CMP = 438 |
Glenmark Life Sciences Ltd (GLS) operates in two business segment - APIs (generics and complex APIs) and Contract Development and Manufacturing Operations CDMO (including specialty). Glenmark Life is a R&D driven leading developer and manufacturer of high value non-commoditised active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in chronic therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular disease (CVS), central nervous system disease (CNS), pain management and diabetes. The company also manufactures and sells APIs for gastro-intestinal (GI) disorders, anti-infective (AI) and other therapeutic areas. GLS has strong market share in specialised APIs such as Telmisartan (anti-hypertensive), Atovaquone (anti-parasitic), Perindopril (anti-hypertensive), Teneligliptin (diabetes), Zonisamide (CNS) and Adapalene (dermatology).
GLS had a portfolio of 120 molecules globally and sold their APIs to 16 of the top 20 generic companies in the world. GSL serves its customers in multiple regions in India, North America, Europe, Latin America, Japan and the rest of the world. The CDMO business currently comprises of applying for and procuring permission to market products in regulated markets as well as contract manufacturing of APIs for utilisation by pharmaceutical companies to make formulations.
The company currently operate four multi-purpose manufacturing facilities located at Ankleshwar and Dahej in the state of Gujarat and Mohol and Kurkumbh in the state of Maharashtra, India with an aggregate annual total installed capacity of 765 KL as of March 31, 2022.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KE3l4LYgm8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ugu51X0V9G4
All plants have regulated by USFDA, PMDA, COFEPRIS, Health Canada, MFDS (Korea), EDQM, other European regulatory agencies and CDSCO for various inspections and audits periodically and it doesn’t have any warning letters or import alerts from such regulatory authorities for its plants.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/is-glenmark-life-sciences-another-divis-in-the-making-7204741.html
Investment Rationale
Leadership in Select High Value, Non-Commoditised APIs in Chronic Therapeutic Areas
GLS is a leading developer, manufacturer of select high value, non-commoditised APIs in chronic therapeutic areas, including CVS, CNS & pain management, diabetes etc. API portfolio of Glenmark Lifesciences is having 120 specialised and profitable products, including niche and technically complex molecules, which reflects their ability to branch into other high value products. The company has gradually built scale and reach in its API offerings through economies of scale in its manufacturing operations and a portfolio build-up which has enabled it to service new markets and explore new product and service offerings to the customers. The business positioning is strengthened by the service offerings across markets, which enables the GLS to act as a one-stop shop for pharmaceutical product companies.
The company work towards developing 8 to 10 molecules each year, which include both high value and high volume APIs. The future growth of these products is expected to remain stable due to the increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (including heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes and chronic lung disease), growing demand from the regulated markets for drugs indicated for hypertension, diabetes and cancer, and an ageing population.
As of March 31, 2022, company has filed 433 DMFs and CEPs across various major markets (i.e. United States, Europe, Japan, Russia, Brazil, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, China and Australia).
Strong Relationships with Leading Global Generic Companies
Over the years, GLS has established strong relationships with leading global generic pharmaceutical companies that have helped it to expand the product offerings and geographic reach. The company works with 16 of the 20 largest generic companies globally and the company enjoy a reputation of trust and reliability with such companies. The company has been able to build and strengthen its relationships with them on account of the strong brand equity, high quality products, R&D skills, knowledge of the regulatory environment in the markets where it supplies products and track record of manufacturing APIs at different scales at its facilities, which have been inspected/audited by Indian and key global regulatory bodies such as the USFDA, MHRA, Health Canada and PMDA Japan. As a result, the company has been able to maintain high customer loyalty with a high rate of repeat customers, approximately 70% of their customers are repeat customers. GLS have a long history with many of their key customers, including Glenmark Pharma, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Aurobindo Pharma, Krka and other companies which are global leader in generic pharmaceuticals and bio-similars.
Quality-Focused Compliant Manufacturing and R&D Infrastructure
Glenmark Lifesciences is maintaining highest standards of quality and process innovation in their R&D and manufacturing operations. It is critical to the brand image and maintenance of long-term relationships with the customers. GLS has consistently implementing GMPs across each of their manufacturing facilities, which are monitored by a comprehensive QMS encompassing all areas of business processes from R&D and raw material procurement to manufacturing to packaging and delivery. The Company focus on building quality into its products through compliance with global regulatory standards as well as compliance with local and state laws that encompass manufacturing regulations, environmental clearance norms and other statutory norms.
Glenmark Lifesciences currently operates through 4 facilities with an annual capacity of 765 KL. Since 2015, the company’s facilities have been subject to 38 inspections and audits by regulators including the USFDA, PMDA, COFEPRIS, Health Canada, MFDS (Korea), EDQM, other European regulatory agencies and CDSCO conducted on a periodic basis. Its facilities have also been subject to 432 inspections by customers during this period. It has maintained strong compliance and not received any warning letter or import alert till date. The manufacturing facilities at Ankleshwar and Dahej are certified ISO 14001:2015 and ISO 45001:2018 for environment management and occupational health and safety management systems.
Further, company focused on undertaking dedicated R&D in its existing products and in areas where there is significant growth potential. The R&D laboratories focus on new product development and the development of complex molecules, cost improvement programs, process improvements and oncology product development.
As of May 31, 2021 GLS owned or co-owned 39 granted patents and had 41 pending patent applications in several countries and six pending provisional applications in India. As of March 31, 2021, company employed 213 personnel at their R&D laboratories, which constituted 13.86% of their total permanent employee strength. Their strong process research, analytical research and process chemistry research capabilities provide them significant competitive advantages.
Strong Focus on Sustainability in Operations
The company has focused on sustainability in their operations through meaningful interventions in environment management, safety initiatives in their operations and occupational health of their workforce. They have undertaken various initiatives relating to energy efficiency, recovery and reuse of solvents and water conservation, recovery and reuse to reduce their carbon footprint and be a responsible corporate citizen in their endeavour to address global environment issues. All of their manufacturing facilities currently have zero liquid discharge (ZLD) capabilities. They have an internal framework and governance structure in place for adherence to compliance standards. Their manufacturing facilities at Ankleshwar and Dahej are certified ISO 14001:2015 and ISO 45001:2018 for environment management and occupational health and safety management systems, which reflects their commitment to enhancing the environmental performance.
