Saturday, July 28, 2018

Update on market correction and next stock



Dear Blog Members,


We have seen very severe correction in small and mid cap stocks in last two months. It has taken really very tough test of our patience. Several blog members were very nervous and asking about 20 -30% correction in total portfolio or 30 -40%  correction specific stocks which has triggered 30% stop loss as mentioned in our previous post  on  May 6, 2018 

Review of Investment Strategy


https://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2018/05/review-of-investment-strategy.html


In fact we have gone with 30% stop loss strategy to protect our principal investment in case of extreme correction but none of the past 3 calendar year portfolios have breached the given limit. Recent 2018 suggested stocks like Nitin Spinners, Ganesh Housing and Sintex Plastic corrected more than 30% from suggested price. It is not only our blog suggested stocks but complete small and mid cap sector corrected beyond expectation. We are in much better shape if we look at the below statistic of  4000 small and mid cap listed stocks 


Around 800 stocks corrected more than 70%

Around 1500 stocks corrected more than 50%

Around 1500 stocks corrected more than 40%

Around 150 stocks corrected in between 20 - 40%

Around 50% of BSE 500 index stocks had corrected in excess of 50%.


Even though yesterday Sensex closed at all-time highs 37336 points but thousands of stocks are still trading at very low price. It is one of the best long-term value buying opportunity available in last 5 years. 


Next stock will be posted on 03 August 2018 (Friday  after market hours).


So far Q1 results and economic data are very encouraging that our economy is growing at good pace. Sooner or later our stocks are going to make very strong recovery. Need to stay invested with full confidence in yourself, in stock market and in our economy. 



137 comments:

  1. Thank u mam for your precious view.this will strengthen our psycology to stay calm in bad time.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Always you gave confidence and thanks to my stars I was never panicked and not sold single share rather added some stocks like sintex plastic.
    You are guiding with your own experience hence I just follow your words of wisdom.
    Thanks again for positive post .
    Take Care Madam ! Godspeed.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Do we still need to hold Kesoram, Nitin, Ganesh and Sintex plastics?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Shall i buy Sintex plastic stocks ...? or wait for more correction ?

      Delete
    2. It was already trading at 30 for several days

      Delete
  4. Maam, i dont have any cash left for your next recommendation, would you suggest me to sell ABFRL@cost and switch to your new recommendation or remaining tci and tci exp shares can be swaped with new recommendation.pls advice.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is not necessary to buy every stock, you can continue to hold your existing stocks as it is.

      Delete
  5. Thanks a lot mam for great effort.and encouraging words

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thanks man for great effort and encouragement

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thank you so much madam being with us during these tough time. May Almighty bless you and your family.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thanks for your guidance Ma’m.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Stock markets are the forrunners of economy . But it also works on all kinds of sentiments . Madam has been working very hard to guide us through real opportunities in it .I am following you for the last six months .For the first time I felt that there are opportunities of investing in a stock knowing almost every thing about it. Thanks a lot for your great service . May Good God bestow with all blessings .
    Anto

    ReplyDelete
  10. Bangladesh which is one of largest exporter of textiles will no longer get a preferred status and will be classified along with other asian countries and an import duty will be levied from sept 2018. This is expected to boost indian textiles co exporting yarn / fabrics and garments. Also govt proposing to reintroduce duty drawback soon. This double boost should help blog stock Nitin spinners a great deal. Pls let us have your views

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes slowly and steadily Indian companies are strengthening their positions.

      In fact, illegal and very poor working condition in Bangladeshi companies are exposed around the world. Low labor cost was the root cause for giving preference to these companies but now their government is also pushing to improve the working condition and follow the rules and regulation.

