Dear Readers
We have received some common comments about falling stock prices, some stocks are not moving up, which one need to hold or sell, TCI XPS demerger etc. Hopefully you will find answers in below given details.
In December 2015 update was given to reduce the exposure up to 10% in some stocks due to floods in Q3, now it is not applicable except Chemfab Alkalie. We will take the decision about it after seeing the year end result of Chemfab Alkalie, management has approved again 10 crore fresh inter-corporate deposit for Teamec Chlorates.
http://dolly-bestpicks.blogspot.com/2015/12/update-on-waterbase-jk-agri-and-chemfab.html
No change in fundamentals of any stock posted on the blog.
Record date of TCI XPS demerger will be announced after getting the approved copy of verdict from High Court. Hopefully it will be before end of April.
Some investors lost money in good companies due of lack of belief. Those investors who will identify and buy good quality stocks in temporary troubled situations will get much better returns than others who entered at higher price. Once troubled company will return back to normal operation than stock price will also go up to normal price i.e. Waterbase came down from 176 to 61 due to floods in Q3 and now it start moving up again.
In the series of Best Stock Picks next stock will be posted on or before 08.04.2016. There will not be any clue to guess the stock.
Next stock is having very strong fundamental and high growth potential. It is trading at rock bottom price and providing wonderful opportunity for short term as well as for long term investment.
Thank you Madam for the update on all stocks. I started following your blog since last week and I have a vested interest in many stocks. Considering my investment is long term (at least 5 years), can I buy any of the other stocks which you mentioned as 'HOLD' at CMP? Appreciate your reply.
ReplyDeleteSure you can buy 'hold' stocks but 'buy' stocks are ready to give good profit near year end results.
DeleteThanks for the update Ma'm...waiting for the next recommendation
ReplyDeleteHi Mam,
ReplyDeleteKamdhenu Ipsat is almost near recommended price,can we buy by considering growth in paint business -for long term -5-7 years ?
Thanks,
~Siva
Sure you can buy it now.
DeleteThank u mam
ReplyDeleteVery good morning mam.
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing valuable information,it gives immense confidence among our blog readers.
Thank You Madam.
ReplyDeleteOnce a group of monkeys were very much impressed by the way farmers grew bunches of groundnuts just by planting few seedlings. They too decided to grow groundnuts and followed the same procedure as followed by the farmers, but in few days: forget about the bunches they even lost their seedlings.
ReplyDeleteReason: every morning they used to pluck out the plants and see whether bunches of nuts have grown.
So, lets not be monkeys and wait for sufficient time to reap the benefits of our investment.
Repeatedly asking Dolly madam about hold/buy/switch on the recommended stocks may not be that advisable as she knows to update any positive/negative happenings.
Yes you are right...most of the reader directly ask same question without reading previous comments...Interested investor always read all the comments.
DeleteThank you for your valuable advise. We should be firm in uncertain markets.
DeleteThanks mam for boosting our confidence.
ReplyDeleteWaterbase insider buying disclosure. How would you interpret it? Promoter showing interest at such prices?
ReplyDeleteYes promoters knows better than us.
DeleteDolly Ji,
DeleteYes Promotors know better. But my question is, do you think all Insider buying is indicating a Price Discovery?
Can there be no other reasons? Like release of Pledge or since Promotor already has 52% stake now he is adding another 2 %.
Can that not meant that he has some worries of getting Acquired? So he wants to topup proactively?
This is what I meant How would you Interpret it?
Market has such a short memory of Positive aspects of all stocks but strong memory of anything negative. Huge behavioral bias.
ReplyDeleteYes fully agreed, some time decision from best management can also go wrong i.e VW and TATA.
DeleteDolly Ji, if at all you use dividend discount modle, what rate of expected return do you take?
ReplyDeleteAnd you take infinite time or say 10 years as effective life of company?
Any thing above 12 % is good.
Delete1) and what about time period?
Delete2) Also, why you do not want to consider any Free cash flow? Do you not think Dividend is just a portion of Total Free cash flow that a firm can generate. Then are you not leaving a huge chunk on table? I mean taking Dividend only will not undermine the Valuation?
Thank you so much Madam. Its very clear now...
ReplyDeleteHi Dolly Mam, Please suggest your next recommendation so that we should not predict which day of the month you will announce. Last two recos what you suggested are on 2nd Friday of the month. So people are predicting the same. Please suggest in a way that we will not have any clue. Thank you Mam.
ReplyDeleteWell noted
DeleteHi madam,
ReplyDeletePlz can u tell what will be the price range of ur next stock pick??
Recently we have seen heavy correction in the market. Some quality stocks are trading still at good discount which can give return in short term as well as in long term.
Deletethank you mam for giving courage to hold. waiting for next pick eagerly
ReplyDeleteMadam: Atleast tell only price range of the new stock as funds need to be arranged.
ReplyDeleteRecently we have seen heavy correction in the market. Some quality stocks are still trading at good discount which can give decent return in short term as well as in long term, so price don't matter.