Cost Leadership across Products through Careful Monitoring and Continuous Effort
The company continuously strive to implement cost saving initiatives include solvent recovery and recycling, increase in batch sizes, the utilisation of new downstream equipment for filtration or drying techniques and yield improvement. Their sourcing initiatives include on-going negotiations with vendors based on the prevailing market environment and alternate vendor qualification. Their R&D initiatives include productivity improvement of existing processes through constant optimisation, process cycle time reduction, qualifying lower-cost processes for regulated markets, better recovery and recycling and backward integration of key starting materials. GLS implement these measures to reduce costs, improve efficiencies and reallocate resources to support identified growth opportunities in diverse markets.
Glenmark Life has successfully achieved cost leadership across many of its products through careful application of operations initiatives, sourcing initiatives and R&D initiatives supported through continuous efforts by Quality and Regulatory Affairs teams. Their long-term relationships with global generic companies also helps in planning capital expenditure, enhancing ability to benefit from increasing economies of scale with strong purchasing power for raw materials and a lower overall cost base, thereby maintaining a competitive cost structure to achieve sustainable growth, margins and overall profitability.
Expand the Geographic Focus, API Portfolio and Scope of the Operations
Glenmark Life intends to expand the size and scope of their business by diversifying their customer base in existing markets and increasing the geographic market coverage. The company intend to expand its presence in countries/regions that are adopting a more stringent regulatory framework and are moving towards becoming well-regulated markets such as South Korea, Taiwan, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. They also intend to create new opportunities in ROW markets by utilising manufacturing in the least developed countries through local partnerships.
GLS see the complex API business as a key growth opportunity and intend to leverage their expertise in the area of synthetic chemistry and analytical characterisation to expand their existing technology platforms to manufacture and grow their complex API portfolio in oncology, peptides and iron compounds, thereby expanding their existing portfolio of API products.
Growth of the CDMO Business
In the last 4 years, GLS has started working with innovator pharmaceutical companies in the area of CDMO, it currently operates in 2 segments (1) Lifecycle management (2) Specialty business. The current portfolio of 120 molecules globally, company believe that many molecules offer such opportunities to a new set of customers. Given their capabilities in process chemistry research, and their manufacturing and analytical research capabilities, they have the ability to attract innovator pharmaceutical companies to partner with them for providing unique solutions tailored to the needs of innovator and specialty pharmaceutical companies.
The company will leverage their process research, analytical research and chemistry capabilities to provide CDMO services for a range of multinational corporations and specialty companies. Greenfield capacity expansion of 40 acres with plan to manufacture both API and intermediates will have capacity of 800KL over the next 2-3 years. GLS' continuous focus on quality and on the sustainability of their operations makes them a serious contender to grow this business opportunity.
Expansion of Production Capacities
Glenmark Life has plan to expand its technology platform and manufacturing footprint at their Dahej and Ankleshwar facility to grow their oncology product portfolio, and implement the use of more automation in their processes to increase efficiency and improve compliance. GLS currently operates four multi-purpose manufacturing facilities with an aggregate annual total installed capacity of 765 KL as of March 31, 2022. The company intend to double its API manufacturing capabilities to 1405 KL by enhancing the existing production capacities and adding new facility at their Ankleshwar and Dahej plant during current FY 2023.
The new facility will provide a platform for the growth of their CDMO business and also add capacity for their generic API business. The company has further expansion plan with greenfield project built on a 40-acre footprint with a plan to manufacture both APIs and intermediates and will house several multi-purpose manufacturing blocks with mid to high-volume capacity. It will include a high degree of automation and comply with global regulatory standards, and will have an aggregate capacity of 800 KL and total capacity of 2205 KL by FY 2026.
Improving Financial Performance through Focus on Operational Efficiencies
The company continually aim to improve their financial performance by focusing on enhancing their operational efficiencies through initiatives such as solvent recovery and recycling, increase in batch sizes, the utilisation of new downstream equipment for filtration or drying techniques and yield improvement. The R&D initiatives include productivity improvement of existing processes through constant optimisation, process cycle time reduction, qualifying lower-cost processes for regulated markets, better recovery and recycling and backward integration of key starting materials. The company believe that these initiatives will allow it to de-risk the operations by continuing to diversify their procurement base, reduce the amount of materials that they import and procure more materials from Indian suppliers.
Experienced Management Team with Proven Track Record
Glenmark Life has a professional and experienced management team led by the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Dr. Yasir Rawjee, who has over 25 years of experience in global API industry. He leads the overall operations and is responsible for the overall business strategy. He holds a PhD from Texas A&M University, U.S.A. Prior to joining GLSL, he was the head of global API operations at Mylan Labs USA. He was also the senior VP at Matrix Laboratories Ltd and has worked in GlaxoSmithKline in the USA.The operations team is headed by Vinod Naik who has over 2 decades of industry experience, the R&D team is headed by Dr. Palle V R Acharyulu with several years of industry experience. The management team has demonstrated ability to successfully build a global API business across diverse markets supported by strong R&D, Operations, Quality & Regulatory functions and have integrated businesses with various operating activities through their cumulative years of work experience.
Proven Track Record of Strong Financial Performance
Glenmark Lifesciences has 34% compounded sales growth and 29% compounded profit growth in last 3 years with very strong EBITDA margins at ~30%. Glenmark Lifesciences is paying good dividend of Rs 21 for FY 22. Glenmark Lifesciences is cash rich, debt-free company and company is executing current on going expansion from internal accruals.