      Delete
  11. I am fowiwing U for the last six months . You are doing a great service for novices like me to understand a stock before investing in it. I understand that stock market is the front runner of economy but with a lot of sentiments attached to it. Ifeel confident in Ur recommendations and is thankful for them . God bless You!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Thanks a lot mam. I have bought all others stock except GP petro, Is it right thing to add now to my portfolio along with next stock which you will be suggesting next week..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can increase allocation in existing stocks and add next stock

      Delete
  13. Mam namaste I had never seen this much of pain in the market I had pour my entire saving in the market but it is more than 30% corrected I am fallowing your blog since last two year come to the markets there is no liquidity in market and also there is no DII are investig and FII are moving out lot of pain is over in small and mid caps when there is markets are all time high if markets start falling from highs how we can expect another six to twelve month of this market can we exit or hold or buy pls suggest madam

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you want to remain in this business then you must always stay invested because most of the time stock market will not give you time to re-enter again.

      Delete
    2. PRECIOUS GUIDANCE FOR CONFIDENCE BUILDING.HATS OFF U MAM.

      Delete
  14. Thanks madam for the update...your words are biggest positive and moral support for us. We are patiently waiting to see our stocks to fly high

    ReplyDelete
  15. Mam thanks for your right suggestion. Can I accumulate your recommended stock at camp. Please. Suggest me.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thanks you for the update and positive reinforcement, portfolio down by about 30% but continue to keep faith in the stocks held & not selling a single share, convinced on the long run India story and patiently hoping for a turnaround. Presume it is a good time to start averaging and from this perspective, could you please recommend/ advice the sensible option to average from a 3 year perspective out of Kesoram, Gati & Nitin Spinners..Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can buy all above three stocks at CMP along with next stock. These stocks will give very good return in coming years

      Delete
    2. Mam, Hope you already went through it https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/04F5582C_BDEE_4811_A943_3974989E42F8_174222.pdf

      Looks like Kesoram Management is taking minority share holders for a ride :(

      Delete
    3. Above reply to stock exchanges is just for damage control but final out come of this whole episode will be very positive for company as well as for minority share holders.

      Delete
  17. Thank you so much for your valuable suggestions. It gives us more confidence . Thanks lot mam

    ReplyDelete
  18. I'm holding Nandan Denim@140. Do I need to exit and buy your new recommendation or continue holding it?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to stick with investment decision for at least 2-3 years. Stock prices will recover in coming quarters.

      Delete
  19. Dolly Mam,

    There is news that Gati Ltd might be taken over by TVS Logistics ltd. Is this a good news?Please advice.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes company has already given update on April 26, 2018, that it is looking for Strategic or financial Partner to expand the business

      Delete
  20. Ma'am, I am holding sintex and can hold for 3 or more years.Please let me know if it still has value and i will average it. Thank you for all your work!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you are talking about Sintex plastic then you can give 10 to 20% allocation in it and continue to hold for long term.

      Delete
  21. Hi mam, Pennar Industries and Jubliant Industries is not in my portfolio. Can I add this, given it is currently in your recommended range ? Also, Can I add Deepak nitrite (not in my portfolio) if the price drop below 220 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can buy above three stocks within given price range.

      Delete
  22. Dear madam your view on dwarikesh, kitex, rain, federal and kiri please

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All are good stocks, you can continue to hold but not advisable to buy at CMP

      Delete
    2. i am holoding all these mentioned stacks with huge loss except rain and kiri can i do avg. thank you very much for your kind reply and for new gem.

      Delete
  23. Madam is it better to buy penpebs rather than penind due to 23:12 merger ratio.?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it is better to buy it if the merger deal goes through successfully

      Delete
  24. HI Mam, Thanks for the update and we are eagerly waiting for you next recommendation. Also, your opinion on AB capital. I found Net sale per share of AB capital is only just near to Rs. 1 which is very very less. Where as its competitors are many times higher. so, please have your opinion on this ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AB capital is good stock and you have to look only consolidated result for it because every business run through separate subsidiary company

      Delete
  25. Hello mam, TVS logistic is planning to buy gati in 1500 cr. Is there any advantage or disadvantage for minority retail investers ?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Thanks for the update mam.

    I have a question about booking profit when the orient paper and orient electric give 100% return (combined).