DeleteThank you so much mam,for your advise & guidance. I would kindly request you to pls. update above given excelsheet whenever there is any change of your opinion about any of the stock given above. Thank you so much ones again & God bless you.
ReplyDeleteSure
Deletehi madam, i came to know of this blog only recently, so didnt get to buy your old recc stocks. But i see that some are trading below ur recc price or close to it (eg Kamdhenu, Surana, JK Agri). Then, can I buy them now ? I asked because u have not given buy on them but Hold.
ReplyDeleteAlso, would like to know ur view on Orient Beverages at the price range of Rs.130 to 150/
Sure you can buy 'hold' stocks but 'buy' stocks are ready to give good profit near year end results.
DeleteThanks madam for the summary. Just would like to know why you have recommended buy for tiil,dtil and tci even though all these stocks are trading at more than your recommended price. Where as for few stocks which are trading at almost your recommended price or even below recommended price.
ReplyDeleteAny specific reason for this?
Sure you can buy 'hold' stocks but 'buy' stocks are ready to give good profit near year end results.
DeleteSurana solar was recommended at 29 not 23
ReplyDeleteNope, 23 is correct....
DeleteMadam, do you suggest if we sell the TCI after the record date. You were commenting in the previous one that it will reach present price after 2-3 yrs. your opinion please
ReplyDeleteNeed wait and see the final price on demerger date than take the decision accordingly. XPS may be totally free of cost if TCI will sustain the price above 225.
DeleteNote - Demerged business is only 30% of total TCI business.
Dolly Ji, If we exclude the TCI xps then the parent business model is below average profitability also moderate growth. Then do you not think post demerger of such a high margin and high growth business unit (TCI XPS) will correct the prices for Parent company very much? Why would you assume just 20-30% correction post demerger?
DeleteJust curious on your Thoughts!
SCS is high margin and generating similar revenue to XPS. Seaway is also fast growing high margin business.
DeleteIt is just matter of short time, these stocks will start moving up near year end results.
ReplyDeleteHi mam
ReplyDeleteIf tci xps lists at 300-500 then also it is worth holding for long term period ?? as it will be like free of cost for who will buy tci ..
Yes it is worth to hold for long term
Deletedear madam,
ReplyDeletejust a thought regarding the demerged TCI XPS listing price..considering the cash eps being Rs 17 and 30% is contributed by the XPS biz,which would make it around 4 and the considering the p/e quoting at a modest 25 which is the above current p/e of tci(16)..would Rs100 be a fair price to expect?please let know if this thought process is correct.thank you
I think EPS is Rs 10.84 ,though its 30% of revenue ,its contributes to 35%+ to profit hence we can assume it as 4 Rs and no. of shares is half of TCI hence EPS becomes approximates Rs 8. as per industry P/E it should be Rs 400 and above..we wil have to wait and wait.. and price of TCI after de-merger will be around Rs 100-120..but it will increase after few quarter result as its has high margin Logicstis business.
DeleteHi Maam ! which date is finalized for the demerger of TCI XPS from TCI?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Raja Y
still record date of demerger is not announced
DeleteMadam surana is selling even below the recommended price, so is it a good idea to add? why do you prefer dtil and technocraft? thanks for your clarification
ReplyDeleteThanks
you can add Surana Solar for long term investment. Technocraft is value buy below 200 and it can give decent gain in short term as well as for long term
DeleteMadam please provide the stock you had promised for
ReplyDeleteInsecticides is best stock for investment in agri sector
DeleteMadam you had provided that on 8/4/16 you would give us a stock . I have invested in insectides at 340. Please comment if purchase price is okay . And please comment if you would provide the stock as you told
ReplyDelete"stock will be posted on or before 08.04.2016."
DeleteInsecticide was posted on 01. 04.2016
Madam,
ReplyDeleteWe are eagerly waiting for your next stock, you had promised it will be posted on or before 8th April 2016, please let us know when are you publishing it, Thank you.
Delete"stock will be posted on or before 08.04.2016."
Insecticide was posted on 01. 04.2016
Dear Madam,
ReplyDeleteWe are eagerly awaiting your next stock to be published as you have promised that it would be posted on or before 8th April 2016, please let us know when you will be posting it, Thank You.
Delete"stock will be posted on or before 08.04.2016."
Insecticide was posted on 01. 04.2016
ok you mean it was Insecticide only.
ReplyDeleteDear Madam,
ReplyDeleteI had bought Donear at Rs.34/- but currently its trading around Rs.29/-, I am planning to add more, Is it the right time to add more.?
Madam,
Deleteawaiting your reply.
Hi.
ReplyDeleteWould like to know your opinion about V2Retail. Is it a good for long term investment(3 years)?
What we can expect in returns and can we enter at CMP.
Thanks in advance
What are the long term prospects of Cosmo films is it worth buying @ rs 350 approximately how much return one can expect from these levels
ReplyDeleteMadam we are eagerly looking for your next recommendation. We appreciate your guidance.
ReplyDeleteMadam, do you track any company in pharma space?
ReplyDelete