings? Being positive we should always expect positive result but just wanted to take your thought on whether cement is all year business or cyclical? Kesoram has been in a range of 130-170 long time, every time result not meeting expectation and it comes back to 140 or so. Is it not possible further protracted negligence by market on price of kesoram due to not meeting market expectation for long time?
ReplyDeleteEveryone has short term view on markets. Invest and forget until there is a fundamental change in the thesis/story.
DeleteKCP gave good results in Q1. NP quatrupled. Thanks for the reco.
ReplyDeleteHow is kcp results
ReplyDeleteAmazing. Stock will fly over next three years as new capacity comes in coupled with re-rating we may see a 5-7x if we are all lucky.
DeleteIm a regular reader of your blog..now i would like to be a follower of yours..im intrested in following you over surana solar..i have my own reasons for choosing that..what i want to know is..will it be a good idea if i make it as my highest allocation. please comment
ReplyDeleteSolar industry might be like the airline industry. Good for the country but not good for shareholder wealth creation. Price per unit has fallen more than 50% in last two years and it is heavily dependant on govt. Better to buy pennar etc: who are proxies on overall infra which will also ride on solar.
DeleteDear Mam,
ReplyDeleteKCP results look extraordinary...almost seem too good to be true! The performance can be attributed to the excellent growth in the Cement business. Is it a one time performance or do you think the turnaround and re-rating in the stock has begun? Can we see continued rise in performance in the coming quarters too? Request your views on it.
Thank you.
You will see continuous rise in revenue because KCP has new capacity coming in 2019 and fresh capacity fro sugar in vietnam has already started production this will be captured at the end of the FY since results are shown only once a year for that.
DeleteDear mam,
ReplyDeleteDear mam i posted my query about omkar speciality annual report.
Your name is not there in top ten shareholders?
Do you have a very small exposure to it?
you can even reply me on goelexport@gmail.com
One more question mam today kcp june qtr results were outstanding..thanks for the wonderful pick..do you expect to continue the trend even in coming qtrs.
Rgds
Rajesh
Mam
ReplyDeleteMailed my portfolio. Pls share your views