Global API Market
The key factors boosting growth of world API market are rising drug R&D activities for drug manufacturing, rising importance of generics, and increasing uptake of biopharmaceuticals. The future growth of these products is expected to remain strong and stable driven due to the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases, growing demand from the regulated markets for drugs indicated for hypertension, diabetes and cancer, and ageing population. Any increasing prevalence of chronic diseases is expected to increase drugs demand, which is expected to fuel active pharmaceutical ingredients market growth in the near future. The global API market is estimated to be around USD181.3 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% to reach to about USD259.3 billion by 2026. The market is likely to exhibit a positive outlook with growing trend towards development of innovative therapeutic drugs by various pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies.
Indian API Market
Globally, India is one of the top suppliers of bulk drugs and formulations. The country has the highest number of USFDA approved plants outside the US as well as 44% of global ANDA. The Indian generics industry can benefit substantially from the patent cliff as patents for branded molecules with cumulative global sales of ~US$ 251b are expected to expire between 2018 and 2024, opening new opportunities for the industry.
Indian pharmaceutical industry is one of the major contributors to Indian economy and it is the world’s third-largest industry by volume. The Indian bulk drug industry has grown at a CAGR of around 9% over 2016-2020. It is further expected to expand and grow at a CAGR of around 9.6% during 2021-2026.
India has a strong API domestic market and Indian API firms have several competitive advantages. India is on par with other countries in terms of technological capabilities and process efficiency. The costs are very low in India and because of the low production and labor costs companies can operate on considerably lower margins.
The major key competitors of Glenmark Lifesciences in the API market include Divis Labs, Laurus Labs, Shilpa Medicare, Aarti Drugs and Solara Active Pharma Sciences.
Conclusion
In 2020-21, around 40% of all factories in China have shut down and resulting in supply disruptions and higher costs. It has caused several major pharmaceutical countries to reconsider and reshuffle their API import sources. As the emerging markets and developing countries are pushing for local manufacturing of generics and formulations, India has a great opportunity to become one of the largest API suppliers in the world due to its fairly competitive labor market.
Currently, India imports ~68% of its API consumption from China and is highly reliant on China for fermentation-based APIs (antibiotics), feedstock and many key starting materials (KSMs). Now "China-Plus-One" factor is providing huge scope for Indian API industry.
Indian Pharma sector is now trying to reinvent itself and move forward from its long standing dependence on export of generics towards enabling the industry to become an end-to-end drug manufacturer. This includes a parallel thrust on localising API and bulk drug manufacturing. The Indian government has set up a production linked incentive (PLI) package focusing on APIs and the API Parks scheme to boost competitiveness of India’s manufacturing and promote domestic manufacturing of critical intermediates and APIs.
India has huge population of 1.35 billion, which provide one of the biggest consumer base for pharmaceutical products in the world.
Glenmark Lifesciences has 120 products globally and the total market size in terms of sales for these products was estimated to be around US$142 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow by about 6.8% over the next five years to reach to about US$211 billion by 2026. These 120 molecules comprise of 84% of the US$142 billion end-market size for the GLS portfolio, which is expected to become 91% by 2026. The future growth of these products is expected to remain very strong and stable driven by the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases, growing demand from the regulated markets for drugs indicated for hypertension, diabetes, cancer and ageing population.
Glenmark Lifesciences work towards developing 8 to 10 molecules each year, which include both high value and high volume APIs. As of May 31, 2022, company had filed 433 Drug Master Files (DMFs) and Certificates of suitability to the monographs of the European Pharmacopoeia (CEPs) across various major markets. 16 Out of 20 largest generic companies in the world are customers of Glenmark Lifesciences.
Glenmark Lifesciences is well prepared to expand the product portfolio and production capacity to capture the rising demand in API segment. GSL is going to double its production capacity within year and triple it in next 2-3 years.
Recent market correction has given one of the best investment opportunity to invest in fast growing, evergreen API segment of Pharma sector. Glenmark Lifesciences stock at cmp Rs 438 is excellent investment option for both short term and long term ( 1 year to 5 years ). It can be bought + / - 15% from cmp with 10-20 % allocation.
Thank you Ma'am
ReplyDeleteA very solid company indeed.
ReplyDeleteTimely pick.
Thanks for sharing your vision.
🌹
Thank you so much I am new and today is my first day on the blog, will follow you for life
ReplyDeleteYou are most welcome
DeleteThank you so much for the new Gem
ReplyDeleteThank you for the new pick mam. I have guessed glenmark lifescience and supriya lifescience . Finally it is glenmark lifescience!
ReplyDeleteGood guess
DeleteThank you for identifying one more Dimond from the dust. We are indebted to you M'am
ReplyDeleteThanks Mam. Gem of a pick. Good margin, good dividend yield, hgue future expansion, debt free, experienced mgmt , evergreen sector and low valuation. I was tracking this but could never muster courage to buy. Always feared there must be some undiscovered reason for low valuation. It ticks almost all boxes but still valuation is low. What may be the reason Mam?
ReplyDeleteSo that we can buy at lower price
DeleteI like that... This is the reason and will be the reason forever for making people with common sense achieve their dreams
DeleteThank you very much dear Mam.
ReplyDeleteWhat is expected target in 3 to. 5 years?
ReplyDeleteAnd thank you Ma'am once again for recommending a wonderful stock
Thank you mam :-)
ReplyDeleteHello Mam, I was reading a research report where they mentioned some risk and concern on customer and product concentration. Please share your view.
ReplyDelete1. The company’s five largest customers accounted for more than 50% of FY21 revenues with the Promoter the largest customer.
2. The company’s top 10 products accounted for 66.36% of FY21 revenue. If market growth in key products declines, or if profit margins on products sold in key products decline, results of operations could be adversely affected.
1) GSL is going to double its production capacity within year and triple it in next 2-3 years, it will also help to expand the consumer base.
Delete2) GLS has huge product portfolio of 120 molecules, It is 84% of the US$142 billion end-market size, which is expected to become 91% by 2026. The top 10 products always keep changing due to this reason GLS developing 8 to 10 molecules each year, which include both high value and high volume APIs.
Thank you very much madam.God Bless you and your family.Have a great weekend ahead
ReplyDeleteGood evening madam
ReplyDeleteI thought it may be Granules India or Glenmark Life Sciences, now I am surprised that my guess becomes true. Thank you so much madam
Good guess
DeleteThank you very much for this excellent reco. Mam.