    Will you recommend that we sell Orient paper or orient electric or 50% from both when the total value of these two shares is at Rs 190+ (2x the recommended price) ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Better to book the profit in both stocks and keep the free of cost share for both companies.

      Delete
  27. Mam...I haven't sold omkar and lasa yet
    .Bought it when omkar was 160..Now the stock is showing some movement...Is it the time to sell and get out of lasa and omkar or hold it assuming the share will be back

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both stocks already lost most of its value so you can continue to hold as it is for further gain

      Delete
  28. Madam- what is your view on below points-

    1. When can we expect Kesoram Tyre Business to be monetized?
    2. Is Kumar Mangalam Birla join the Board to keep Kesoram in good shape ?

    Thanks,
    Himanshu

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hopefully within 3 to 4 years
      KM Birla already hold the controlling stake in this company.

      Delete
  29. And those words has given so much confidence for us- the new investors. Thank you madam.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Mam ,gati acquisition by Tvs logistics?
    This news is bad or good for us.mam I have 300 share and last mam I have no words for you Ur great🙏

    ReplyDelete
  31. Mam, in guise of investing, I was trading. When I look back, I was indulging in more of a gambling than trading. I had subscribed many services, however exorbitant their service charges may be. There is no denying the fact that many of the recommendations performed after I exited on hitting stop losses. By the grace of God, I came across your blog by the end of 2017. I followed you very keenly and acted according to your recommendations. I am still at loss. However, I suffer loss with a difference, the difference that is called passing phase. I have been convinced that one day I shall reap the fruits for silently following you with patience. What is important is that one ought to get return on ones investment. What is more important for me is that I have learnt a lesson, a priceless one that I could survive the turbulence and that I am cultured to become an investor. Words cannot express my gratefulness to you. I am really indebted to you, Mam. May all good things happen to you and your dear ones always and ever.

    ReplyDelete
  32. TVS Logistics in talks to acquire Gati for Rs 1,500 crore

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/shipping-/-transport/tvs-logistics-in-talks-to-acquire-gati-for-rs-1500-crore/articleshow/65191307.cms

    ReplyDelete
  33. Thanks for the new blog posting mam... it's encourage our investments.

    ReplyDelete
  34. So it clearly describes company's each share is valued at 400 and co is valued at more than 6000 cr. ?

    ReplyDelete
  35. Mam, your view on kalahasthi pipe result and whether it can be bought at CMP?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is below expectation

      You can buy for long-term investment only with expected return around 10 to 15% per year

      Delete
  36. Thanks for your take on recent corrections and giving us the guidance on how to go about our long term investment s,madam would also really appreciate your take on sripipes latest result and can I average more as I have already averaged at 190 levels recently as suggested by you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is below expectation.

      If you have already averaged it at 190 and your allocation is 10% then you can continue hold as it is. Prefer next stock which is having much better future then it.

      Delete
  37. News on TVS Logistics looking to acquire Gati

    Company has already given update on 26 April that management is looking for strategic investor or partner for future growth of this company. Definitely after settling the FCCBs issue with Goldman Sachs, company management is seriously looking for future growth. Deal with TVS Logistic or any other company is still not finalized so company unable to disclose it but company has accepted the fact with the above reference. We can expect some positive outcome in coming months, need to stay invested.


    https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/86B80153_8EFF_4423_B4EB_D11743FEE550_143913.pdf


    https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/90863a90-97f6-42f6-9f19-103d8132d44c.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  38. Man what should be fair value or enterprise value of granules india..future outlook is looking very promising can this stock go to 200 by 2019 March ?
    As both joint ventures ( with 50% ratio )in US will give min net profit of 40 + 40 cr and about 4 + 2 more drugs are about to launch other than that co will market there own products ..since last many years co is griwing at cagr of 20-25%..now far ahead from USFDA ISSUES and raw material procurement is also at best price !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have never invested in any stock based on enterprise value. Granules India is having very good product portfolio and it good for long term investment. It may or may not touch 200 by March 2019 but it will definitely give consistent return around 15% per year.