ReplyDeleteAdd-shop has brought right issue @54. What is your about it. Is it benecial for the co.
Promoters have sold 14% shareholding around Rs100 -130 and with half of the money they will buy same stake around Rs 54 in right issue. Our blog members have sold around 155 -165 and those who are keeping free of cost shares can buy at Rs 54 in right issue but don't forget to exit at Rs108 in first opportunity.
DeleteMadam, at which date will the Addshop right issue will become available for Purchase....I am unable to see Addshop in the rights issue
DeleteConstitution of the Rights issue Committee to proceed with the Rights issue and, inter-alia,
Deletedecide the other terms and conditions of the Rights Issue, including deciding on the record date, appointment of intermediaries and other related matters.
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/174ecf68-c2d6-41ef-9149-313a108b70be.pdf
Thank you for your new pick. Madam which share will give best return in the next one year Jubilant ingrevia or Glenmark life science ..
ReplyDeleteBoth are having excellent growth potential, only time will tell that which one is going to win the race. We can watch as neutral observers but remain fully invested in both stocks.
DeleteThank you sir for your new recommendation.
ReplyDeleteRespected Rajiv sir, promotor holding almost 83℅, so in future dilution of 8℅ equities may possible, is there any impact you are seeing if promoter selling their free float?
ReplyDeleteGlenmark Life Sciences IPO was in July 2021 at price of Rs 720. The promoter holding must be brought down to 75% till July 2024. It is expected that company will dilute this 8% holding at least above Rs 1000 to fund its green field 800KL expansion project.
DeleteRespected sir,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much from the bottom of my heart...
This recommendation particularly came when we had booked our profit in Raymond. Hence this will help us...
I am understanding your style of selection for any company.
(1) Small baby of experienced/big management
(2) Baby was separated for more profitability and hence higher promotors holding %.
(3) Baby must be under expansion and preferably debt free or with manageable debt.
(4) Baby price must be under pressure due to any reason
For e.g. GLS, jubilant, JK agri, stpl, etc
Though these are my tiny understanding, based on my study of blog and replies. Please add some more fragrance to this flower if possible.
I had finalised this stock based on your above teachings since since 3/4 months. Again was sure since last 5/7 days.
I was afraid to buy due to lower confidence.
Again thank you sir...
Raxit Shah
Our stock selection criteria is very simple.
Delete1) Product quality and its future demand ( it is visible but internal of external factor can affect the demand)
2) Management capacity and quality ( It is hidden because human behaviour can change with time or in given situation)
3) Stock entry and exit price
Thanks a lot ma'am for your efforts....must say that you are a gem ....stay healthy 🙏🙏
ReplyDeleteDear Maam, will Glenmark be able to continue giving such high dividend
ReplyDeleteYes, we expect even better dividend in future.
DeleteThank you very much Maan
ReplyDeleteMam 2 questions
ReplyDelete1. Even parent company glenmark pharma is undervalued, any comments on that.
2. How is the management of Glenmark?
Sorry not tracking Glenmark Pharma.
DeleteManagement is excellent.
Good morning ma'am.....my question is regarding kcp limited...even though stock is performing extremely well and having huge assets, it did not got rerated so far. What is the outlook for cement industry you expect going forward with companies announcing aggressive expansion plans?
ReplyDeleteIf any stock fail to give 100% return in 3 years than need to sell it and reinvest again.
DeleteDear ma'am, thanks a lot for the recommendation.
ReplyDeleteThank you Rajiv Sir and Ma'am!
ReplyDeleteRecently I have started following your advice. Based on your advice I have purchased Jubilant ingrevia. And surely I will buy Glenmark Life Science. I have two Questions:
1. How much return is expected from these companies?
2. One of my friend is recommending to Buy Praj and Syngene. Can you please guide if they good buy at current level.
1) Expected return around 50 -100% in 1 -2 years and 100 - 300% in 3-5 years
Delete2) Not tracking Praj and Syngene
Thanks many for this gem Madam.
ReplyDeleteMay we know expected return?
Expected return around 50 -100% in 1 -2 years and 100 - 300% in 3-5 years
DeleteHello ma'am,
ReplyDeleteOne another DIVISLAB is also a big player in API segment. So, how is Glenmark Life different from DivisLab ?
Divi's Lab is much bigger and well established player in API segment as compared to Glenmark Life Sciences. It is almost 4 x in sales and 17 x in market cap. We expect that Glenmark Life Sciences will reduce this gap in future.
Deletehttps://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/is-glenmark-life-sciences-another-divis-in-the-making-7204741.html
Hello Ma'am,
DeleteCan Glenmark Life Science match Divis margin as it scales business in future?
It is expected that GLS will maintain the current margin ~ 30% and improve further upto 35% in future. It is also one of the best OPM.
DeleteThankyou for one more gem Mam,
ReplyDeleteI have a question for better understanding.
Is it different from jubilant Ingrevia Api & specialty chemicals sigment.
Thanks a lot.
Jubilant Ingrevia mostly related to Pyridine science, Picoline, Crop protection, Nutrition, Animal feeds, speciality ethanol etc. Now expanding in Diketene chemistry
DeleteAddshop promoter sold 981910 shares in this quarter which is of 9.26% of his holding as at march quarter. Is something is cooking inside as the promoter stake now at about 45% from 60% in last 2 quarters.
ReplyDeletePromoters have sold 14% shareholding around Rs100 -130 and with half of the money they will buy same stake around Rs 54 in right issue. Our blog members have sold around 155 -165 and those who are keeping free of cost shares can buy at Rs 54 in right issue but don't forget to exit at Rs108 in first opportunity.
DeleteYour view on Add Shop E Retail rights Issue. Priced at 54.
ReplyDeletePromoters have sold 14% shareholding around Rs100 -130 and with half of the money they will buy same stake around Rs 54 in right issue. Our blog members have sold around 155 -165 and those who are keeping free of cost shares can buy at Rs 54 in right issue but don't forget to exit at Rs108 in first opportunity.
DeleteRespected ma'am, requesting you to please answer two questions in my mind -
ReplyDelete1. I've a little FOC shares of JK agri genetic. Is there still chance of further huge gains in it ( equal to DN or DF) if held for 2-3 years more ?
2. Is RPG life science a good buy at 500 ? The parameters look good on screener
If any stock or foc shares fail to give 100% return in 3 years than need to sell it and reinvest again.
DeleteNot tracking RPG life science.
Dear madam..
ReplyDeleteWhat happens if promoter sells 8% stake in GLS ..
Is That 8% is reflected in Free float of M.cap.?.
Promoters have sold 14% shareholding around Rs100 -130 and with half of the money they will buy same stake around Rs 54 in right issue. Our blog members have sold around 155 -165 and those who are keeping free of cost shares can buy at Rs 54 in right issue but don't forget to exit at Rs108 in first opportunity.
DeleteHi mam, U have quoted that jubilant ingreiva and Glenmark life scince are best multibagger to be in new investors portfolio. Is it ok if as a new investor, i do invest my entire available funds in these both shares or should i maintain any ratio of investment.
ReplyDelete20% is the maximum limit of allocation in each stock
DeleteHi sir, add shop rights issue is announced at rs 54, will stock price go dwn to that level
ReplyDelete1) Promoters have sold 14% shareholding around Rs100 -130 and with half of the money they will buy same stake around Rs 54 in right issue. Our blog members have sold around 155 -165 and those who are keeping free of cost shares can buy at Rs 54 in right issue but don't forget to exit at Rs108 in first opportunity.
DeleteDear Mam,
ReplyDeleteWhy the price of GLS is so depressed? Even though it command great stats than its peers. Its ROE is 42% with no practical debt.
Market generally wait for few quarters to see the consistency in results than give the higher P/E and stock gets rerated.
DeleteDear Ma'am, many Thanks for the recommendation.
ReplyDeleteHi Ma'am,
ReplyDelete1) What is your view on Add-shop E-retail rights issue?
2) Has Raymond pledged 27% of its share ? If its true , how should we view this?
3) Was going through Dai-ichi Karkaria's annual report. It appears Fy23 will be turnaround year for them. They are expecting 43% revenue growth. And have bid for 3 very large long term projects in oil sector which may be game changer for them. Mgmt also appears to be quite bullish on new product launches and new geography penetration.
1) Promoters have sold 14% shareholding around Rs100 -130 and with half of the money they will buy same stake around Rs 54 in right issue. Our blog members have sold around 155 -165 and those who are keeping free of cost shares can buy at Rs 54 in right issue but don't forget to exit at Rs108 in first opportunity.
Delete2) Raymond promoters have pledged 27% of their shareholding in last quarter. Nothing to worry about it.
3) Yes, Dai-Ichi is expected to cross break-even in coming quarters and start giving constant positive results.
Goodmorning Mam.
ReplyDeleteMam wanted to change the current dmat account.Can you share which account you are using.
Also apart from icici direct what other options do you trust mam?
HDFC, SBI, Kotak , Axis are good and secure.
DeleteDear mam thanks for your new stock pick.Today buy GLS 500 AT 475.mam is it a good price and a lot of thanks for your pick raymond as this is my first multibagger stock in my protfolio.🙏🙏🙏
ReplyDeleteIt is good price, now need to hold GLS for few year with patience.
DeleteThank you so much mam🙏
DeleteHi Ma'am,
ReplyDeleteGood Day!
Is the fall in Raymond purely due to profit booking?
Thanks
SM
Raymond went up 50% in last one week (from 850 to 1275), some profit booking is normal after sudden rise.
DeleteMadam, why dai-ichhi karkare is under performing last 3 qtrs and what is the present status of fire insurance claim.
ReplyDeleteWhat is DN fire incident status and when it will start their operations are normalized.
Stock is under performing due to low sales no profit. It is expected to cross break-even in coming quarters. 10% claim received remaining will be received in coming quarter.
DeleteAssessment for damage and loss in Deepak Nitrite fire incident is under process, company will update on it after getting the report.
Mam will we get dividend of 21 if we buy glenmark now
ReplyDeleteInterim Dividend Rs 10.5 is already paid in Nov 21. You will get final dividend of Rs 10.5 in Aug -Sept.
DeleteHello Mam, Is there any thing wrong going with AksharChem or is it a normal correction?
ReplyDeleteAlong with recent market correction its poor Q 4 result is putting additional selling pressure.
DeleteSatish Rangani board member of snl bearings has sold 199 shares around 326 levels.. (Feb 2022)
ReplyDeleteIs this a matter of concern..
no
DeleteMam If nothing worry about dai-ichhi karkare then is it good to buy some quantity and average at current price or wait and average incase if price come down further
ReplyDeleteYes it can be added up to 20% ( 3 years completion date 8 April 2024).
DeleteThank you so much mam
DeleteHi Sir/Medam,
ReplyDeleteI'm holding 2700 shares of ASRL at price an average price of 94/- and missed to book profit.
Now as Add-shop E-retail announced the rights issue (43% discount on CMP), whether this affects the share price?
So, Can I participate in the rights issue or avoid or exit the stock?
Please provide your view.
Stock price will not go up till completion of right issue.
DeletePromoters have sold 14% shareholding around Rs100 -130 and with half of the money they will buy same stake around Rs 54 in right issue. Our blog members have sold around 155 -165 and those who are keeping free of cost shares can buy at Rs 54 in right issue but don't forget to exit at Rs108 in first opportunity.
It is not advisable to have any emotional attachment with stocks. Need to buy at right time at right price and vice versa. Never hesitate in booking the profit.
Mam,asrl has expand its distribution. So promoter sold holding. please give your advice
DeleteIf you have free of cost shares then you can apply in right issue.
DeleteHi Rajiv Sir,
ReplyDeleteDoes Rights issue creates any pressure on the existing CMP, as the rights issue is more than 55% discount.
I couldn't do FOC at that time as it didn't reached 100% and missed it, my buy avg is 84.62.