      Delete
  39. Hello mam,
    I'm holding shares of a debted company. Recently, one of its many lender has transferred the bad loan to an asset restructuring company. Is it good or bad news for minority shareholders? What should I do as it is difficult to track restructuring process? Please guide me.
    I feel minority shareholder are at loss in IBC cases.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. It is bad news for investors because company unable to pay its debts on time and it keep on mounting. It is good news for retail investor that the company is going through debt restructuring, it gives some hope for the survival to the company.

      Delete
  40. Dear Mam
    India imposes anti dumping duty on solar panels. How do you read this in context of surana solar.

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/07/30/india-imposes-safeguard-duty-on-solar-cells-imported-from-china-malaysia#gs.O4ADR80

    Regards
    Ajay

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it is very good news for domestic solar panel manufacturers. If you have already shares of Surana solar than you can continue to hold it but not advisable to buy at CMP

      Delete
  41. Hello ma’am im holding technocraft from 185 level . Can i book some profit and reinvest in other blog suggested share or better to stick with the investment . Pls advice i can hold for some more thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you already holding free of cost share then you can continue to hold it

      Delete
  42. Good Evening Madam ! Today Sintext Plastic was all over again I have to thank you for going ahead to add more which I did ! Big Thank You once again.
    Godspeed .

    ReplyDelete
  43. Hi Madam I am holidng Kesar petro,Daikkafil Chemical and Vakrangee. Can your pls give you views on it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking any of the above mentioned stocks

      Delete
  44. Thanks for positive long term outlook to build up confidance

    ReplyDelete
  45. Dear Mam, do you have any opinion on Advanced enzyme, Suven life and Majesco. Also our next blog stock is from which sector.?
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking any of the above mentioned stocks. Some stocks are shortlisted from different sectors like infra, steel, building materials, packaging, chemicals, we will finalise it based on closing price on Friday

      Delete
  46. madam recently i received 10 lakhs rupees after maturing of my PPF account. this is my 15 years accumulated amount. kindly suggest me on which stock i have to invest. thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can invest in all 2018 suggested stocks and next stock. Need to buy the stock within 10% from suggested price. It was good if you have received this fund few weeks before because most of stock price had gone up 10-15% in last one week

      Delete
  47. Mam
    Your view on ABFRL and KCP results

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both companies have posted good result, You can continue to hold for further gain in coming quarters

      Delete
  48. Man..plz give a hint on which sector is your next stock..and if it's cmp is below 30 or above 30 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TPL Plastech - It is from industrial packaging segment and it is trading near 300

      Delete
    2. Perfect reply at perfect time 🤣

      Delete
  49. Both companies have posted very good result, you can continue to hold both stocks for further gain in coming quarters

    ReplyDelete
  50. Thank you madam for your update on the scenario. We are waiting for the upcoming one.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Like this blog. Thank you so much for your valuable suggestions Mam. It gives us more confidence .Bookmarked this page, will wait for Next Post..

    ReplyDelete
  52. Dear Maam, I have a query on companies like Alok Industries and Bhushan Steel which are under IBC.

    Both these companies are being acquired by larger companies through bidding and as a result the debt on their books will reduced drasticallly

    Are these companies a good investment opportunity with their prices being so low, debt almost going out of their books, new management coming in and huge asset and clientele available at their disposal.

    Please guide in understanding how these stocks would react or move or would there be an opportunity?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry not tracking any of the above mentioned companies. It is better to invest in good company and have peace of mind.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for your patience ,u r replying every question almost.but the above answer is golden words.every one don't forget those words.once again thanks

      Delete
  53. Good afternoon Madam ji !
    ABFRL performance today is just specatacspe went upto 180 ! Thanks again ! God Bless all

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Company has posted very good result with good growth in every segment. Market has taken it very positive and if company able to give consistent results in coming quarters then stock will get re-rated. Need to hold it for long-term with patience

      Delete
  54. mam
    whats your view on stl global?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Hi mam, can I invest in surana solar ... ? What is your view now after govt measure to put impose on import duty on imported solar modules ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is very positive for domestic solar manufacturer and Sarana solar but it is not advisable to buy at CMP

      Delete
  56. Namaste madam, please comment on jublient industries.i am interested to fresh buy in this script.is it good decision or can u recommend any stock in previous recommendations

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes you can buy it for long-term investment, sooner or later it will make huge turnaround

      Delete
  57. Kesoram up for demerger. Is it postive for shareholders?!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. oh, is there any such news? Can you please share the link for for benefit of the blog members?

      Delete
    2. Just talking about the intentions they have... Aa discussed in latest call.

      Delete
    3. There is no official update available with company

      Delete
  58. Hello mam
    Your views for surana solar after implementation of anti dumping duty.
    Is it a buy or hold or sell on rise
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is very positive for Surana solar you can continue to hold it for further gain but it is not advisable to buy at CMP

      Delete
  59. Hello ma'am
    If you can update on TCI and TCI express results

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. Result for both companies are very good, now little bit benefit of GST start appearing in results. You can continue to hold both stocks for much better return in coming years

      Delete
  60. Mam your views on philips carbon black and thirumalai chemicals if tracking??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bus stocks are very good you can continue to hold for long-term

      Delete
  61. Is it a good idea to hold Rain industry ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can continue to hold it but it is not advisable to buy at CMP

      Delete
  62. Dear Maam,

    Pls share your views on Deepak Results?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is very good and company has given an update that new phenol plant is going to start within this month. You can continue to hold it for decent return in future

      Delete
  63. Mam ur view on Cosmos and Jindal Poly Film..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cosmo film is good stock to buy on further correction. Not tracking other stock

      Delete
  64. Mam , What to do with Surana Solar ? Continue to hold

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can continue to hold it for further gain

      Delete
  65. *spectacular, sorry for typo
    ABFRL since 2017 ...worth a hold.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it is just started giving positive result and future is very bright for the stock. You can continue to hold the stock for long-term. It will give consistent return and stability to your portfolio

      Delete
  66. Mam
    Your view on Deepak Nitrite result!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Result is very good and company has given update that new plant is going to start within a month period so you can continue to hold it for a decent gain in coming quarters

      Delete
  67. deepak nitrite has posted marginal incr in NP QOQ. your view on result and update on plant start

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. Result is very good and company has given update that new plant is going to start within a month period so you can continue to hold it for a decent gain in coming quarters

      Delete
  68. Madam, your view on Deepak Nitrate results? Though Revenue is grown significantly, its PAT is almost flat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to compare the result year-on-year. EPS look like same because there is significant increase in equity-base due to preferential shares issued to raise the fund for new plant.

      Delete
  69. https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/754f794a-9dc1-42df-9f58-cbfd6f21aefe.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  70. Deepak nitrite plant to commissioned in this month

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it is very good news for Deepak nitrate investors, they are waiting with great patience from last six month for this update

      Delete
  71. Hello Mam,

    Do you track enkei wheels seems to be demerged from alicon castoloy and with japenese promoters have around 72% stake with small equity of 7 crs, is it worth buying at CMP of 400

    ReplyDelete
  72. Should we continue to hold Omkar speciality chemicals and Lasa at current levels, or exit is recommended.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Hello Mam,

    Why KCP came down so much. Is there any bad news? I am still holding it. Should i continue to hold?

    ReplyDelete
  74. Hi M'am, D0 you have any updates regarding Pennar Industries and Pebs merger and how will it impact pennar industries

    ReplyDelete
  75. I am thankful for this blog to gave me much knowledge regarding my area of work. I also want to make some addition on this platform which must be in knowledge of people who really in need. Thanks.
    micro cap stocks

    ReplyDelete
  76. Mam, not sure if I missed any blog on Lasa Sup. What is your guidance on it?

    ReplyDelete
  77. At what price Rain industries preferabbly to Buy!!!

    ReplyDelete