Could you please suggest.
Promoters have sold 14% shareholding around Rs100 -130 and with half of the money they will buy same stake around Rs 54 in right issue. Our blog members have sold around 155 -165 and those who are keeping free of cost shares can buy at Rs 54 in right issue but don't forget to exit at Rs108 in first opportunity.
DeleteIt is not advisable to have any emotional attachment with stocks. Need to buy at right time at right price and vice versa. Never hesitate in booking the profit.
Respected Mam, I have allocated 10% only in Dai-ichi. Can I add upto 20% at current CMP?
ReplyDeleteYes it can be added up to 20% ( 3 years completion date 8 April 2024).
DeleteHello Madam, as government is focusing on organic farming,natural farming can I pick "aries agro" now or should I wait for any correction...please suggest any other fertilizer stock madam which I can hold for next 2 years
ReplyDeleteYou can continue to hold Deepak Fertilisers
DeleteRespected Mam,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the Ratio in add shop right issue
1:1 or2:1
Thankyou very much
As per available data of 49 Cr issue size @ 54, total 90.74L shares will be issued. It is almost 1 share for every 2 share held on record date.
DeleteDear Mam,
ReplyDeleteGujarat govt. issues stop work notice to Deepak Nitrate plant. How would be the impact? Should I add more to my portfolio in this situation ? Your valuable comments will be helpful to me.
Thanks and regards
Subhasis Sur
The Company has kept all concerned authorities informed and the Plant operations are expected to resume in a day or two upon clearance of damaged warehouse.
DeleteAny active stock can be added within 15% from suggested price within 3 years from suggested date.
When will right issue of add shop open ? And which is the record date
ReplyDeleteStill record date is not finalised, company will give update on it.
DeleteMaam I missed to book profit and now holding all including bonus shares at an avg price of 108. Is it advisable to buy at discounted price now through Right issue.
DeleteYour average price is very high, you can apply in right issue and exit with some profit.
DeleteMam, DN is approx. near half of it's all time high. Is there any problem holding DN if I have patience to hold for 5 years?
ReplyDeleteWhat price it may achieve?
If any stock fail to give 100% return in 3 years than need to sell it and reinvest again. In case of DN you have to wait again for 3 years and then decide accordingly.
DeleteMam, Can I add DN in SIP mode ,I have added Jubilant Ingrevia and GLS and Diachi Kakaria upto 20 %
DeleteMam,I am even planning to add Asian Energy upto 10%
DeleteAny stock can be bought within 15% from suggested price within 3 years from suggested date. It is not advisable to buy any stock which has already given 100% return until it is re-suggested on the blog.
DeleteMam, what is expected PAT and EPS for GLS by FY26.
ReplyDeletePAT ~ 800 and EPS ~ 80
DeleteDear Madam,
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for the recommendation of Raymond, it was doubled since your recommendations. I am purchasing the recent stocks (Jub. Ingrevia and GLS) in a systematic investment process as and when there is a decline in the stock price.
If you can advise on the future prospects of Bhilwara Tech (BTTL), it will be great.
warm regards
VST
Sorry not tracking BTTL
DeleteHi Mam,
ReplyDeleteRaymond is back to 970! what could be the possible reason for such a deep correction after hitting the high of 1278?
ASRL: Promotor integrity is something that we look at while selecting any stock. Add shop promotor has been selling shares since last few months at higher price without justifying proper reason. Now they have announced right issue @54 and the same promotor will buy the stock at lower price under right issue. This doesn't looks a good practice from the corporate governance point of view. Would you like to share your view point on this?
Thanks,
Mehul
Severe market correction and profit booking after sudden rise of 50% within week.
DeleteThank you madam, Madam should we sell Asian energy? The oil prices seems to be going up considering that last two quators of the company hasnt been as good, Do you expect it to be better in future?
ReplyDeleteFirst need hold the stock for 3 years, If any stock fail to give 100% return in 3 years than need to sell it and reinvest again.
DeleteThank you madam, if the company isnt doing well in high oil prices, do you expect it do well in the future? Has anything changed in the investment thesis
DeleteNothing change in the fundamental of company or in investment thesis. There is only change in your confidence in last few months due to deep market correction.
DeleteDAI Ichi jumped Rs.50. Any spl news?
ReplyDeleteThere is no any spl news. It is just pullback rally after deep correction.
DeleteHello Rajiv sir,
ReplyDelete1.By when we can expect deepak fertilizer to cross mcap of 25k cr and does it has potential to even go beyond that
2. Are they expected to announce next capex as industry has huge potential
We have to review our investment in any stock after every 3 years, until it is giving consistent return we will continue to hold it. In case of Deepak Fertiliser it has given excellent return up till now, we will review its performance again in Oct 2025.
DeleteSurana solar @22
ReplyDeletePurchase kar Santa hu kya?
Any stock can be bought within 15% from suggested price within 3 years from suggested date. It is not advisable to buy any stock which has already given 100% return until it is re-suggested on the blog.
Deletehello mam, is SLBM good and safe? should we opt for it?
ReplyDeletenot advisable
Deleteok thank you!
Deletemaam would you look in defence sector. do you track data pattern
ReplyDeleteNot tracking
DeleteGreen energy and EV is emerging and has bright future, I request if it's possible to check and explore stocks of green energy and EV will be good for long term investment. Like Borosil on green energy
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking it
DeleteMaruti, Mahindra, Tata Motors are the major Indian player in the EV segment.
Mam do you track HT Media if yes is this on buy range?
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking it
DeleteMadam , Raymond has crossed 100% return, if I add further ,the average is with in your suggested price . May I add this in my portfolio.
ReplyDeleteIf it is bought at Rs 454 with 10 -20% allocation then what is point to average at Rs 1000? People will buy it even at 2000 but for our blog members it is not advisable to buy 15% from suggested price within 3 years from suggested date. It is also not advisable to buy any stock which has already given 100% return until it is re-suggested on the blog.
DeleteDear Madam,
ReplyDeleteJubilant Industries is now 400, can i buy now. I missed it earlier
Don't miss this time and buy Jubilant Ingrevia with 10 -20% allocation.
DeleteDolly Mam, Crude is now $120 a barrel. This is very bad for country like India which is 80% dependent on crude for its industry and business. When do you think, things will be normal and Indian stock market will be normal again. Will it be 2025? Your views please.
ReplyDeleteFuel prices are very much stable around Rs 90-100 / litres and it is normal. It has nothing to do-with stock market.
DeleteStock market is also running normal, correction is also integral part of this business or market correction is just process of transferring the money from impatient to patience investors.
Mam ji, i have ingrevia upto 12%, and glenmark upto 5%.
ReplyDeleteSince raymond can still go 2-3x from here, i am not taking out principle. Very confused to add ingrevia or GLS
It has already given 200% return and most of the blog members have booked the profit, If you are not booking the profit then it is your problem. Always book partial profit around 100% and keep the free of cost shares for longer term.
DeleteMam question:
ReplyDelete1. GLS 40% revenue comes from Glenmark pharma, and glenmark's pharma site at Baddi is being invested under USFDA, will this cause any issues?
2. Neuland labs is trading at 1300Cr mcap with mcap/sales less than 2. Is it not a great buying oppurtunity mam?
USFDA inspection is usual requirement to sell the products in US.
DeleteMaam same like GLS , Heranba Industries also seems undervalued with good financials and with expansion plans . Can you please share your views .
ReplyDeleteSorry not tracking
DeleteDear Mam, Raymond has gone down like rocket out of fuel. Looks like big selling.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
It gone up also with same pace, now it will consolidate around 900 before next move.
DeleteHi Ma'am,
ReplyDeleteApparently that this company imports 40% of key starting material from China. Is it true? If yes, could this be a risk to the business?
Currently, India imports ~68% of its API consumption from China and is highly reliant on China for fermentation-based APIs (antibiotics), feedstock and many key starting materials (KSMs). Now "China-Plus-One" factor is providing huge scope for Indian API industry.
DeleteGLS itself is API manufacture and it is very positive for company.
Madam i have entered recently. Pls suggest 10 stocks to built my portfolio. Tq
DeleteTen stocks are too much you can start with two three stocks and then add up to 5 stock in next 6-7 months. Jubilant Ingravia , snl bearing and Glenmark life science are good option to add at CMP
DeleteYes madam. Tq. And i have some surplus money. Can u suggest atleast 3 more stocks to built my new portfolio
DeleteGyd evening madam. i have some money left after buying the 3 stocks suggested by u. Can u suggest atleast 3 more stocks to built my portfolio
DeleteThanks for your New Stock Suggestion . Madam I have missed to book profit of ASRL, Now I have 299 share at average price of 83.19. Please tell me should I sell all share at CMP or Hold till it again reach 100%.
ReplyDeleteAs suggested by Mam in past.Please hold it for max 3 years...in the meantime if it doubles...exit or else exit post 3 years completion.
DeleteSame is with me....lost opp due to bonus and was not able to exit.
You can keep the stock up to 3 years, if you will get the chance then book profit at 100% otherwise exit after 3 years.
DeleteDear madam, i have following our blog from 5 years, now my portfolio is more than 50 lakh thanks to you,. Please clarify the following cases madam
ReplyDelete1) as per your suggestion, i am selling 50% shares once the stock gets double amd keeping remaining shares for wealth creation. By doing so my portfolio will have more stocks in coming years..i studied that the more stocks we holding the less alpha we create.please enlight us
2) i have 100% allocation on equity (direct stocks) as i am comfortable in this. But as per the rule "never keep all eggs in a same basket", should i divert some into real estate (i don't know nothing about real estate), gold, fd etc. (My age 34)
3) as per my rule i wanted to sell Raymond 30% shares at 1250 but I tempted not to do as it comes under STCG (15%}, if i hold 2 months then it comes in LTCG (10%). Is it wise decision, if not how to overcome this psychology.
Thank you madam. And i pray god that your family lives sound and healthy
1) it is not necessary to hold all the stock but you can concentrate your portfolio by selling the non performance stocks
Delete2) if someone is happy with small profit and don't want to take risk then it is okay to diversifiey the investment. But if someone want big profit and huge portfolio then need concentrated portfolio in equity.
3) Always need to develop big earning mentality not big saving mentality. Saving mentality will never allow the people to earn big
Ma'am, Raymond is currently ~930, is it still worth buying now? does it go up further with a growth potential?
ReplyDeleteAs per mam says several times, we must buy only with in + or - 15% range, so we should not buy raymond now.
DeleteYes it seems. Thank you for the reply.
DeleteWhat is your advice on averaging any stocks at lower level?
ReplyDeleteIs it good or not?
Or we have to buy a new stock at good levels
Allocation can be increased up to 10 or 20% in respective stock. For example if someone has a only 10% allocation Jubilant Ingravia then on 20th June it has given very good opportunity to added low level of 415 to increase the allocation upto 20% today it was trading at 496. It is not advisable to add any expiring stock which is close to 3 years.
DeleteYour view on jubilant pharmo, revenue is 6000CR market value is 5300 CR
ReplyDeletesorry not tracking it
DeleteMadam..in this market correction
ReplyDelete1) is it good to sell one stock which corrected more (40%) to buy other stock which is not corrected much.(5-10%)
2) is it good to buy new stock or add existing stock which is at buying range.ex:add ingrevia (10% holding) or buy Glenmark life (new position)
1) it is good to sell stock which has given 100% profit and make your share free of cost. It is also good to sell non performing stock which has completed 3 year in your portfolio without giving 100% return
Delete2) it depends on how many stock in your portfolio and how many performing stock in your portfolio. If your portfolio is already diversified then it is not necessary to buy every stock
Maam,
ReplyDeleteFirst covid, Ukraine war, Recession, Taiwan, Inflation, Increasing geo political tensions, Seems next 1-2 years will be tough for world. What is your view? Where India will be in these context.
All above situations or event have given great investment. we expect that this type of opportunity will continue to come in future.
Delete--> Dolly Madam, I'm a new investor
ReplyDeleteI want to invest in Varun beverages,Sterlite technologies,Nazara technologies ,Mtar technologies is it right time to enter this stocks madam
--> i have invested in some of the stocks from suggestions made by you like jubilant ingrevia,gls,snl in the blog... Madam please also suggest me 3-4 stocks which I can invest for 2-3 years holding period.
Sorry not tracking above mentioned stocks. You can invest in 20% Jubilant Ingrevia 20% Glenmark life science and 10% snl bearing. You can continue to keep 50% Fund with you to invest in coming months
DeleteDolly Madam, Would like to understand stop loss strategy even for long term investement (3 years) because without a stop loss there are chances of loosing most of the capital. I understand it varies from individuals and depends on risk apetite. Is it advisable to wait till 30% loss and then go for sell ?. I am factoring 30% due to all external uncontrollable factors but company fundamental doesn't allow stock to go down beyond 30%.
ReplyDeleteStop loss is for those who want to mitigate the risk in equity investment. It also indicate that lack of confidence in the company and in oneself. It is also true that if someone unable to hold 20 - 30% loss making stock then he cannot also hold 200- 300% profit making stock.
Deletemy suggestion to all blog members
ReplyDeletePls read all earlier messages before shooting a question. Most are repeat questions testing the patience of the person answering. Most rules are clear.
1. Buy within 15% of suggested price
2. book 50% profit at 100% gain and make balance 50% free of cost
3. if a share doesnt move for 3 years from suggested date please exit
4. also keep a 30% stop loss from suggested price if anyone has any doubts.
everyday asking 100 questions on similar lines doesnt help.
Well said
Deleteits right...every blog member first read the investment rational and previous questions and their answers related a particular stocks and after that if they have any doubt remain than he should ask.
DeleteMadam, earlier i booked profit and took back my principal amount, now i wish to second time buy of the following stocks. I have fully invested in glenmark life sciences and jubilant ingreava. Your suggestion is a precious for my life.
ReplyDelete1. AKSHERCHEM chemicals
2. Asian energy services
3. Shree pushkar chemicals
4. Deepak fertiliser
5. Raymond
6. Dai-ichhi.
7. Jubilant industries ( profit booked @ 500)
8. Kamdhenu
9. Lakshmi organics.
Everyone is asking same questions again & again...pls read all rules & regulations...
DeleteNeed to stick with investment decision for at least 3 years and if any stock fail to give 100% return then exit. Free of cost share can be hold or sold depends on your fund requirement or holding capacity,
DeleteDear Blog members , please read invest rules given below
ReplyDeletehttps://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2015/?m=0
Most of us are graduates and matured..Dont ask childish questions on blog..
Thanks
Deletehttps://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2021/01/investment-summary-past-performance-and.html
Mam for your time and provide such quality stocks with explanation.
ReplyDeleteThis year how many stocks you are recommending.Already 3 stocls suggested how many more are there.
I need to arrange fund accordingly
We will go at least 5 stock in this year. It will be in Sept-Oct and Nov -Dec
DeleteMam
ReplyDeleteWhat are your views on manappuram finance ? Bought @93. Stock has been beaten down quite hard without much change in it's fundamentals. P/B <1 .
sorry not tracking it in recent past
DeleteMam, Some analyst are saying that DN may go downside till 1400. Because of bad results in upcoming 2 qtrs. What is your opinion?
ReplyDeleteWill expansions start showing good results after 2 qtrs?
Stock has already given good return. Free of cost share can be hold or sold depends on your fund requirement or holding capacity.
Delete10 - 20% fluctuation is normal in current market condition so nothing to panic about such volatility.
Dear madam.. please guide us in the following Ques.
ReplyDelete1)Real estate vs equity which is better in terms of returns for longtime (please explain with reason madam.so everyone in our blog will understand)
2) in our portfolio how many no of stocks should we have (minimum to maximum and concentrated to diversified)
Thank you madam for your efforts..love you so much
1) Real estate business required much higher capital than equity investment. Real estate is low return and high risk for retail buyers.
Delete2) 5-10 stocks are sufficient
Madam, earlier i booked profit and took back my principal amount, now i wish to second time buy of the following stocks. I have fully invested in glenmark life sciences and jubilant ingreava. Your suggestion is a precious for my life. Why i am asking this question is some stocks are ot completed 3 years.
ReplyDelete1. AKSHERCHEM chemicals
2. Asian energy services
3. Shree pushkar chemicals
4. Deepak fertiliser
5. Raymond
6. Dai-ichhi.
7. Jubilant industries ( profit booked @ 500)
8. Kamdhenu
9. Lakshmi organics.
It is not advisable to buy any stock which has already given 100% return or completed 3 years, until it is re-suggested on the blog with revised entry price. It is also not advisable to add any expiring stock which is close to 3 years.
DeleteDear Mam - what is your view on capital goods sector and also view on Elecon Engg
ReplyDeleteCapital goods sector is having good growth potential. Not tracking Elecon Engg.
DeleteMam,Can good under value stock from capital good sector in your knowledge?
DeleteIf I will come across any good stock in buying range then I will update it on blog
DeleteYour view on TN petro chemical
ReplyDeleteMam
ReplyDeleteThis question is just for educational purpose. Why do high ROCE companies like castrol and exide trade at low valuation?
Respected Madam, In Blog suggested stocks some stock will double within a year..some will take 2 or 3 yr..
ReplyDeleteWhy is it so...
Mam, Some technical analyst are saying that DN may consolidate in 1200-1400 or 1400-1800 range for 18 to 24 months.
ReplyDeletePlease share your guidance mam
Thanks for all the recommendations and knowledge sharing. Your Pick Raymond helped my portfolio. All other losses are covered by just this one stock. Your earlier picks also helped me but this is quick and good.
ReplyDeleteMy question is, it looks like USA is already in recession and will know for sure in few weeks. what would be the effect of this on Indian stock marker. Thanks for all your help.
Hello Mam, When will the new stock be published and from which industry? Thanks.
ReplyDelete